Despite all the rhetoric of conspiracy, the Senate polls did take place. The party that stands victorious following the polls, as expected, is undisputedly the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) – which now holds 41 seats (including the 3 withheld Balochistan seats) of the 104-member Senate.
It was therefore no surprise that it was the PPP that was, for months, crying foul about plans to somehow postpone the polls. From theories that said that the National Assembly would be dissolved by undemocratic forces to theories of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) dissolving its own Punjab government in order to leave the electoral college of the Senate polls incomplete, conspiracy was abound.
According to the PPP, including no less than the prime minister himself, forces opposed to it wanted to deny the party a massive Senate presence – the argument being that such massive presence would mean a perpetuation of its power beyond the next elections, which are expected anytime inside the next year.
But how significant, really is the PPP’s victory?
The answer lies in a grey area.
Firstly, the PPP was already the single largest party in the Senate with 27 members. That lead has just been enhanced – dramatically, though – up to 41 members, which is still not a clear majority (requiring 52 seats).
In any case, the Senate, at the end of the day, is not nearly as powerful as the other house of the Parliament, the National Assembly.
While the Federal Cabinet has been made “responsible and accountable” to the Senate under the 18th Amendment, according to constitutional expert SM Zafar, this accountability is only on paper.
Nor are yesterday’s gains reflective of new voter confidence or fresh mandate – after all, the electoral college is the same one that saw the PPP come to power back in 2008. It is, in essence, a delayed victory.
It is true that the any legislation by the National Assembly also requires the Senate’s approval. But at the end of the day, objection by the Senate is not enough to stop legislation. According to constitutional expert SM Zafar, if the deadlock persists, a joint session is called for and the bill voted for again. A joint session would obviously give a heavier advantage to the 342-member National Assembly as opposed to a 104-member Senate.
On a money bill, such as the budget, the Senate cannot even vote. They can “recommend” changes, but the changes are not binding.
But let’s not get that far.
According to analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi, a PPP-dominated legislature will not have “a major impact”, even for a non-PPP government, because “[the two] fight but they do cooperate.” He says that it has happened in the past, and cites the example of the executive in the United States being run by the Democratic Party, while the House of Representatives is run by the opposing Republicans. It still works.
The opposition doesn’t seem too intimidated either.
PML-N’s Ahsan Iqbal doesn’t see the PPP’s domination of the Senate as a big problem – even for a future government that will be run by his party. “For all reasonable legislation, they will have to give support … else they will be exposed.”
“Even if they oppose, there will be a joint session.”
Iqbal also recalls that the PMLQ-MMA alliance that ruled the Senate when the incumbent government came to power did not really cause any trouble for the PPP.
While he did once again mention the “conspiracies and hurdles” to the Senate elections, PPP’s Qamar Zaman Kaira also played down the victory on Friday, simply saying that the victory was another step in the effort to strengthen the democratic system. “It is a victory of the system.”
He continued: “Yes, it will be an advantage, but we will not misuse it (if faced with an opposing government).”
So what was all the commotion about?
There are other advantages – ones that may interest the PPP for different reasons – reasons other than governance and perpetuation of democratic systems. After all, the Senate is the electoral college for the presidential election – one that that has a major say at the end of the day.
Also, the chairperson of the Senate sits in for the president when he’s out of town or incapacitated. And we know the president wouldn’t like strangers in the palace.
Then there is the concept of perceived power. As much as anything else, the Senate elections are a symbolic victory for the PPP. According to Rizvi, “psychologically, it has an impact” … the effect will be more along the lines of “look, the PPP is not dead.”
And that’s where so much of the PPP’s strength is derived from, historically. Just the fact that the elections were held is a victory for the PPP as much as the result itself. Six months ago, people were thinking that the Senate polls would not happen – and would be stopped to stymie the PPP’s progress. That they have happened is a boost to the PPP, because the party had put the polls, which are routine, forward as their personal objective against the plotting of non-democratic forces. As one retired PPP old hand put it well: “When ‘they’ come – it doesn’t matter what system is in place.”
But, at the end of the day, nothing happened. They were just scheduled polls. That, too, for the Senate.
