The Iran nuclear crisis

Iran, Israel, US are engaged in brinkmanship with potential of becoming global crisis with implications for Pakistan.

During the last few months, Israel has stepped up its threats of a unilateral strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. With the US Congress on its side and elections only a few weeks away, it finds it politically expedient to build pressure on Washington to lay down before Iran certain ‘red lines’, which would invite a military response. It is indeed ironic that Israel, which is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), is threatening an NPT signatory state for supposedly not complying with the treaty. Understandably, the US has rejected the Israeli demand, as it would prefer to retain strategic options rather than tie itself down to a military course, which neither the establishment nor the US public has the stomach for. Moreover, according to US intelligence estimates, Iran is “not on the verge of having a nuclear weapon” and has “not made a decision to pursue one”. However, US President Barack Obama has stated categorically that the US will not accept Iran building a nuclear weapon. It is also apparent that until the presidential elections the US would not like any distraction and mainly rely on squeezing Iran through economic sanctions and political isolation.

Other major Western powers, including the UK and Germany, are also cautioning Israel against any unilateral action. Germany’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Guido Westerwelle, emphasised during his recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “Germany is opposed to a unilateral Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and that an Israeli military operation at this time could dissolve the international coalition against Iran ...”. There is also internal opposition within Israel for any military strike, so one can already discern a certain backing off.

On the other hand, Iran seems determined to exercise its right under Article Four of the NPT and is going ahead with its civilian nuclear programme. The US, Israel and the West seem convinced that Iran is pursuing a covert nuclear weapons programme under the guise of the civilian umbrella. Furthermore, by denying the IAEA access to certain military facilities, Tehran has created doubts about its intentions.

The key issue is Iran’s build-up of stocks of uranium enriched to 20 per cent. Half has been converted for fuel for reactors but the remaining half keeps on accumulating and is causing concern. This level of enrichment may not be sufficient for making a nuclear weapon but provides it the capability if it chose to do so in the future.

Iran will, of course, use the present stalemate to step up its fissile material production at the underground facility at Fordow and could be tempted to getting too near to developing the bomb. Iran has warned that it would fiercely retaliate by blocking the Straits of Hormuz if its nuclear installations are attacked. The US has taken contingency measures to keep the sea lanes open and brought in its naval fleet in the vicinity of these waters. All three countries are, in fact, engaged in brinkmanship that has the potential of erupting into a serious global crisis with implications for Pakistan.

The current Israeli government is out and out nationalist and sees an atomic armed Iran as a threat to its existence. If Iran becomes a full-fledged nuclear power, Israel’s nuclear monopoly would be lost and its strategic power devalued. Iran will become the torchbearer of the Palestinian cause. Conversely, Iran considers Israel to be its potent enemy, which in collusion with the US wants to undermine the regime. Iran’s orthodox regime is also fiercely nationalistic and unyielding. In essence, it is becoming a test of wills between two fiercely nationalist and conservative regimes.

Pakistan supports Iran’s quest for civil nuclear energy but would like it to comply with its NPT obligations. In case Iran breaks out of the NPT and it leads to a conflict, it will give rise to heightened anti-US sentiment and place Islamabad in a difficult situation. This will also unnerve the Saudis and incentivise the Turks to seriously consider having a nuclear programme of their own. Pakistan will be caught between taking sides with the Arab world and supporting Iran. Pakistan should be prepared to face this contingency.

And for the next US administration, it could well be the most serious foreign policy challenge.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 4^th, 2012.