How in the world it was thought that the United States upon which we depend for our daily bread so to say, let alone those lovely toys for the boys: the F-16s, helicopter gunships and all; and those lovely $$$s, would grovel before its own gofer. Just to open the land routes into Afghanistan?
And there they were, the Ghairat Brigades and their frontmen, loud TV ‘anchors’ totting up how many more billions the Americans were going to have to pay out because of our blockade, adding the spice of ‘ghairat’ and sovereignty and the people’s ‘will’. Never did the thought cross their little minds that for a superpower like the US which had already spent something like $1.4 trillion on this war on terror and counting the additional expense of using the northern route would be a trifling matter for the time it would take them to sort us out.
It is not for the first time that we have been at the short end of the American stick: it’s happened often enough for us to have learnt our lesson but such is the arrogance, or shall we call it, simply, the thick-headedness of those that call the shots, that we find ourselves standing embarrassed in front of the world yet again, murmuring: “It’s not only the Americans, there are 50 countries of Nato involved ... we’ll get side-lined by the whole world, whimper, whimper ...”.
Why, pray, did the strategists not think of this when they went ballistic over Salala, actually orchestrating a media campaign against the Americans in the ghairatmand press (what I call our raucous channels) just as they did over the Kerry-Lugar Bill? This campaign was just as fake, for, I will never tire of reminding my readers: exactly 10 days after issuing a most rude, nay rebellious press statement on the K-L Bill, the Sipah Salaar-i-Azam asked General Petraeus for more helicopter gunships!
This is what I tweeted on May 11, 2012: “Now that the Americans are serious about kicking butt, what bets that Nato/Isaf supplies will be running inside a month??!! The security establishment simply cannot do without those scrumptious $s and those weapons of war and spares. The rest is lies.” Was I wrong, reader?
The last straw was when the Nato chief himself (please note) pointedly said Pakistan would not be invited to the summit on Afghanistan in Chicago if the routes didn’t open. Abracadabra, the anchors went into turbo-charged overdrive extolling the good that would come from Pakistan attending the Chicago summit. Possessing very selective memories they had forgotten how they defended Pakistan’s ‘ghairatmand’ decision of boycotting the Bonn conference which very soon proved to be a very stupid idea indeed as I said in this space on Dec 8, 2011, predicated as it was only on misplaced ‘ghairat’ and nothing else. (Note that Pervez Hoodbhoy’s brilliant piece that has been ‘intellectualised’ beyond belief was pointing to just such destructive-to-ourselves ghairatmand actions).
But enough of all that. Pakistan is today facing a truly existential crisis. And while you have heard this ‘existential’ thingy many times before, this time around crunch time is upon us with great vehemence. Let us recognise that whilst our record was always bad, this latest caper has turned most of the world against us. Indeed, go to any country in the world with your green passport, even among the Ummah(!), and see the looks of horror on the border agents faces.
There is hardly any time left to us, friends: we must change course immediately. Let all the stakeholders pull together: The Deep State which is the preponderant power in the land, the political parties, and lay people, all of us must pull together recognising that a few more missteps such as the recent one and we are done for. And economic sanctions would be the least of our worries.
So, how to go about this project of reconciliation? First off, the Deep State must climb off its not-so-high-horse and honestly civilise itself. It must realise that it is nothing without the people’s support, and that if it gives up its heavy-handed ways like disappearing people whose decomposed bodies are then found on the roadsides; if it stops kidnapping and brutalising journalists such as young Umar Cheema, the people will be with it heart and soul. For, after all, it is ours.
We must cease living in the past; we must move on for only there lies salvation. It breaks my heart to see the PPP and the PML-N go head to head all over again, making one relive the late-eighties and nineties when others took advantage of this enmity between the two major parties and threw them out one after the other, repeatedly.
Let me say to President Asif Zardari and to Mr Nawaz Sharif: Please sirs, the country is in an extremely difficult situation. Do something before it is too late. Together gather all the stakeholders of Project Pakistan, yes, including the (hopefully reformed) commanders of the Deep State, and the leaders of all the political parties under one roof and discuss a way out of the dangerous waters in which we find ourselves. Set up, even now, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission and get this country together. Pakistan has many fine men and women who will do the right thing, even in these dire straits.
