Disputed projection: Wheat output put on higher side at 27m tons

Planning Commission reluctant to include the ‘optimistic’ figure in Economic Survey.

ISLAMABAD:

Despite a 2.5 per cent decline in cultivated area, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has estimated wheat production at 27.35 million tons in the current season, the highest in the country’s history but largely contested by the planners.

Though the number, if accepted, will push up this year’s annual growth rate by 0.2 per cent, the Planning Commission and the economic wing of the finance ministry are reluctant to add the estimate to the upcoming Economic Survey.

According to the estimates given by PBS officials in a recent meeting on agricultural crops, wheat production has been put at 27.35 million tons. The projection is 2.35 million tons higher than the estimate given in Annual Plan 2011-12 of the Planning Commission.

Talking to The Express Tribune, the PBS officials, who presented the figure, insisted that the estimate was accurate and based on data provided by the provinces. However, the Statistics Division secretary said PBS has not officially given the data to the Planning Commission.

The PBS officials insisted that the number was based on the crop reporting system of the provinces and it only compiled the final figure for the Planning Commission. The number has been worked out on the basis of higher per acre yield, estimated at 31.5 maunds (40 kg).

Documents show that against cultivation of 8.9 million hectares last year, this year wheat was planted on 8.68 million hectares, 222,000 hectares or 2.5 per cent less than last year. However last year, per acre yield was 30.7 maunds.

Compared to the PBS estimate, the Planning Commission has come up with a conservative figure of 23.99 million tons, which is 1.21 million tons less than last year’s wheat output.

In the Annual Plan, wheat production for this season has been assessed at 25 million tons.

Cause of problem

Officials of the Planning Commission and the finance ministry attribute the controversial figure to the 18th Constitution Amendment, under which the food and agriculture ministry has been given to the provinces. This also resulted in devolution of the Federal Committee on Agriculture – a body that finalised agricultural production figures.

The federal government has established the Ministry of Food Security and Research and transferred 18 functions of the agricultural ministry to the food security ministry in October 2011. But the new ministry does not have the expertise and the staff to perform the job, said an official of the Planning Commission.

PBS officials also provided projections for sugarcane, rice and cotton crops. They put sugarcane production in the current season at 56.2 million tons, 1.4 million tons less than the estimate in Annual Plan 2012. Rice production was estimated at 6.16 million tons against 6.6 million tons in the Annual Plan while cotton output was put at 12.6 million bales compared to 12.8 million bales in the Annual Plan.

Textile millers expect cotton production to be between 14 and 15 million bales. However, Planning Commission officials contend that the higher projection was due to the difference in weight of a bale of cotton. Textile millers calculate a bale at 170 kg while official estimates are based on a bale of 176 kg.

Firming up last year’s data

PBS also firmed up last year’s crop production figures. Against an estimate of 24.2 million tons, it put wheat production at 25.2 million tons. The increase of one million tons will push up last year’s gross domestic product by one percentage point to 2.5 per cent.

For the current fiscal year, the government had set the economic growth target
at 4.2 per cent, but it was later revised downward to 3.6 per cent.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 8^th, 2012.