The switcheroo: Instead of Iran, import power from Central Asia, says US

Washington wants Islamabad to forego gas imports for power generation and rely on direct electricity imports.

ISLAMABAD:

It seems that the United States will try just about any approach to dissuade Pakistan from going ahead with the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, pitching ideas that are overly optimistic at best and delusional at worst. The latest in this line-up is the idea that Pakistan should import about 8,300 megawatts of electricity from the Central Asian republics, with the transmission lines passing through war-torn Afghanistan.

Pakistan plans to import about 750 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of gas from Iran to generate about 3,500 megawatts of electricity domestically. The US is proposing that Pakistan shelve those plans and directly import electricity from Central Asia through two separate projects, which the US proposes be merged.

The estimates for how much power Pakistan can get from these two sources appears to be somewhat questionable. For instance, the CASA project was supposed to supply Pakistan with about 1,000 megawatts of electricity for about five months during peak season at a cost of about $965 million. The US, however, is now saying that Pakistan will be able to get 2,300 megawatts for the entire year.

CASA was designed in 2004 to export about 1,300 megawatts of electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, of which 300 megawatts would go to Afghanistan and the rest to Pakistan. “But there have been several changes since 2004 and other changes are under way, so CASA requires modification,” a senior water and power ministry official said quoting a plan proposed by the US.

One of the major changes is that Afghanistan now has indigenous electricity generation capacity. “Afghanistan now has a 220-kilovolt grid at present and had now surplus power,” said the official. The Asian Development Bank is funding a project to make this into a high-capacity 500-kilovolt grid running from Turkmenistan to Kandahar.

The second project is called TUTAP because it connects the power grids of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan to Pakistan. The US estimates that Pakistan can get about 6,000 megawatts of electricity from that project for a combined 8,300 megawatts from the CASA-TUTAP 2012 project.

Under the TUTAP project, 500-kilovolt transmission lines will be laid to supply 2,400 megawatts of electricity through Afghanistan at Peshawar, 1,200 megawatts at Bannu, and 2,400 megawatts at Quetta. Short line links will be connected across the border to the Pakistan grid at Peshawar, Bannu, and Quetta at a cost of $200 million. Afghanistan will build a 500-kilovolt transmission line from Turkmenistan to Kabul and onward to Jalalabad, Khost, and Kandahar. There will be at least two independent power plants in Afghanistan, which will be connected to this grid.

If the project goes ahead, about 3,550 megawatts will be available by 2013, with about 1,300 megawatts coming from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, 1,000 megawatts from Turkmenistan, and 250 megawatts from a Chinese power plant in Afghanistan. By 2016, that supply will go up to 6,750 megawatts, as Uzbekistan comes online with 2,000 megawatts of electricity, and Turkmenistan increases its contribution to 2,400 megawatts. Another 800 megawatts might also come from Afghanistan. Turkmenistan also stands ready to increase its supply to 5,000 megawatts if Pakistan requires more power.

At present, Afghanistan is importing 300 megawatts each from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, 80 megawatts from Turkmenistan and 188 megawatts is being generated from Afghan power plants. Afghanistan’s demand stands at 240 megawatts.

Afghanistan-backed projects

CASA project was supposed to supply Pakistan with about 1,000 megawatts of electricity for about five months during peak season at a cost of about $965 million

Under the TUTAP project, 500-kilovolt transmission lines will be laid to supply 2,400 megawatts of electricity through Afghanistan at Peshawar, 1,200 megawatts at Bannu, and 2,400 megawatts at Quetta.

Iran-backed project

Pakistan plans to import about 750 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of gas from Iran to generate about 3,500 megawatts of electricity domestically

Fearing sanction from the US, the country’s largest bank National Bank of Pakistan and the country’s largest exploration company Oil and Gas Development Company Limited have already refused to finance the project.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 10^th, 2012.