1974 was a long time ago. But not really. I remember it vaguely. No, not the headlines, or the events, or even humdrum happenings, but my first two-wheeler bicycle.
While I was learning to balance on my green Sohrab bike, the historic Islamic summit was taking place in Lahore; India was conducting its first nuclear test; US president Richard Nixon was resigning from office; Muhammad Ali was knocking out George Foreman in the ‘Rumble in the Jungle’ fight; Germany was lifting the FIFA World Cup; and Abba was winning the Eurovision music contest.
All this a mere 38 years ago. A long time. But not really.
Now let’s look forward. 38 years from now will be the year 2050. If I am still alive, I will be a very old man and 1974 — and my green Sohrab bike — would seem a lifetime ago. But in 2050, the year 2012 would be as recent as 1974 today.
What then is the connection?
In 1974, America’s was the largest economy in the world, followed by the Soviet Union, then Japan at number three, West Germany at four and France at five. China was the ninth-largest economy and India at number thirteen.
In 2050, the global research department of HSBC has made the following projections for the top economies of the world: China tops the list, followed by USA at second, India three, Japan at four, Germany at five and — here’s the interesting part — Pakistan thirtieth.
Here’s how the report explains: “There are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive.” Then it mentions the ingredients for success: “Demographics — the size of your working population — along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends.... Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law.”
So in 2050, the number one and number three economies of the world will have — among others — one thing in common: they will both share a border with Pakistan. We, therefore, are in an enviable position, and ideally placed to leverage this huge geographical bonanza.
Now let’s return to 2012. Political uncertainty blankets the country like a thick smog. The economy is in shambles. Human development indices are nose-diving and Millennium Development Goals are already beyond reach. Social sectors like education and health are groaning under the burden of criminal neglect while the population growth is outstripping GDP growth. And how concerned is the leadership?
Well, the Senate elections next month appear to be the ultimate high for the government. Then if all goes well (sic), we will have a politically-popular but economically-ruinous budget, followed possibly by general elections. A fractured coalition government will return, and we will be back to where we were.
There is a clear disconnect between 2012 and 2050 when it comes to Pakistani leadership. A disconnect borne of living for the moment and being a willing hostage to personal, familial and political vested interests. On paper, Pakistan is a lucky country and has all the ingredients to become a regional powerhouse by 2050. A youthful population offering the economic fruits of a demographic dividend, sufficient natural resources waiting to be exploited, a growing middle class unencumbered by the pitfalls of a backward and medieval feudal mindset, a rapid rate of urbanisation and endless possibilities to reap the advantage of proximity to the world’s largest and third-largest economies.
What more could any country want.
Well actually, a leadership with its head screwed on right. A leadership which realises Pakistan requires a strategic reorientation to leap forward and rise to its potential. A leadership which recognises we require peace with all our neighbours and by peace I don’t mean just an absence of war, but real peace which spurs free trade, social harmony and cultural cooperation.
There’s a brave new world waiting for us 38 years from now. It is there for us. But more so for our children, who today are learning how to ride that green Sohrab bicycle.
Thirty-eight years is a long time. But not really.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 5th, 2012.
COMMENTS (34)
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This article makes a basic mistake - it views progress and achievement from an exclusively economic point of view.
To me it seems that Pakistan's national vision is not merely of lowly economics - dukandari or banyagiri if we want to be a little disrespectful. Of course, Pakistanis wish to be rich like, or richer than everybody else, but Pakistani national goal is much larger, grander, and nobler - of spreading true justice throughout the world, and being a beacon of real truth to all.
Balancing that goal with the rest is a bit harder than say, India's goals of just baniyagiri and somehow surviving along without a great national purpose.
@Arijit Sharma: Khoob bhalo. Cool.
@Irshad Khan: Sir, there is no need to be despondent. Yes, the country has made awful choices of the options it had since independence. India made the smarter choices and are well positioned to exploit whatever opportunities come up. China is the hare in the race compared to India a tortoise. Why should you fear if India creates additional jobs, if jobless Pakistani citizens get some of them what is the problem? Bangladesh is the dark horse I will back if Sheikh Hasina continues in Power and the country remains secular. Like Pakistan it has geographical advantages it can exploit being the link between South Asia and South East Asia. Burma too has a bright future after decades of being in a black hole.
BRAVO. Well done for a well written and an eye opening article. You are a thinker and you are not only a genius but marvellous. You have given a direction of thinking to the people. You have written many things, between the lines, which many of comments giving intelligentia have failed to understand. Go ahead young man. But I disagree with you on few points, number one-- with the present rate of growth and other circumstances India might be second largest economy and fifth may be either Indonesia or Malaysia. Secondly mindset in Pakistan will hardly change and with the help of innocent HARIS/Rural population, feudal lords and their children will continue to rule the country and will not allow education and Industry to grow and flourish. We shall continue to remind our people that our enemies are our neighbours and we have to make preparations to fight and destroy them as a matter of first priority, resultantly, we shall not be thirtieth but one-thirtieth economy of the world in 2050.