This is now an imperative and there is no time to lose.
P.S. And please, sirs, tell your friends in the ‘ghairatmand’ media not to shovel all of the blame on to the ‘bloody civilians’ for we well know how decisions such as closing/opening the routes into Afghanistan are taken!
Published in The Express Tribune, May 18th, 2012.
COMMENTS (48)
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The Pakistani Media anchors need to be trained to talk in a slow ,mature clear manner and not to shout and mince words as a whole generation of Pakistani Americans cannot make head or tail of the anchors rapid fire manner of speech.I agree with Mr Shafi the anchors are doing more harm than good for Pakistan.
An excellent article. The writer stands out for his cool analysis and not theatrics.
Good and very analytical article.
There is a need to look at 'Mother of All Problems' of Pakistan.
Due to her being 'India Centric' , Pakistan indulged in 'Fighting some one else's wars''. (Baghdad Pact , CENTO , SEATO ). Later she allowed herself to become Front Line State against Russian invasion of Afghanistan ( 1979/80 onwards ) and recent one being 'War Against Terror (2001 to date ). Sky would not have fallen if in 2001 Pakistan had said "NO" to USA . Even if India ( a very improbable possibility - later ,India refused to send troops to Iraq) had given air bases for US use , Pakistan govt would have been saved antagonizing her own populace against it by siding with the USA . Pakistan never ''Fought Pakistan's own War (for Pakistan) " , for 'Institutions Building' , land reforms (Zagirdari system) , building an industrial base , and against poverty ,illiteracy , religious fundamentalism/ bigotry , social disparities and host of other factors which help a nation to be great .
Present state of Pakistan is due to 'Failure of her Elites' who ruled / rule with an out dated mindset. There appears to be 'disconnect' between the 'rulers and the ruled' in Pakistan . They don't seem to be on the 'same grid' .
My best wishes for the people of Pakistan for resolving their problems .
My sincerest apologies if I have offended any sensibilities and appeared to pontificate
Thanks KS and thanks to ET for keeping u on ET. Recently they have brought very partial anchors as writers not good
The military establishment has conveyed its point loud and clear that no Silala like incidents would be tolerated in future. The Americans were even willing to apologize but the Pakistan government stopped them as they wanted to take the credit. The Americans may still render an apology.
Regarding rest of the demands, a high ranking US official will tell Zardari, if not told already, “we groomed you, implanted you by brokering NRO, supported your ascent to power, protected you from any mishap, ensured friendly opposition, saved you in memo-gate, provided US$50million to a select group of Pakistani media to build USA’s image and undermine your rivals, including the military establishment, etc so that you deliver to us. Now is the time. To ensure that you continue to be of use to us, we may apologise and will give you some compensation and budgetary support for face saving”.
Though it would be difficult for KS to swallow, the fact is that this time the civilian leadership was entrusted with the task to handle an important subject like Pak-US relations and they made a complete mess of it. Lesson: Ghairat and begging bowl do not go along, choose one.
@faraz
I stand corrected. You were making a valid point. We are on the same page.
@gp65:
Thes are all fatal distractions. We shot ourselves in the foot by refusing to hold a JOINT investigation with the US on the tragic killing of 24 brave men; we shot ourselves in the foot again by refusing to go to Bonn. We sulked like an immature spoilt brat would.
Get your act together, stop getting distracted, and stop these self-inflicted wounds. As a nation and a people we cannot afford it.