Outgoing
PML-Q
Tariq Azim Khan
Wasim Sajjad
Sardar Mohammad Jamal Khan Leghari
Syed Javed Ali Shah
Lt Gen (retd) Javed Asharf
Mohmmad Ali Durrani
Naeem Hussain Chattha
SM Zafar
Haroon Khan
Gulshan Saeed
Nilofer Bakhtiar
Abdul Ghaffar Qureshi
Semeen Siddiqui
Ammar Ahmed Khan
Fauzia Fakhar-uz-Zaman
Mir Mohabat Khan Marri
Jan Muhammad Khan Jamali
Rehana Yahya Baloch
Saeed Ahmed Hashmi
MQM
Ahmed Ali
Syed Tahir Hussain Mashahadi
Dr Abdul Khaliq Pirzada
PML-F
Syed Sajid Hussain Zaidi
BNP
Mir Israrullah Khan
PKMAP
Abdur Rahim Khan Mandokhail
PML(N)
Mohammad Ishaq Dar
JUI-F
Dr Khalid Mehmood Soomro
Muhammad Ismail
Incoming
PML(N)
M Hamza (Punjab, general)
Sardar Zulfiqar Khan Khosa (Punjab, general)
Muhammad Zafarullah Khan Dhandhla (Punjab, general)
Malik Muhmmad Rafique Rajwana (Punjab, general)
Ishaq Dar (Punjab, technocrats)
Nuzhat Sadiq (Punjab, women)
Kamran Michael (Punjab, minorities)
Nisar Mohammad (K-P, general)
ANP
Azam Hoti (K-P, general)
Shahi Syed (K-P, general)
Baz Mohammad Khan (K-P, general)
Zahida Khan (K-P, women)
Ilyas Ahmed Bilour (K-P, technocrats)
Amar Jeet Malhotra (K-P, minorities)
MQM
Mustafa Kamal (Sindh, general)
Tahir Mashhadi (Sindh, general)
Nasreen Jalil (Sindh, women)
Dr Farough Naseem (Sindh, technocrats)
JUI-F
Mufti Abdul Sattar (Balochistan, technocrats)
Haiman Das (Balochistan, minorities)
Mohammad Talha Mahmood (K-P, general)
PPP
Osman Saifullah (Federal capital, technocrats)
Babar Awan (Punjab, general)
Barrister Aitezaz Ahsan (Punjab, technocrats)
Khalida Perveen (Punjab, women)
Raza Rabbani (Sindh, general)
Saeed Ghani (Sindh, general)
Mukhtiar Ali Dhamrah (Sindh, general)
Dr Kareema Khwaja (Sindh, general)
Hari Ram Kishori Lal (Sindh, minorities)
Muddasir Seher Kamran (Sindh, women)
Abdul Hafeez Shaikh (Sindh, technocrats)
Rozi Khan Kakar (Balochistan, technocrats)
Farhatullah Babar (K-P, technocrats)
Rubina Khalid (K-P, women)
Saifullah Bangash (K-P, general)
Ahmed Hassan (K-P, general)
Published in The Express Tribune, March 3rd, 2012.
COMMENTS (24)
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@Author "grapes are sour!"
Extremely poor political analysis - they sell senate seats for million and millions of rupees, and yet it's not a big deal? really? the analyst needs to stop being so dismissive and see where he's living before spouting such ludicrous statements.
also, it's seven days and not 15 days - everyone needs to read the constitution again.
"3. Procedure with respect to Money Bill. [70A] [(1) Notwithstanding anything contained in Article 70, a Money Bill shall originate in the National Assembly. Provided that simultaneously when a Money Bill, including the Finance Bill containing the Annual Budget Statement, is presented in the National Assembly, a copy thereof shall be transmitted to the Senate which may, within seven days, make recommendations thereon to the National Assembly. (1A) The National Assembly shall, consider the recommendations of the Senate and after the Bill has been passed by the Assembly with or without incorporating the recommendations of the Senate, it shall be presented to the President for assent.]"
http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/part3.ch2.html
@mansoor - under the 18th amendment, the senate can only discuss the budget and recommend changes inside 15 days. The recommendations are non-binding.They still can't stop a money bill. Please read the constitution before passing ludicrous comments.
