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That China and India will exercise greater political and economic influences on the countries that lie on their peripheries can no longer be disputed. In that respect, most of east Asia and most of south Asia are well within the spheres of influence of Beijing and New Delhi, respectively. But there is one problem with this evolving structure. Washington, at this point, is not inclined to surrender this space entirely to Beijing. The Chinese on their part are not inclined to seek a monopoly for themselves. Over time, both sides will learn to accommodate each others’ interests. But it is in the two other parts of Asia where there was no dominant political presence to keep order — the word ‘order’ being used in a broad rather than a narrow sense — that political jockeying for appropriate positioning is underway. The old ‘great game’ is once again being played. As was the case in the one enacted more than a century ago, the game could have an uncertain end. However, the large Asian countries could save that situation from developing by acting on their own, rather than following the strategic interests of outside powers.
In the resource-rich central Asia, there are strong interests of three large powers — the United States, China and Russia. Each would like to dominate this geographic space and at least be in a position to retain influence in it over the making of public policy. In the Middle East, as a result of the Arab Spring, the old grand bargain has broken down. That bargain involved the understanding that the region’s autocrats will be left in place if they did not disturb the flow of oil to the West, kept the vital sea lanes open to international shipping and did not threaten the security of the state of Israel. As the results of the recent elections in Egypt demonstrate, the new political order that is emerging will have a very different set of objectives. Nationalism, tinged in some instances by lslamism, will be the driving force in many Middle Eastern states. For many, Turkey will be the model most likely to be followed. Similarly, the Asian countries could do a great deal themselves to create an economic order that serves their purpose. This is where Pakistan enters the picture.
Given its geographic position, it is through Pakistan that a number of links to bring Asia together could run. For the moment, the economic integration of Asia is coming in bits and pieces. There are a number of trading arrangements in place involving several different groups of countries. There was ASEAN for the east Asian countries but it has thrown out tentacles to bring other countries into its orbit. There are now several ‘Asean plus’ configurations in place. There was the SAFTA for south Asia that has only now begun to show some life after the decision by Islamabad and New Delhi to concentrate on economic and trade issues rather than keep their focus on hard to resolve problems. There is the Shanghai forum in which China is attempting to tie the countries of central Asia to itself in some kind of a trading and security arrangement. And then there are numerous bilateral arrangements between different countries. Examples of these are: China-Pakistan, India-Sri Lanka, Pakistan-Sri-Lanka, India-Bangladesh and so forth. All this sounds perplexing but it is the right way to proceed. It may not be a good idea to over-design a regional arrangement as the Europeans did decades ago. They — and the world — are now paying a price for quickly pushing ahead with that model of regional arrangement. For Asia, a multi-step approach aimed at regional connectivity would be a much better proposition. The right approach for bringing about greater economic cooperation among the larger countries of Asia is to focus on connecting them by investing in physical infrastructure. This should be done in several steps that will be identified in the article next week.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 30th, 2012.
COMMENTS (35)
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Pakistan can attract billions in investment at the drop of a hat. All it has to do is the following: make a 180 degree policy change regarding the jihadi "assets", announce to the world that it is throwing open trade between India and Afghanistan, invite global tenders for constructing and maintaining road and railroad links between at least 3 points between India and Afghanistan, guarantee these investments by taking a no-war (includes proxy war) pledge for the next 20 years. If Pakistan can do this, I don't think it will ever have to ask US or anyone for that matter for a few billion dollars.
Afghanistan was chosen as a strategic pivot by the americans after long study beginning 70s and they took their time and planned the operations with the beginning of saur revolution. The americans have yet to succeed with their strategy in Afghanistan, can they eliminate all opposition by use of force or other means is yet to be seen. In Pakistan we first have to reverse both the present psyche and mindset to achieve this position presented by Mr Burki.
@wonderer: I thought you knew him that is why you were defending his writings. Mr. Burki has a masters in Physics from a prestigious British university (courtesy: civil service officers foreign training program). It was later on that someone discovered the developmental economics potential in him and he was sent to Harvard. Again nothing personal against Mr. Burki but I have problem with his framework or metaphor. We never use the fulcrum in political science, also the fulcrum can balance or imbalance the power structure. Unfortunately this does not happen in international politics. Yes! Pakistan is at the crossroad of major regional powers and armies have marched through this corridor. That is what scares me and asks me to come out of delusion.