"Let me say to President Asif Zardari and to Mr Nawaz Sharif: Please sirs, the country is in an extremely difficult situation. Do something before it is too late". The only problem with this statement is that Zardari and company has lost credibility and every one knows that whatever they do in the next few months will be looked upon with suspicions. Are they hoodwinking the nation again with their dishonest tactics, by negating the laws of the land and involved in mega corruption. Pakistan was never encouraged to have mature democracy either by Armed Forces backed by external powers or feudals who were looking out for themselves and still do and that is why it will not be possible for these stakeholders to set aside their differences and get united in solving the severe problem this unfortunate country Pakistan is facing . I appreciate your intellect and sincerity but powers to be are sticking to these chairs like they own it and will not let go unless pryed open by some means.I think it is already past time to call for immediate elections and let the new government tackle the problems with some credibility.
@andleeb
Common myth --- keep repeating that to yourself when your sitting in the dark during one of your brownout/blackouts. I will remind you that N Korea also has nukes and like Pakistan it's people are 2-4" shorter than their neighbors because they don't eat properly.
One very important point has been overlooked : we are an atomic power and we will not be allowed to fail by the world community. We can continue to get as much aid as we want as long as our nuclear weapons are safe.
@kaalchakra: 'in the next 100 years that idea will not be controlling India'. I see this is how you pay your taxes, by delusion.
Is $364M too much a cost to take an alternate route? No way. Were they after OBL for all these years killing thousands of men, women and children ? Is Salala a friendly fire ? Come on ..Please open up your eyes and mind. US is going no where and we are trying to hide with in our herds hoping we can drag things to 2014 and wave NATO and US marines on their way back.This war is not going anywhere and US has just told Pakistan ..we are not leaving you ..We'll be there for you in your worst times. @Feroz Sb.. We were better off in the 6th century than today... Don't just relate your own failures to the relegion..
@kalachakra Who is to say that in the next 100 years that idea will not be controlling India and you would not even realize when that happened? In psychology day dreaming is considered a normal activity, but, your kind of wishful thinking is taken as a first symptom of schizophrenia!
Mr,Kamran Shafi after going through your article I am unable to understand who should be blamed and held responsible for this state of affairs of Pakistan, Military dictatorship,Politicians or masses(who elect their representatives)?In fact miseries of this country started after the death of Quaid e Azam and they are still going on.We are really a very unfortunate nation who could not find a sincere and patriot leadership which may pull Pakistan out of crises and make it progressive welfare state.So far as who ever took the reign of this country they have looted the country and achieved their nefarious designs.Disappointment is all over the country and no gleam of hope is visible.I wish may Allah bless us with a neat and clean leadership.
BruteForce
I don't care for the articles spewed by those who have lost faith, unity, and discipline - the three pillars of Islam's global reach. Those who have faith, unity, and discipline don't think in terms of a few decades, we think in terms of centuries. To you Pakistan is just a piece of land, but as I wrote earlier, it is a global idea to us. Who is to say that in the next 100 years that idea will not be controlling India and you would not even realize when that happened?
@Feroz:
People must quickly make up their mind whether they want to live in the 21st century or the 6th century.
A very sage advice, Sir. But what happens if some want to live in the 21st and others in the 6th?
And, is living in the 21st permitted by religion?
this is a flippant piece, which doesn't say anything new. KS needs to cut down on the booze and get his faculties in order. Why all this kudos for a silly piece? God help us.
@Kini: "@faraz $0.45 billion is probably the cheapest price any super power ever had to pay to completely sideline another country. It is peanuts compared to the trillions already spent by the US. Please read Kamran Shafi’s article again carefully, that is the point he is making. It is more of a death card for us than a trump card. Much like strategic death instead of depth."
I think you missed Faraz's sarcasm. He and you are on the same page it seems.
Some countries think before they do something, and some after they have done it. Pakistan seems to be the only country that thinks neither before nor after.
That is the point of this excellent article. Pakistan will be well advised to think both before and after.
@Cautious: Knowing the groups out of which the leadership of military and intelligence agencies emerges, it is doubtful if the changes that are required to deradicalise the populace and army in particular can emerge in the next two generations.
I feel very sorry for intellectuals like Mr Shafi who are forced to see the country go down the drain in front of their eyes, and are helpless. Extremism and and a demented radical ideology has the country in such a strong grip that clear, logical and rational thinking is now beyond the capacity of decision makers. Nobody wants to take responsibility but everyone wants to exercise their authority. The situation is irredeemable and the best the country can expect is to muddle through the next few years. Using and abusing RELIGION in the name of National Interests carries a heavy price. People must quickly make up their mind whether they want to live in the 21st century or the 6th century.