The way of next president has been opened, who will be the new president? he would be from the PPP.,may be the same,
All the predictions proved mere a dust, Pakistan People Party won more seats in the senate, and now have crucial majority in the center.
In the way political observer predicting that, the next government in the center would be of the PPP.
The persons waiting their turn as a prime minister would face defeat,horrific defeat.
The writer needs to update his knowledge of Constitution.
Prior to 18th amendment Finance / Money bill commonly known as the budget did not need require the assent of the Senate. However, after the amendment the budget has to be passed by both houses.
In simple words, in case a new post election non-PPP government drags its foot on funds of smaller provinces or other matters, a PPP-ANP nexus can halt the budget and shut down the government :)
The architecture of the Senate and the National Assembly and the engineering that makes them work is clearly constructed for the advancement and benefit of the 700 or so people who are involved in this process. The beauty and the irony is that all this is done in the name of the people of Pakistan and given the label 'democracy'. What an insult to a good system.
@Dr Saifur Rehman:
Oh get a grip on reality will you? PPP is the biggest disgrace to any self-respecting 'liberal' and 'secular' person in Pakistan - their failure is part of the reason why religious parties have such popular support
Pakistan, and only Pakistan, is responsible for her problems.. yes, others do take advantage... but its over as far as i'm concerned!
It's saddening how elections in our country work. With a bogus people's mandate in 2008, 4 years of poor governance, these senate elections are an extension of PPP's raj, rather than an extension of their mandate. The gall on some of these politicians; later tonight, they'll appear on talkshows and boast about how they've been chosen by the people to represent them. Please tell me about these masses who are breathing easier today because of the work of this government. How can these parliamentarians sleep at night...more importantly, how can there "leaders" have any motivation to perform or deliver as long as they have in their power the resources to offer handouts leading upto the election (or other forms of patronage) and be re-elected? There is no incentive; the system, in its current form, is set up to fail. I am not anti-democracy...infact I can't wait for these parties, or at least their leadership to be weeded out of our system. I urge Pakistanis to recognize the impact of their vote.
It means there's only a short time before someone says they were rigged.
The senate results prove that there is only one party in Pakistan that can win seats in each of the provinces. No matter what their opponents say, there is no other national party than PPP.
@Ch Allah Daad:
How do you know that they win have majority. I think, first of all they have to bring their money back from abroad. Why all are investing abroad? Why we do not speak truth? All leaders looks Nationalist but do all they act as National?
Muhammad Naeem ul Fateh, PhD
@Taimoor: If Senate was so worthless, then why this much hype was created both in print and electronic media? Hours and hours of Talk-Shows aired on the subject. Was it just fake? And purposely done to make fool of people and make money
The genius will find, or creat otherwise, sufficient material to serve this purpose. If Senate was so worthless, then why this much hype was created both in print and electronic media? Hours and hours of Talk-Shows aired on the subject. Was it just fake? And purposely done to make fool of people and make money.
First, I wolud like to congratulate PPP for landmark victory. PPP is liberal and progressive party and this is good news for all progressive forces that PPP has got reasonable majority in upper house. I would like to suggest PPP central leadership to legislate for secular values and to promote it in the country. Secondly, Now it should also redo the objectionable clauses in the constitution. Those objectionable clauses, which directly or indireclty hit minorities. Because some handful of fanatics make the most of objectionable clause. It is the high time that PPP should legislate in this regard.
This is the 21st century jounalism - Focus and propogate anything and everything negative. The genius will find, or creat otherwise, sufficient material to serve this purpose. If Senate was so worthless, then why this much hype was created both in print and electronic media? Hours and hours of Talk-Shows aired on the subject. Was it just fake? And purposely done to make fool of people and make money.
Where is the people's mandate? At present stage Pakistan is at its worst stage, New peoples mandate is required. ruling party has not delivered how a failed party can be winner without peoples fresh mandate
Contempt Conviction: And if the SC convicts Babar Awan of contempt of court?
Mudassir Sehar Kamran is the principal at my formal school. She is not in Pakistan, contested her seat from outside of Pakistan and does not plan on leaving her job simply because she won a seat in the Senate.
With an expted majority in National Assembly and enough representation in Senate PML(N) will form a very strong government after general elections.
So you are suggesting that Everybody in Pakistan were stupid giving so much importance to senate elections?