@G. Din: I wish I had one percent such paranoid religious powered insane delusions. Dr.Burki is highly respected but I must say he has gone over board. He has no clue to what extent religIon has destroyed the fabric of pakistani mindset. It has become exporter of terrorists and has no future. Which country is doing fulltime business with Pakistan? Not even China. Yet religious arrogance and destroying neighbours peace through religious means is the what Pakistan has achieved. Instead of A fulcrum for ASIA, it has become a religious nuisance for the WORLD!!!!. There is nothing wrong in trying to win a gold medal in running contest for that you need to learn to walk first!!! Using religion to divide and destroy worlds peace has not made Pakistanis think and use mind for building a progressive society!!! The hordes of Zia-era educated islamists are seen right on this forum everyday...need we need any evidence why terrorists love Pakistan?
Mr. Bukri: Let us consider how important Fossil Fuels will be in next 30-40 years. Most studies indicate they will run out within this century, so quite a few nations of the world are stepping up alternative energy research. Due to scarce availability, the cost of oil will increase beyond a point where alternative energy will be more attractive. ieee has already predicted that Solar PV prices will become competetive enough to be alternative to Diesel powered plants by 2020, even if it doesn't surely it will become competetive by 2030 atleast?
So, in such an environment, basing a country's strategy on its 'strategic location' isn't too wise. It is better to rely on the enterprise and energy of ones nation, then to be rent seeking for the real-estate owned.
@Max:
Very illuminating reply indeed! But why side-step the connection between Mr. Burki and "the Physics"? I think you mistook Mr. Burki for Prof. Pervez Amirali Hoodbhoy. No?
@Dr Meekal Ahmed: "Development programs." I was pointing to Mr. Burki's article on women education.
@wonderer: Madam/Sir, I am sorry if my comments caused any distress to you or Mr. Burki. At the personal level, I have lot of respect for Mr. Burki but when I see article after article which is based on illogical arguments, that just throws me out. I actually defended him when a Karachi based economist wrote a vicious article about him. But Mr. Burki just keeps on going on the same path and without any hesitation. What should I make of ex-finance minister and VP of the World Bank who does not understand the term "extractive powers of the state," or argues that women education in Pakistan has increased because one private educational institution was heavily funded by the World Bank. By the way I know much more about Mr. Burki beside him being VP of the World Bank. Some people are just lucky to win a lottery. It also depends where one was born. There is Sahibzada Yakoob Library at National Defense College, Pakistan. Does that mean he was a great military intellectual, strategist or a military leader? The fact is that he was not educated beyond "O" Level and as a strategist, he should be thankful that a populist leader came in power after the fall of East Pakistan and took him under his arms and pampered him as the greatest diplomat as if diplomacy is an art of polo-playing Taulaqdars of Oudh and joining civil service through the backdoor is the God Gifted right of cricket-playing boys of Burkis of Jalandhar. I should not complain as this is a norm and not an aberration in Sar-Zamin-e-Pakistan. Again! my apology if my comments hurt you or Mr. Burki. But I am not going to apologize for my critique, so chew the bullet.
please read 'prosperity' not 'property' in my previous comment
@Max:
"uplifts"?
@kaalchakra: " Essentially, you Indians want to receive Iranian oil for free, just as you were unwilling to give Muslims their rights. " Receive Iranian oil for free? You mean the same way Saudis subsidized their oil to you to the point of being free? Just remember: Indians practice ghairat (self-respect) while you only talk about it and which you lost a long time ago. We are no free-loaders nor double-dippers! Since we are unwilling to give our Muslims their rights, may be you would helpfully invite them and shower them the same kind of rights you gave your compatriots in East Pakistan who are still rotting in refugee camps there!
Is Pakistan the fulcrum of Asia? I don't know about that but I know the author is going overboard when stating the importance of his country. Also I know if the Pakistanis take steps like shuting down their jihadi factories, filter the venom from their text books, send their army to the barracks, encourage the small& medium scale industries etc., they can regain the respect of the civilized world and bring property to the masses.
@Truth Bites: "If it wasnt so important, why would you guys even follow Pakistani papers?"
Pakistan has continued to attack India through state and non-state actors - hence it is relevant to India's security to follow what goes on in Pakistan. This however does not mean that Pakistan is the fulcrum of Asia - the author's hypothesis
"Pakistan is here to stay, against the odds. This very fact making people to go mad and obvious from comments here."