Where is @kaalchakra's response, I am searching.
All those things he and others like him had claimed for the route closure, all have turned out to be false.
@faraz
$0.45 billion is probably the cheapest price any super power ever had to pay to completely sideline another country. It is peanuts compared to the trillions already spent by the US. Please read Kamran Shafi's article again carefully, that is the point he is making. It is more of a death card for us than a trump card. Much like strategic death instead of depth.
@C. Nandkishore: But we refuse to see the elephant in the room! Regards, Mirza
@Ejaaz:
"It is going to be a long long time before “Goonda Raj” will disappear from this land it seems. Names and faces will change but disappearing people who end up in gunny sacks with their skulls drilled out is going to be with us for a long long time. " . One always heard about myth spun characters, most of them from the poorest slums of Karachi. Names like Dadal, Sheru, Kaala Naag etc., one was never sure whether they existed in reality. Come election times, one heard of some political party hired them for some arm twisting. . They were never a part of the mainstream. They were supposedly busy knocking each other off to retain their upper hand in plying the business of gun running, drugs etc. When PPP adopting the Amn Committee/Lyari Gangsters, as their militant wing became known, doubts were confirmed. . Recent article by an ex-Baloch senator from Lyari, reveals BB hiring her security personnel from of that slum. Makes you wonder whether the much dreaded FSF, a personal security detail of ZAB, hailed from the same shady background? Where are they now? Have they been absorbed or let out on pasture? Are there any links between the famous Amn Committee and presently invisible FSF? . Will severing of the ties between PPP and Lyari peace loving folk be the end of gunny sacks? Is that what the commentator meant by Goonda Raj? . Will the persons with drill machine survive till eternity like plastic bags and cockroaches?
To go one step further, real existential problems will start for Pakistan once USA leaves Afghanistan. The door is open for Pakistan for two years only.
@Meekal Ahmed: Not sure Mr .Shafi is criticizing the decision of opening the Salala routes per se. I think the thrust of Mr. Shafi's argument is that the justifications being provided now need to be reviewed in the light of other statements made in recent past: 1. If the fact that NATO supply route affects relations with 48 countries was a basis for opening the route, why was this not a factor while closing the route. Why was it not a factor while inflaming passions on this issue? 2. If attending Bonn conference led by US was so important, how come skipping Bonn which was chaired by Germany - a NATO country a wise move? 3. When military took the decision of closing Salala checkpoint without consulting civilians, why is it pushing the accountability of this unpopular but necessary decision on the civilians?
Dear Pak analysts, Please stop saying 'existential crisis' with respect to a country of 190 million people. This term is as completely devoid of meaning as 'ghairat'
NATO supply route is only one issue. Americans are not fools that they have put the bounty on Hafeez Saeeds. They will not leave Pakistan unless she delivers on all these most wanted persons. Playing double games won't help any more. Pakistan has to clean her acts.
Come on shafi sahb! who on earth are you asking to do something? They are the problem,not even part of the problem, and u expect them to steer the country out of crisis. Why dnt u ask the two to shut up and leave this poor country alone. They hv sucked enough of our blood.
Mind-blowing, awesome, and right on the spot article. Bravo Sir for summing up problem in simple but factual statements and good conclusion in the end. Wish our strategists and powerful policy makers pay heed to genuine points you raised. Though It seems difficult in this land of pure, let's hope one more time.
Kudos to KS for another pragmatic Op Ed. Thanks ET for that. Most Pakistanis do not understand. Blackmailing cannot be tolerated by any civilized person or country. The first rule of blackmail is never accepting the demands of blackmailer. Even by not accepting the demands may cost a lot more. Blackmailing must be nipped in the bud. The US called Pakistan’s bluff with the knowledge that we would go back crawling on our knees did cost the US some money but brought us back to where we belong. Pakistan needs cash, weapons and their spare parts. Who else is going to give them away? You talked about a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, why start telling the truth now? What has changed for the establishment? This is an alien concept in Pakistan.
