Our dilemma

Discussion on our current mess has become nauseating. It is difficult to add anything new. Everything that needed to be said has already been said, or so it seems. However, it appears that political analysts have failed to pinpoint our real problem. We may not know how to define it, but the fact is that politically, economically and in terms of social development, we are neither a rock-bottom case, nor a stable, forward-moving country where the majority of our people have basic amenities and enjoy a peaceful, secure life. We are neither here nor there. This is the trap that we have been caught in for the last 30 years, or call it the bind that neither allows us to move forward nor pushes us to the rank of failed states.

If we were a starving country with a food shortage, people would have been discussing a ‘bloody’ revolution. But nobody is dying of hunger in Pakistan. It is true that a high rate of inflation has badly affected fixed income groups and a large number of such people, especially children and women, are malnourished. But that does not create a revolutionary situation. It is another matter altogether that people’s discontent has given rise to ‘revolutionaries’, who deliver high-pitched speeches with empty rhetoric, signifying nothing.

At the political level, we face the same dilemma. We are not living under a stifling dictatorship against which we could launch a movement. Nations of the Arab Spring were unfortunate and lucky at the same time. They were unfortunate because they suffered long spells of dictatorial regimes of various varieties but they were lucky to have a target. They could dream of a better life under democratic governments if they gave sacrifices and struggled hard to overthrow exploitative, repressive regimes. Whether they will succeed in achieving their objective is another matter altogether.

Let us consider our circumstances. We already have an elected government in place. We have an independent judiciary. We have a free press. Even harsh criticism of the government is tolerated. We are much ahead of the Arab Spring countries because we have political parties of all hues and colours and have the government of our choice. But it remains another matter that the government is corrupt to the core and is highly inefficient, almost an epitome of systemic dysfunctionality.

In their frustration and desperation, most urban people want to get rid of the present dispensation, but a movement against the government is neither feasible nor desirable. Another military intervention is also not an option. It brings us back to our basic premise that our real problem is neither lack of democracy nor the current economic crisis. The real problem lies in our incapacity to come out of the trap we have been caught in. Governments come and governments go but our condition remains the same. It is like India’s infamous 3.2 per cent growth rate (which Western economists jokingly called the Hindu growth rate). It shackled India’s progress for almost four decades until Rajiv Gandhi opened up the economy.

We cannot move forward unless we diagnose our disease correctly. Our misfortune is that from the very beginning, Pakistan has been dominated by an oligarchy of vested interests. To ensure their continuous hold on power, they perverted the representative system and in order to hoodwink the people, called it ‘democracy’. Therefore, the argument that the cure of dysfunctional, malfunctioning democracy is to have more democracy may be difficult to apply here. Unless we take corrective measures, the same people are likely to be re-elected and dominate the scene.

For democracy to work successfully, there are certain prerequisites. The first thing is that there should be political parties which are organised on democratic principles. Secondly, there should be strong and effective local governments which cultivate new leadership on a continuous basis. Thirdly, people should participate in the process and make the government accountable. But here in Pakistan, all the powerful people have ganged up and divided the nation into two groups: those who are born rulers and the serfs. Almost all political parties are dynastic in nature and hardly ever hold party elections. There is no difference between one party or the other. Only names are different. Feudal politicians, military, bureaucracy, big business, industrialists, mullahs and media owners support one another in maintaining the status quo.

Previously, the arrangement was informal but now, in the name of  ‘reconciliation’ and ‘consensus’, all mainstream parties have joined coalitions and are enjoying the perks of power. The most worrying thing about this coalition of vested interests is not their loot and plunder or cronyism. It is their ineptitude, mediocrity and poverty of ideas. They neither have any vision nor capacity to find long-term solutions for the problems we face.

In the early days of Pakistan, we could make strides because the calibre of our rulers (politicians, bureaucrats and military men) was high. They were committed, knowledgeable and serious-minded people, who could understand the problems and take decisions accordingly. Things deteriorated as time passed. Unfortunately, no attention was paid to institutional development during the last 40 years. On the contrary, existing institutions were stifled or destroyed, labelling these as colonial relics. The result is that today we have a bunch of nincompoops dominating the scene.

Much has been written about our current economic downturn. But nobody denies the fact that we have all the paraphernalia, wherewithal and potential for fast economic development. And initially, we did show promise. We have had three long spells of high economic growth but because of structural imbalances, they were not sustainable nor were we able to reduce mass poverty. Some people say an economic collapse is imminent. This may not happen because of our strong fundamentals. But what is likely to happen is that we may remain stuck to the vicious cycle of low growth, persistent double-digit inflation and ever-increasing deficits.It is true that the common man, especially the youth of Pakistan, desperately want a change and to break this vicious cycle. But the basic question is whether the current system, which is firmly entrenched, will allow this to happen.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 1^st, 2012.