The comments on this thread are directly related to the author's hypothesis and not driven by any frustration at Pakistan's continued existence. What does cause resentment across the border is your policy of exporting terror to our country and being disingenuous about it - but neither this column nor associated comments relate to that issue.
While universe doesnt revolve around Pakistan. Pakistan is here to stay, against the odds. This very fact making people to go mad and obvious from comments here. If it wasnt so important, why would you guys even follow Pakistani papers?
Its combination of bad luck, its bad leadership, cold war and international intervention that today Pakistan is such condition. Having said that, completely agree with Dr Burki local alliances should be sought with regional player and work towards free trade agreements.
@Max:
You do not seem to have read the following printed under the writer's picture:
"The writer is a former vice-president of the World Bank and a former caretaker finance minister of Pakistan"
Would you like to modify your comment?
even accessing the central asian resources India at present the third largest economy in the world. This happens because of our consumption power and our population previously liability and an asset now.
If pakistan thinks that being a land route to central asia makes it important, it must see the importance of Egypt( suez canal) and Panana( panama canal). They certainly are not the fulcrums of the world. Delusions are the worst enemy of a nation. Turkey has no interest in being Asian. It wants and will be a European country. THe Mid east want the US to protect them, whether they are close to Asia or not.
G. Din
What a pathetic post. The Great Quaid himself had clearly envisioned the role Pakistan would play. And playing the role of world's fulcrum does not come cheap. Essentially, you Indians want to receive Iranian oil for free, just as you were unwilling to give Muslims their rights. The problem lies with your mentality, not with Pakistan, my friend. Change it, before it is too late.
Pakistan: Asia's Fulcrum
I don't know. Does 'fulcrum' mean the same as 'DEADWEIGHT'?
Pakistan: Asia’s fulcrum
I do not know, unless 'fulcrum' means the same as 'DEADWEIGHT'.
@Ken Bryant: " Pakistan has lived too long under such delusions." Every Pakistani is brainwashed right from his/her childhood that Pakistan is the center of the Universe, that all latitudes and longitudes run through it. So, any person going anywhere cannot help but pass through Pakistan. Imagine how rich Pakistan would be if it charged a toll for every person in the world! But, unfortunately, every person in the world is loathe to even skirt Pakistan by a mile because no one is sure that once entered he/she would ever leave it alive.
What a coincidence that your country turns out to be the fulcrum! And that you yourself turn out to be the fulcrum of your country! Pakistan has lived too long under such delusions.
The very fact that Pakistan controls the land between Asia and the resource rich Central Asia and Middle East could end up as a curse.
That Pakistan, as it stands now, can dictate effectively, the terms and conditions of transport and trade through its territory has been proven beyond doubt,recently (NATO supply shutdown).
Economic powers could very well decide that it would be much easier to sign economic treaties and transport agreements with provinces that have spun off of Pakistan. Troubles in Balochistan might be the early signs of such thinking.
Thank you for a very well written and well thought of article. I await the next week's article to read more. Thank you from a Chinese friend.
Mr. Burki, With all due respect, it would be wise for you to return to your subject of specialization---the Physics. Looks like that politics, economy, social arrangements and uplifts, geography, strategic perspectives, and alliance formation fall too heavy on you. Regrettably social sciences are not everyone's right hand. These require extensive logical constructs, and ability to analyze the plausible theories. Their epistemology is more complicated than someone's imagination.
An informative article
Mr. Burki has done well to identify an area that will make Pakistan extremely important to each nations' economy in the region, foster collaboration, at the same time increasing other nations' dependencies on Pakistan. This is a win-win situation for Pakistan. I eagerly wait for the next installment of author's article in which he will outline the steps required to be taken by Pakistan. That is the most important part. I think Pakistan at the minimum has to a)Announce a policy of not tolerating extremists of any kind because historically bad elements (of which there are many) have this bad habit of doing something negative or the other to gain attention; international people will be afraid of their investments as long as these people roam free; most of these pipelines, train routes, trading markets will like in current 'dangerous' zones b) Announce a new trade policy document identifying towns that will serve as whole sale trading points, announce pipeline routes touching all important points and towns that will cross its paths, new facilities that it proposes to construct/build to facilitate trade, etc. Such announcements will make other nations look at Pakistan with interest and see it in positive light. They will want to invest in Pakistan to facilitate all this on the promise it holds forth.
Pakistan does not need army, it needs a extensive body of smart economists and foreign trade specialists.