A trending feature in The Guardian on August 26 carried the headline: “Food shortages could force world into vegetarianism, warn scientists”. The dire fate awaits the developed nations 40 years from now, according to the feature, but what seems to have got them really worried is the notion that “Food shortages in 2008 led to civil unrest in 28 countries”. It was not really the urge for democracy so much as rising food prices that drove the peoples in Tunisia and Egypt and 25 other countries to protests and rioting. Poor people spend the bulk of their income on food. They came out into the streets because they couldn’t feed themselves and their children.
But figure this out. The worst ongoing drought in the US in 50 years will mean that there will be little for the cattle to graze before they are sent to the feedlots to be fattened on corn. However, corn is needed elsewhere in the US and Europe. Wheat and corn — food for you and me — are now required in significant proportions to make biofuels. Even so, Europe is set to double its biofuel production in the next 10 years.
For us in South Asia, poverty is simply a life-or-death question. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan says poverty may have played a significant role in the 2,400 suicides reported in the country in 2010. In India, there is no need to guess: the official numbers are staggering. Every year, about 1.3 million children under the age of five die because of poor nutrition. In the years of India’s economic reforms since 1990, a quarter of a million farmers have killed themselves by consuming pesticide because of farm debts and poor yields.
But we have our own little puzzle. In the years 2002-03, India sold about 20 million tonnes of food grains to Europe to fatten their cows, selling it at Rs5.45 a kilogramme, while offering the same at Rs6.40 to its own underfed population, says journalist P Sainath, a specialist on poverty. The ‘sacred’ cows of Europe are “subsidised by some of the hungriest humans on the planet”, he wrote in The Hindu. In Deepa Bhatia’s 2009 documentary film about farmers’ suicides, Nero’s Guests, Sainath recounts a conversation between a young reporter and a farmer in the state of Maharashtra. The reporter asks: “Mr Zhavandia, what is the dream of the Indian farmer?” The farmer replies: “The dream of the Indian farmer is to be born a European cow.” Democracy is a farther ideal.
In fact, the tendency to be triumphalist about India’s democracy can be puzzling to many. In the ardent defence of the electoral system, we seem to ignore the evidence that suggests that ordinary people care less about the grand notions of freedom and suffrage than food and water. In the only instance that basic rights were denied to Indians, during the years of the emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi (1975-77), the response of the population has been blithely summarised as nearly a genetically-embedded love of democracy.
But that was hardly the case. In 1969, when Indira Gandhi broke away from the Congress old guard and won the elections in 1971, she was addressing a basic need of the population with her slogan ‘Garibi Hatao’ (get rid of poverty). The years between 1971 and 1974 saw severe drought, food shortages, rising global oil prices and the costly war with Pakistan. The civil society movement of Jayaprakash Narayan and the huge public response to it prompted her to impose the national internal emergency.
It is true that Indira Gandhi’s Congress was defeated in the 1977 general elections after the emergency years. But her party had been abandoned — temporarily, as it turned out — only by the largely populated states of the Hindi belt. The four south Indian states, which had been spared the excesses of the emergency, demolition of Muslim-populated slums and forcible sterilisation, had voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Congress, giving less than half a dozen seats between them to the opposition. The middle class praised the emergency regime for discipline, productivity and communal harmony.
The conditions of the early 1970s are here again. Food prices are rising. The G-20 countries are thinking of an emergency international meeting to address the problem of possible food shortages this year. In India, activists are protesting against a proposed national food security bill that has some provisions to reduce coverage and eligibility to subsidised food that could hurt the poor. India produces surplus food grain. We export some of it at discounted prices. The public distribution system often lets it rot in storage. Many of our people are hungry. They are very angry, too.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 31st, 2012.
COMMENTS (10)
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In Pakistan it used to be opposed, pay less to your farmers at the time of reaping and buy grain at triple price from outside. Middle man became rich at the expense of farming community. That is what Mr John is saying increase people's buying power.
@Amir Nasiruddin Sayani: when will you be in hunger? people now theses days dont trust democracy n the only reason is the malpractices of this government !
Pakistan does not need democracy it needs a visionary dictator like Ataturk.The average Pakistani is too emotional and cannot think with his head. In a democracy Pakistanis will either elect corrupt politicians who will promise them paradise on earth or Islamic radicals who want to create a Taliban state.
@John B: I agree with you that the hot climate and storage is the big problem. The critters eat more grains than many humans can afford. There must be efforts to improve storage with sealed, inert, sterile environment for long-term crisis. In the US there are huge reserves of strategic petroleum to meet emergency. The world needs to pay attention to food storage. It is a shame that more corn is used for fuel for rich people's gas guzzlers at the cost of poor people who cannot find cheap grains. I agree with the author that the hungry people do not need democracy or human rights they need food first. I remember the uprising in China by the elite English speaking students and rich people. When the farmers and mine workers were let out the freedom movement disappeared. This also explains why the election results in rural heartland of Pakistan are different from the urban elites. In fact the same thing happens even in the US. The East Coast, West Coast and upper Midwest is relatively well off and votes Democratic while the mid and south is poor and vote Republican. Regards, Mirza
Amir, try living a life of hunger and then tell what you need
@BlackJack: We need to support our fellow Indians untill such time they can take care of themselves, only method involved in doing so are not sustainable
I need democracy. i still remember statement by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto: "We Will Eat Grass But Make Atomic Bomb".
I will be hunger but i need democracy.
Democracy is an overvalued and underutilized ideal for the masses; the poorer the country, the more this is likely to be true - a country needs to have a large educated middle class before it starts enjoying the fruits of democracy. What we do get in Indian democracy is the power to eject the ruling party within the space of five years and replace it with another that looks just like it, at least for the poorest sections of society. Of course, given our internal contradictions and diversity, we would not survive long without our lumbering democracy with all its defects, so praise the Lord. However, I would be interested in understanding what your suggestions are to address the concerns that you have listed; clearly we do not have a food shortage - all we have is an archaic system that allows disproportionate value extraction by middle men as well as extremely low productivity (partially due to extremely small land holdings of individual farmers) - are you suggesting that the govt dole out free grain? Do you honestly think that such a system will not be misused by the very vested interests whom you and Sainath accuse. And if not, what do you do with the excess grain - leave it to rot or feed the cows? The fact is that no nation can indefinitely support 60% of its population working for a sector that contributes less than 15% to GDP (and growing at 2-3% p.a implying negative real growth rates) - the math just doesn't work out.
The problem with tropical and sub tropical countries are proper storage and distribution of produce due to non conducive natural ambient temperature for storage. Efficiency in these sectors will reduce the waste and this is one of the issues currently addressed around the world. I remember reading in NY times how tons of grain was spoiled in India due to poor storage.
As the author states and it is supported by data, India produces surplus food today compared to what it was in 1960s. However, the problem all over the world is affordability and various factors come into play. The questions one should ask in macroeconomic policy change are "do people have enough" and "means to buy them"?
The issue focused here is "on the means" and not on food shortage. Means depends on other economic factors. In a rapidly growing economy inflationary food price as opposed to "price hike due to shortage" should be distinguished. In India, the problem is not food shortage but inflationary pressure.
Subsidizing food, by restricting export of surplus is not a good idea as it will only reduce the production output eventually. The land lord farmer is not interested in sowing in the next season if the produce is likely to bring less profit.
Rather the focus should be on increasing the means ie income, of those at the bottom with eye on inflation so that the poor can have balanced food for sustenance.
Remember, cheap food also means increased waste at the consumer end. A study conducted in US describes food that are available cheaply (plenty) often end up in house hold garbage, which I see every day in my house.