Analysis: Why Ashraf was saved, and Gilani left for dead

One theory has it that Supreme Court was not very keen on knocking off another premier after showing Gilani the door.

Yousaf Raza Gilani was short-changed.

Even if one considers that the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has mastered the art of the unexpected under the leadership of Asif Ali Zardari, the events of recent days are confounding.

Until a few months ago, writing a letter to Swiss authorities to effectively reignite Pakistan’s interest in graft cases against President Zardari was a point of contention so great that a prime minister was sacrificed in the resistance effort.

In fact, another one of the king’s (former) men, former law minister Babar Awan, also fell as a result of this case, while PPP’s legal ace, Aitzaz Ahsan, was cut down to size after being made to defend a knowingly unwinnable and untenable stand, and given strict political parameters that often forced him to make absurd arguments and statements, both in court and outside. It must have been difficult for him. But what was it for? So that Naek could have taken the credit later?

Either due to circumstances, or his limited political standing, the man brought in as the new prime minister was almost universally accepted to be a temporary arrangement; another sacrifice.

The signs were aplenty. Even while the government consented to writing the letter late last month, under the fresh legal guidance of Farooq H Naek, friction was observed over the wording of the letter. Later, the government challenged the show-cause given to the Prime Minister Ashraf – giving rise to speculation that this was just another delay tactic by the government.

The court’s renewed belligerence, threatening to restart the contempt process against Premier Ashraf, only gave this more credence.

But that didn’t happen. Law Minister Naek’s draft letter was accepted on Wednesday.

What changed?

One theory has it that the Supreme Court was not very keen on knocking off another premier after showing Yousaf Raza Gilani the door. Having already made their point, the judiciary was willing to be softer in its stance. This school of thought pointed to Justice Asif Saeed Khosa’s statements during the hearings that the court was not keen on dismissing another premier, and that the bench was keen on resolving this issue.

This theory fails to answer why the government would not readily exploit the court’s hesitation. In fact, the draft letter, at least what has been shown publically, isn’t very, if at all, different from what the court wanted in the first place. It is hardly a reprieve – especially relative to what all was sacrificed. It mentions presidential immunity. That is all.

Aitzaz could have done this easily, and Gilani would have kept his job. In fact, a week before Gilani was disqualified, The Express Tribune ran a story on its front page stating that the letter would, in fact, be written in coming days. The story was from immaculate PPP sources.

But the letter never came. There was a sudden change of heart. Instead, Gilani was told that the line was that the letter, under no circumstances, would be written. There was no room for negotiation.

Gilani followed, and ultimately was booted from office and shunned from electoral politics for five years. The one thing that he took with him, political martyrdom, also stands diluted given that the PPP ultimately wrote a letter – without much fuss. Once in the forefront, even after his removal, Gilani has now floated into obscurity – angered statements against the courts appearing once in a while.

The euphoria of his great sacrifice has died down.

Why?

You see, there is a fundamental difference between Gilani and Ashraf: The man from Multan had a price on his head.

Remember his audacious and fiery outbursts against the army, against the army chief, against the judiciary and the chief justice? Outbursts that were not only limited to political gatherings and meetings, but made on the floor of the National Assembly, and carried as banner headlines in newspapers, and breaking news on television.

Remember that Gilani interview to a Chinese newsagency, which caused immense embarrassment to the army and ISI chiefs?  Right after his fiery outbursts, remember his unceremonious sacking of Defence Secretary Lt-Gen (retd) Naeem Khalid Lodhi – a man considered a close friend of the top brass of the GHQ?

These things don’t go unpunished, not in Pakistan. The pressure on President Zardari was probably great. He president didn’t want to sack Gilani. That would be too blatant. So the plan to write the letter was shelved; Gilani left to the mercy of the court, not allowed to write the letter that Naek and Raja Pervaiz ultimately did. The consequences were known to all; the reasons, perhaps not.

A man who had ventured new territory in terms of taking a stand for parliament while in the top office of the country, Gilani has probably realised that his party, his co-chairman, bartered him for political expediency. They turned their backs on him. Instead, they brought in a compliant replacement.

And those who Gilani offended now hound his son.

Did he know? Did Aitzaz know? The frenzied meetings between the PPP’s leadership and Gilani after the court accepted the draft letter suggest that he probably didn’t.

Another masterstroke by the president; another willing sacrifice by the PPP at the altar of undemocratic forces.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 12^th, 2012.