Dodgy numbers: Under pressure, govt releases debatable poverty figures

Statistics reveal a decline to 12.4% amid sluggish growth and double-digit inflation.

ISLAMABAD:

Under mounting pressure from the donors’ community, the government finally succumbed and decided to release poverty data after holding it for months due to fears of a backlash as the statistics show a decline in poverty despite economic slowdown and constant double-digit inflation.

The decision to this effect was conveyed in a meeting of ‘Technical Group on Poverty Assessment’. The meeting was headed by the Planning Commission (PC) Deputy Chairman Dr Nadeemul Haque and was convened to bring an end to controversy, surrounding around actual numbers of people living below the poverty line.

“I have directed the secretary of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to release the poverty-related data,” said Haque while talking to The Express Tribune.

A committee, constituted by the PC, has computed that 12.4% of the population level lives below the poverty line. According to the method used, if a person is able to consume 2,350 calories per day – which cost Rs1,745 per month – then the individual is assumed to be living above the poverty line.

The poverty was estimated on the basis of the Household Integrated Economic Survey 2010-11. The government has been withholding the poverty figure as it would hardly find any ground to justify the 4.8% reduction in poverty within two years despite sluggish economic growth and double-digit inflation.

The official findings show that both the poverty and inequality declined from 2008 to 2011 – a rare combination which was not achieved even during Musharraf’s regime, when poverty had witnessed a massive reduction by 10%, falling from 34% in 2000-01 to 23.9% in 2004-05 but inequality widened.

The PC-constituted committee also recommended studying the methodology as the committee head was surprised to see declining trends in both the poverty and inequality indices. The independent experts suggested to the government to change the consumption-based poverty calculation methodology; terming it flawed.

The PC has been opposing the proposal to calculate poverty and release the data while arguing that the poverty-debate was donors’ pushed agenda that has lost its relevance. It also omitted the poverty chapter from Economic Survey of Pakistan released annually. However, the PC was forced to do the job by the same donors’ community, according to an official who attended the meeting.

The official added that the country is required to show a number at international forums to seek soft loans and grants for poverty reduction efforts. However, it will be interesting to see the reaction of the lenders as the 12.4% figure shows that the country has achieved the desired level of poverty reduction, though no one in the government is ready to own the figure.

The Millennium Development Goal number one requires reduction in by poverty level by half in 25 years of implementation, which is 1990 to 2015. In 1990, the estimated poverty level in Pakistan was 26.1% and the target for 2015 was 13%. However, the government has already surpassed the target, without sustainable economic growth.

The participants of the meeting criticised the commission for politicising the poverty figures. In 2008, the commission advised the government not to release 2007-08 poverty figures, according to a participant of the meeting. In 2008, the poverty level was 17.2%.

The experts also suggested the release of the poverty figure along with the do-files so the researches could themselves workout the poverty figures, as many doubt the authenticity of the figure released by the government. They also advised the authorities to randomly check the questionnaire and the data entered in the system to find out any anomaly. Lastly, the experts advised the PC to hire a foreign expert to resolve the issue once for all.

The experts cautioned the government that anything short of this will further widen the trust deficit.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 6^th, 2012.