But several questions come to mind as Nato and US forces withdraw. What is the likely scenario that will emerge once Nato and the US withdraw? Can the Afghan forces hold up to the Taliban onslaught and are there any chances of a negotiated settlement? What role, if any, should Pakistan play to facilitate an orderly withdrawal?
The prognosis is that once the US forces leave, Afghanistan could lapse into civil strife because though the Afghan National Army has come a long way, it has yet to gel into an effective national force to counter the Taliban and warlords opposed to the government. Moreover, President Hamid Karzai’s government has not been able to win the confidence of the people due to pervasive corruption, poor governance and failing security. Capitalising on these weaknesses, Afghan Taliban enjoy local support, at least, in the eastern and southern parts of the country.
Pakistan faces a huge dilemma. Immediately after 9/11, president George W Bush addressed Pakistan in his famous remarks “either you are with us or against us”. General Pervez Musharraf took no time to be on the side of the US and to become a frontline state. For if we had not allied ourselves with the US and Nato, India would have played the key role in Afghanistan and extended maximum facilities for transit and enhanced its regional influence. Paradoxically, since then, Pakistan has been an ally of the US but also sided with forces against the US.
On the one hand, it supports the US in its policies in Afghanistan, but it can also not ignore the Taliban with whom it has maintained functional, if not friendly, relations. Further, Washington itself has been engaging the Taliban leadership, albeit not with much success. These conflicting demands make Pakistan — in the eyes of the US and Nato countries — an unreliable partner and part of the problem rather than the solution.
The irony is that the military leadership now realises the inherent dangers for Pakistan in an allout victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan. It will inspire the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to intensify their insurgency and it is also possible that the Afghan Taliban may turn their sights on Pakistan — the strategic depth in reverse.
The question, then, is, how are Pakistan’s interests best served in this complex situation? The ideal approach would be to leave it to the Afghans to decide in an ‘Afghan-led, Afghan-owned process’, but that does not seem feasible in the current scenario. Islamabad finds itself trapped and is unable to navigate the political and diplomatic conundrum. The period from now until the end of 2014, however, provides a narrow window of opportunity to work with Nato and the US to develop a shared strategy that protects our national interests.
But a major impediment lies in taking this course. If India remains the main enemy in Pakistan’s security paradigm, Islamabad will continue the policy of co-opting militants, including the Afghan Taliban. By pursuing the same old policy of looking at every security problem through the Indian prism — while facing declining resources, internal turmoil and international isolation — it will result in increased reliance of Pakistan on militant proxies.
We are at the cusp of a situation where the moment of truth has arrived. This moment requires that we decide how the interests of our country can best be served. The militants with their pseudo religious-militaristic ideology and resources, generated through illegal means, continue to gain strength while the state is weakening. Any further indecisiveness on the government’s part and military leadership on how to deal with the Afghan, the TTP and other militant groups will only worsen the present situation.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 22nd, 2012.
COMMENTS (26)
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@abdussamad:
Please share with the ignorant readers like me as to what makes you sure that TTP or AFP will not turn on Pakistan after USA leaves.
Please Please.
A very balanced approach by Pakistan. If you see the war in Afghanistan from Pakistan’s perspective, they are the worst sufferers. Pakistan is all out to root out terrorism – not only in Pakistan but also from all surrounding region. But if Pakistan’s own sovereignty is jeopardized in the process, their rulers will have no face to show to the moderate elements (which surely form an electoral majority in the country). These moderates will ask a simple question “We were loosing our sovereignty to the terrorists, we fought against them. Now we are loosing it to the US led coalition. Now what?”, a question to which the government will have no answer. The coalition must understand its responsibilities toward the region. If there is instability, if there is extremism or terrorism, if there is hatred in the region, somewhere back in the annals of history each and every one of the partners had a contribution. Simply put its a problem we have all jointly created and jointly we must resolve it. That is the least that we owe to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
You are assuming that the Taliban will turn on Pakistan after winning in Afghanistan. That is a wrong assumption. They won't turn on Pakistan. Trust me, I know ;)
@Zalmai:in all seriosness you are right.We should have left afghanistan under Russian occupation which was in best interest of pakistan
Excellent, Sir. But I don't know if anyone is listening to your wise words.
@Shahid
Afghan organizations or terror organizations trained and funded by your country should have been dismantled yesterday. These organizations will be wiped out with or without Pakistan's help by the Afghan National Army and its security forces.
An excellent analysis. But no taker!! The policy makers and Military will follow their Jihadi agenda until another quake.
