Winds of change
Good for the PPP so far in that it has succeeded in getting Abdul Qadir Gilani elected. Its leaders may rejoice in the victory but not the poll results in total. First of all, it was an unexpectedly neck-and-neck fight and not really a walkover as the PPP leaders had thought. Mr Shaukat Hayat Bosan, an independent candidate, lost by a margin of only 4,096 votes.
The confidence of the PPP rested on some hard facts. Mr Yousaf Raza Gilani, father of Abdul Qadir, had achieved a great deal of development in this constituency. He also used his position as prime minister to benefit caste, biradari leaders and local landlords from his constituency by providing jobs and using his influence in their favour if and when they needed him. This is one of the tested mechanisms of retaining support within the constituency that the political families call their own.
There is also a perception that some of the PPP propagandists have attempted to popularise; the Seraiki region is solidly with the PPP. The result of NA-151 doesn’t conform to this view. Rather, it may result in sleepless nights for PPP leaders when they prepare to go the next general elections later this year or early next year. Let us see why that may be the case.
In the February 2008 elections, Yousaf Raza Gilani got 77,664 votes against his closest rival, Sikindar Hayat Bosan, who came second with 45,765 votes. The margin of victory for Gilani was very convincing. This time around, it has shrunk to roughly only about 4,000 votes. Shaukat Hayat Bosan, brother of Sikindar has polled about 33 per cent more votes than his brother. There is more to this contest than the traditional rivalry between the political families of the feudal Seraiki region.
The first is the PTI factor, which by all indications is a rising political power. Make no mistakes. The reason Sikindar Bosan didn’t contest is that he has joined the PTI and as per policy of the party he couldn’t be a candidate for the by-election. However, the family couldn’t leave the field open to Gilani. Shaukat Bosan, along with his traditional network of local support, had the new power of the PTI on his side. The difference in the increase for Bosan may also be due to a rage factor against the PPP, for poor governance of which Mr Gilani would be the prime culprit.
The other worrisome situation for the party will be — if formally or informally — like in this by-election, the anti-PPP parties in Punjab and in other provinces support a single candidate. It is true that the PPP has preserved its constituency through all it troubles and travails but voters cannot be expected to go by emotions and feelings of old loyalty alone. They want something on the table, a decent living, security and hope for a better future.
At the moment, I am not sure if two electoral alliances will emerge for the next national elections. One can be certain about the PPP and its allies but not so sure about the PTI and the PML-N. In the three-way contests, the prospects for the PPP may not be that gloomy.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 23rd, 2012.
COMMENTS (24)
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With nonsensical arguments, the writer tries to fool the readers with different illogical reasoning to prove that PPP candidate victory is of no importance. But why all the right-wing annalist become nervous with PPP victory in Multan. One thing is very very clear that PPP is most popular party in Punjab also. Live with love-Let democracy work
Is it a coincidence that strongholds of PPP are the most socioeconomically deprived areas of Pakistan.(southern punjab,rural sindh and balochistan). PPP wants to keep them illiterate ,superstitious(believing in makhdooms and gillans etc) and socioeconomically back ward for as long as they can, to keep the path open to the corridors of power.BISP is Rs 70 billion/yr programme which is nothing more than a vote buying exercise at the expense of Tax payer's money. Democracy can not flourish if majority of voters are illiterate ,and I suspect illiteracy rate in PPP votebank will range between 75-90% and people living below the poverty line about the same range.
You forgot the Supreme Court factor Mr Rais which actively indulged in direct and indirect poll rigging by lack of transportation for far flung rural constituencies, mysterious absence of names from voter list and Chief Justice's insistence on not administering oath to the new CEC which by the way took only half an hour.
I would like to share this in the context of by-election of NA-151 seat and subsequent reflections of Rasul Bukhs Rais in your newspaper. Although winds of change is seems to be felt from the neck-and-neck fight between Abdul Qadir Gilani (PPP candidate) and independent candidate Soukat Hayat Bosan, at the same time we need to dissect whether the change may be of cosmetic nature or of real nature. If the expected change is of cosmetic nature than it is useless to confuse the nation, who is already very much confused for not have any visionary leadership who could give them hope to have a better living, security and better future, at least for their new generation. On the contrary if we are expecting some real change than the analysts and visionaries should reflect on expect future of the nation which would give some sense direction to the opinion makers in particular and to the whole nation in general. Looking at nearest point could badly misguidance and misleading. I (through this piece of writing) would request to our thinkers and knowledgeable people that is the most appropriate time to come ahead and pen down some fare sighted pictures of present situation which would be a good source of guidance for our politicians, opinion makers and for the nation as a whole.
If the voters had any level of common sense let alone education, they would never vote for the PPP, PML-N, ANP or MQM at least for another 40 years until they are completely purged of their crook thugs and feudal landlord mafia. Unfortunately, the common Pakistani lacks even this level of common sense and will vote in these people again, then go burning tyres when again there is no power, employment but high inflation and our increased dependence on aid. We deserve this because we are responsible for making it happen everytime - not Mossad or CIA or RAW!
For all PPP Haters--> Win is a Win- You couldn’t defeat Gilani with all the support from PMLN, PTI, JI, Judiciary and many other behind the curtains- I advise you all to have mental floss now! Jiye Bhutto; Pakistan Khappay!
And for the article: I expect MUCH better from the author!
@Muhammad: I agree 100% with your prediction. Many people deep down realize this and that is why they are once again using Generals and or SC judges to deprive the elected govt of completing its term in office. The reason PPP so easily agreed to appoint a neutral CEC is they do want a free and fair elections and do not want to give the opposition an excuse to run away or boycott the elections. The coalition govt would increase its majority in the next assemblies. Thanks and regards, Mirza
And the people of Pakistan deserve what they are getting if the vote and support blindly...
