Is a ‘revolution’ brewing in Punjab?

Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has decided to join the people of his province to protest against power outages by the PPP-led government at the centre. All over the province, more and more cities are subject to protest demonstrations by citizens tormented by an average of 12-hour power outage daily. In Lahore, he wanted to give a fillip to the growing unrest by shifting his office to the grounds of Minar-e-Pakistan on June 1. His intent could be to intensify the unrest into some kind of uprising. Since he has been talking about “revolution”, it is possible that he wants to start a movement in the country’s largest province — population-wise — to bring down the federal government. His remedy for ending the energy crisis is quite straightforward: “The money swindled in the National Reconciliation Ordinance case, the National Insurance Company Limited land scam, the rental power case, the Hajj scam and the extravagant spending of the government could be used to curb the growing power crisis”. If the government takes these measures, it would have to pack up and go home after which there will be no guarantee that it would escape the hunting down of its leaders, as per the past practice of ‘accountability’. One may ask: why should the PPP government leave office and open itself to revenge at the hands of all sorts of elements that want President Zardari and his close affiliates — “Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves” — back in prison?

The Punjab chief minister is not too much out of sync with his elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, who has pledged a Long March against the federal government. The chief minister’s friend Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has been firing his volleys in the National Assembly for some time, in a way, acting as the frontline bellwether of the PML-N as well as giving an aggressive direction to the party. There was a time when one could say that Nawaz Sharif was not too inclined to unleash protest and violence as political strategy. If there was a polarity between the two brothers about strategy, it is now virtually over with the party hawks gaining the upper hand under the aggressive tutelage of Shahbaz Sharif.

Two developments must be noted in the move of the PML-N: a gradual reconciliation with the army, a steady support to the ‘independent’ judiciary and a convergence with the non-state actors of Punjab. Add to this, the ingredient of ‘revolution’ and you have the contours of how the PML-N wants to shorten the days of the PPP in power. Shahbaz Sharif has been known to meet the army chief to feel the pulse of any toppling plans in tandem with ‘selfless’ devotion to the Supreme Court subjecting the federal government to legal scrutiny. The other strand in the strategy comprises change of policy on non-state actors and banned jihadi organisations and pitting them against the PPP in South Punjab.

In February 2010, local newspaper Daily Islam reported that Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah visited Jhang and paid his respects at the grave of the founder of the Sipah-e-Sahaba, Maulana Haq Nawaz Jhangvi. He led a delegation of the PML-N which also included parliamentary secretary Iftikhar Baloch and an MPA from Jhang, Sheikh Yaqub. He visited the grave of other Sipah-e-Sahaba leaders such as Maulana Isarul Qasmi and Azam Tariq. The same month, a national newspaper reported that the party saw no harm in seeking the banned outfit’s blessing for votes in the PP-82 constituency.

But the “revolution” may not be to the advantage of the PML-N. In 1999, Nawaz Sharif was nearly killed as a result of an explosive device placed by the Sipah-e-Sahaba on the road to his residence in Raiwind. Also the infamous Riaz Basra got himself photographed standing next to Mr Sharif without the latter knowing it. In 2002, he was buried wrapped in a Sipah-e-Sahaba flag. Today, a Sipah franchise Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is a wing of al Qaeda and actively involved in killing Shias in the country. Therefore, the “revolution” may not punish the PPP and bring the PML-N to power. It may bring al Qaeda closer to ruling Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 4^th, 2012.