Talat sahab.You put it brilliantly ' stategic depth in reverse". I never heard or thought it that way. we have no choice except to tell all afghani organisations to leave pakistan and do whatever they want to do in Afghanistan.If they don't leave pakistan we should fight with them to leave. Pakistan should try to fight all extremist elements otherwise we will be wiped out by the fire we lighted ourselves. Is ghar ko agg lag gi ghar ke chiragh se.
Great opinion peace -- wish your civilian and military leaders could have read something like this 5 years ago when they had a chance to turn the ship around. You made your bed - now your going to have to sleep in it. No one trust you (not even the Taliban) and payback from all sides is coming.
@Truthbetold: " strong textIt is not just Talat Masood, but even most of the liberal media supported the use of jihadi proxies against India and Afghanistan until about five years ago. The majority of the Pakistani public still do as of today. " This is a shocking revealation that the entire country has happily supported criminal-jihadi-terrorists to hurt India and Afganistan. If this is indeed true, and has never bothered pakistani concious, and values, then there is no chance of any change of heart. Criminal tribes never change. they just become more criminal. The world is so different in their values. That is why pakistyan is so isolated in the world, and has zero trust or respect in the commity of Nations.
Sir, the nation has the habit of utter denial of realities and always live in the fantasies. Truth, Transparency coupled with Institutions and their leaders who need to set path to "Go by the Books" to strengthen the Pakistan and its Governments is the only option. Once done Pakistan would be the most developed country and won't face any security challenges as it has the people who are very talented. The second thing is we need to get rid of attitude of adhocism in resolving the serious issues. Tumor should be treated once and for all and Govt should not giving it a time to flourish and treat it again and again. No one is our enemy except our self if we are not giving attention to the internal and external problems.
Excellent piece as usual. It is heartening to see that Pakistani thinkers are waking up at last. I have observed Pakistan from the day it was born. I cannot think of a single policy that resulted in benefitting Pakistan or Pakistanis. Can anyone point out, or the writer can write about a single decision by Pakistani Government or Army that is not a matter of regret at this point in time?
The author asks "Can the Afghan forces hold up to the Taliban onslaught and are there any chances of a negotiated settlement? What role, if any, should Pakistan play to facilitate an orderly withdrawal?" The answer is with Pakistan's support to Taliban, Afghan forces may not hold up. As far the role is concerned The entire world is telling Pakistan that the only role she should play is to stop interfering in the affairs of other countries and stop being the exporter of terror. But this will not go with the author.
@Arjun, honestly, brilliant work bro. :)
Paradoxically, since then, Pakistan has been an ally of the US but also sided with forces against the US.
Is it a 'Paradox'' or is it 'Duplicity'.
I would say the latter, as it was a consciously evolved and doggedly pursued policy.
— the strategic depth in reverse.. That was a great line, one among many. But this does not translate into a true change in approach, as what you basically state is that you no longer have the resources or the wherewithal to continue on the current path, leading to the need for a rethink. Instead, this rethink should have been prompted by the consequences (almost every problem that Pakistan faces today) of going down this treacherous path in the first place.
what a hypocrite!!
@Jahaan aara:
'cos they get Re1.2 per bullet manufactured, Rs5.5 per grenade and Rs12.7 per RPG shell as bonus.....
Came the dawn?
@Arjun:
It is not just Talat Masood, but even most of the liberal media supported the use of jihadi proxies against India and Afghanistan until about five years ago. The majority of the Pakistani public still do as of today.
If a nuclear armed country fantasizes on using militant proxies, even God may not be able to save it. Duplicity and a hair brained Foreign Policy has brought the country to this state. From here there is no escape, only an redemption by acceptance of the TRUTH.
"the strategic depth in reverse."I like that. Very well said Arjun : The next line in the article is much more important "while facing declining resources, internal turmoil and international isolation" So is the author recommending a change in the stance because of the above threats of declining resources and international isolation or because the change is the most sensible and correct one ? To go further, has the author himself changed his stance only because of these reasons ??
@Arjun, you have brilliantly exposed the writer. The same proponents of using militant groups against India now want to claim that they did not argue for that policy. Its too late.
Talat Sahib
You say, "Paradoxically, since then, Pakistan has been an ally of the US but also sided with forces against the US," I do not believe that given the trust deficit between US and Pakistan. "Running with the hare and hunting with the hounds" will serve Pakistan's long term interests.
Those who remained chairmen of ordnance factories are fabulously rich. Why?
Talat Masood today...
Talat Masood in 2008(ironically on 9/11 2008)