This analysis is a pipe dream at best. Rasool Buksh Rais has never said anything based on ground realities which are that PML-N is going to reduce its seats in next election, PTI will win about 10-15 seats maximum. PPP will win in South Punjab and form govt with PML-Q in province. PPP is going to win in Sindh, and Baluchistan whereas in KPK they will form coalition govt with ANP. MQM willl take its urban seats as before and will have its share in the coalition. In a nut shell PPP will form the next govt. again with an increased majority, PML-N will lose its punjab govt to PPP- PML-Q alliance. Zardari will be elected for another term as PPP has outright majority in senate anyway. Take that!
Many flaws in this analysis. First one is that Bosan family is one of the strongest families beside Gillanis and Qureshis. Elder Bosan had defeated YR Gillani before,therefore it was never easy for Gillanis. Secondly, after four and half years in government, it has never been easy for ruling party candidates. Most of them never return to their previous constituencies. Thirdy, in any by-election, the voter turn out is always low, therefore comparison should not be made with general election. Last but not least, the most important lesson learnt is that election alliances won't work., therefore this defeat will create more division in PPP opponents and division of right wing votes always bring PPP into power.
@Bilal Murtaza: Well said, but sane human beings are hard to find these days
No one will remember this by-election in 8 months time, I can assure you,
The PPP is the only party worth supporting in Pakistan. It is moderate, peaceful, sensible, and eager to talk to the rest of the world. I'm sorry PTI/PML-N supporters, but I cannot let Pakistan become a Taliban state cut-off from the rest of the world by voting for your fake 'Tsunami' parties. And, by all expert accounts, PPP has the most support for the 2013 elections. So, I guess I'm not alone. Regards, Rehan
@Qaisrani: Not every one is having PPP phobia. Just those who think that the people of Pakistan are dumb and do not know what is good for them. They do not trust the people to vote correctly. These elites are usually in the cities and mostly in Panjab.
Good analysis: Dont worry, the jiyalas are already having sleepless nights that even with the state machinery on their side, they could not register a convincing win....PTI is a rising power and they will soon be reminded of its influence---
@Ejaaz: Balochistan will be swept by PTI dear--dont you worry The Pakhtuns are all behind Khan Baadshah---reminder: the Quetta jalsa! We never contested this election and still, the look on the Gianis in the presser with the media said it all
With the PPP having destroyed Pakistan in last 4 years with: - Heighest Loadshedding in Pakistan history. Corruption in Rental power plants. Adding a TOTAL of ZERO megawatts to pakistan power supply. - Taking heighest debts in Pakistan's 60 year history. - Ridiculing the judiacry, support NRO at the last minute until public came on streets of pakistan - PPP failing to find Benazir kills in ITS OWN 4 years of governance - PPP responsible for worst law and order situation in karachi (when PPP/MQM actually own karachi and rule there from 4 years) - Worst Gas loadshedding and mehengaayi. - Passing a law that makes the rules special and immune to any court and justice. this law contradicts the basic human rights and pakistani constiution article 4 (that all pakistanis are equal). what a joke
I can't imagine any sane human being will ever vote for these corrupt crooks and their corrupt allies ANP/mqm in next 50 years
This is the reason of backwardness in Southern Punjab. Keep voting Makhdooms and the conditions will remain like this.
Why every one is having PPP phobia???Have they come from Mars??They have every right to govern if they are chosen by the people.
Very superficial And misleading analysis. You should have counted votes of PML n in 2008 also. This time it was IJI plus judiciary and corruption mantra by media against PPP in general and YRG and family in particular because he refused to be leghari There is always an anti incumbent factor if elections are held regularly. Churchill lost election after winning war. Indira Gandhi won election against Fernandez by margin of 75 k , then lost to Same person with same number. Come again she won with same margin. Arm chair analyst always talk about performance . What a performance one can give if you spend 50 billion in one district. This is stellar job and better than what MQM did in Karach with Mushraf money grant. This means that there are more factors other than real issues to win elections including visceral hatred for opponent and poisonous propaganda devoid of facts.
I hope PTI and PML (N) sit and coolly review the result in this bye elections. This is what going to be the result in the next general election. Sorry to my Tsunami friends.This what going to be the scenario in most of the Punjab and lower KP if PTI and PMLN go seperatly. Here I give credit to Zardari. The man is a political genius. He has put his ego on the side and done business with MQM and PMLQ. Although he may not like them.On the contrary Tsunami Khan and the Tiger Sharif are still riding on their ego's. They better wake up early from their slumber before it is too late and work a electoral alliance before PPP Coalition returns to power again for the next 5 years.
Mr rasul baksh rais, biased as always, there was a third candidate from pmln in 2008 who poled 15000 votes. This time it was PPP v all , even then PPP won
Finally people are opening their eyes to the facts on the ground. Here are some more facts: PPP has never banked upon other parties and single handedly won most elections nationally. Each time there has been a rightwing alliance to face PPP for any success. PPP has always won seats in all provinces and is the only national party. PPP has majority in senate and in most provincial assemblies. That means Zardari is going to be elected even if PPP loses many seats in the next elections. No party other than PPP has much presence in the senate and the future results do not look promising either. If PPP contests elections in alliance with his coalition partners they would gain a bigger majority than the current assemblies. PML-N would be the biggest loser. There would be a race between PML-N and PTI to coax JI for their survival.