Mr Shafi,
You know I have been one of your critics. I still believe you love to regurgitate a lot with nothing new. BUT your suggestion of "Set up, even now, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission and get this country together." is a good one indeed. I truly believe the time has come to let bygones be bygones on the condition that wealth looted by rulers (all) is returned, and this along with other crimes are admitted in an open commission in front of all (daily telecast). This should be only for couple of months and after that sword for all "holier than thou" crowd.
Mickey,
Here, I must disagree with the thust of your argument.
I would have thought that after you had had your little fun and digs, which we all enjoy, you would have applauded this decision. Whatever the motivation, this frail, collapsing and aid-dependent country had little choice to abandon our false bravado and our adversaries know it.
Sure, some may think that cutting off aid and standing strong would be good for Pakistan.
Perhaps.
But I don't think we are ready to pick up the slack and chaos that a "sudden-death" would impose upon us.
I wish we were.
Well well... Pakistan needs to make itself internally strong. It certainly has the potential. We the people must stand up and live up the occasion: i) We have to UNITE ii) We have to work hard and with a sincerity of purpose
Once we become economically independent and united, we can call the shots. Unfortunately, as everyone and harrry's aunt said, "beggars can't be choosers"... but we have to realise that we have chosen to be beggars by virtue of our insincerity... that needs to change... and THAT in turn will lead to the strength which can put the "choice" in our hands
Fantastic article sir. Keep safe.
Kamran Shafi Saheb,
Please accept my regards and solute for writing the truth and for letting us know about the mental calibre of our military establishment. But as they say; Somethings can't change.
It took a lot more than closing the NATO supply line to develop that kind of reputation. A constant barrage of terrorist activities throughout the World with inevitable links to Pakistan is a starter - finding OBL hiding outside your Military Academy was perhaps the capstone of notorious actions which have ruined Pakistan's reputation. . The reality is that for Pakistan to fix the problems that the author discusses it's going to have to finally admit that major changes in the leadership of it's military and intelligence services is long overdue - something that would take stronger leadership that you currently have.
The first half of the article is yet another realistic analysis on the current situation, contributing factors, key milestones and major takeaways. The second half is yet another pointless attempt to deliver a wake-up call to the hearing impaired.
In case PAK establishment tries to thump its chest the $364 million / year. The money is pittance for the NATO and the campaign will be officially over next year. After that, PAK has to allow supplies to Afghanistan under regular trade treaty, free. And the increased tariff money undoubtedly will come at the expense of other development projects.
PAK PM had said: if PAK people don't like the mess in PAK that they are creating, they can leave. Need I say more why the mess came about in the first place. Appealing to these political parties is like crying in deaf ears.
Seriously, why don't "they" listen to you? You are not incorrect but don't down play the fact that the land is not going anywhere and neither are the people. The rulers including the generals might disappear to their palaces and their Dachas overseas and their families will live comfortably on the looted future, but the people here will survive and manage for we are used to starving and dying. So we will manage and we will live. It is going to be a long long time before "Goonda Raj" will disappear from this land it seems. Names and faces will change but disappearing people who end up in gunny sacks with their skulls drilled out is going to be with us for a long long time.
Yes its US treasure but we will never forget the blood our young men and women have paid with in Afghanistan. Nor will there be long term forgiveness to the forces that aided their spilling.
Just can not disagree with you on this one. Its makes for very sensible reading. Out of this whole NATO route kerfuffle the army comes out with minus points and sadly due to this the PPP gets an undeserved plus half point.
Good attempt Dr.Shafi
Well said Mr Shafi !
Northern distribution network for NATO supplies, compared to route through Pakistan, costs an extra 38 million dollars a month, or 0.45 billion dollars a year. This 0.45 billion dollars is the actual worth of our geostrategic significance! This is the “trump card” which we were holding on and bragging about for past 11 years.