I start shivering when it comes I guess that our manpower will be recruited by India as their labour force just I see it now in film Industry and related fields in the name of art promotion but in real sense only for earning. Fahad, you are great, please continue to show the realities and correct path, in your well versed writings. May God help and guide you for this good cause.
Imran Khan is the only leader who can harness this potential. He is the only hope who has shown the will to try putting some of the things right. I will be happy even if we are amongst top 50.
In 1974 no one thought USSR would have dramatic fall, they were part of the second world country and India a 3rd world country. No one thought Germany would unite or Eurozone would be so big.
Predicting future is a guess, but few good signs are on the horizon...with Bangladesh and Burma getting on in the ASEAN, APAC juggernaut, the world economy thrust will move from US & Europe towards Asia (China,Japan, Korea, Asean & India).
Many countries in todays 3rd world countries from Africa to would rise and even the South American countries.
Dollar wont be a reserved currency....but not sure what would replace it.
India and Pakistan would not go for war.
@mansoon: in my opinion it close to zero. That's what many experts say, all of them predict a maximum of 2 to 3 years for the state to collapse. Managing the nuclear weapons that will become a free for all is a big concern to india, i hope they are already at the job of drawing up a plan to manage the endgame.
i have one doubt what is the probability of pakistan being still there on the face of the world in 2050
@amit: its 30th not 13th.
Pakistan will become a top economy only when the State is separated from religion. USA, UK, France, Germany, Japan China, India are secular in practice.
Here’s how the report explains: “There are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive.” Then it mentions the ingredients for success: “Demographics — the size of your working population — along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends…. Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law.”
Above is quoted from the article for ready reference. Our misfortunes are:
1) There are no long term economic trends 2) There is no efforts to increase literacy rate 3) Even the so called democratic governments don't practice democracy 4) (Strong) Rule of law is exception rather than a rule
So it is easy to foretell where will we be in 2050. Why not live in reality rather than in delusion?
Projections also say that Pakistan will be 4th most populous country by 2050. Pakistan must seriously implement family planning otherwise things will get out of hand.
Actually a bit wrong on the Ranking part.
Not all reports agree that China will be the biggest economy. Some also say India overtake China. Like the recent Citi group report.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-11-12/news/303912681largest-economy-demographic-dividend-indian-economy
http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-budget-2011-why-india-will-be-the-number-1-economy-in-the-world-by-2050/20110224.htm
India will already become the 3rd largest economy by 2015, just 3 years away, surpassing Japan. All this with a hectic Democracy. As the time rolls on the Indian engine will acquire more muscle and will be well lubricated.
Goldman-sachs in their report say India will equal the US in the 2nd place.
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/pdf/world2050emergingeconomies.pdf
"Fourth, taking account of these demographic trends, our base case projections suggest that India has the potential to be the fastest growing large economy in world over the period to 2050, with a GDP at the end of this period of close to 60% of that of the US at market exchange rates, or of similar size to the US in PPP terms.", it says.
If you look at the World 200 or 300 years ago, India and China were the largest economies in the World. Things are just getting back to normal.
India has a better chance than China simply because structurally it has very little to change, while with growing income among its population, China will be forced to have a "Chinese Spring" in a few years, as when income grows, yearning for freedoms also does.
The study which writer refers to, for 2050 picture is part of theories put up by various western agencies..keeping in mind the present condition, potential and likely growth in next 40 years. As per this study. India will be ranking above Japan, European countries like Germany, UK, France etc, even Russia. It would be worth understanding the reasons, conditions why such a high growth is estimated for India. The seeds of development were planted & nurtured since 1947 by India's leaders - political, industrial. education, Health, Science, technology, Social ..etc. leadership in all these spheres played major role in building solid foundation for India to catapult ahead, even though some may say..its been slow, teeth grinding rate of growth. Pakistan has basic ingredients..which is youth on its side. Its upto its leadership..not just politicians, but also other people who can influence to show path to its masses the basic requirements for peace, harmony, tolerance, discipline etc. Pakistanis are talented, hence we are hopeful, out of the present moribund situation some moderate, forward looking leader will spring up to take Pakistan ahead.38 years are lot of year..for nation to either progress or fall back. Good Luck !!!!!
Another shrill cry about senate election .... When AZ contested election a famous news guru requested Army to stop. Why mr Fahad you don't do that ask some to cancel senate election. Criminal neglect of health! In UK NHS budget is 120 billion dollars and do the math.....Is that neglect or .......we are spending money on basic human right aka nationa security...
@Ali Tanoli:
Ali,yes you are right India and china will become top economies in the world but it beats me how you included Pakistan. I am not for a moment discounting Pakistans capability to be one but the route it is opting to take now does not indicate it is moving in that direction.
@amit: He did not say 13th but 30th. If only Pakistan were going to be 13th, that would be the real achievement even in 50 years. This can only be done by controlling non productive expenses and expensive war toys and huge army. No politician can do that in Pakistan. One more thing being the number one or number two economy does not mean that people would be the richest in the world. China's or India's economy can be more than the US but still low per capita income. Regards, Mirza
Unless martial tendencies are curbed and terrorism brought to book, unless the bulging youth's channels are focussed on education and economy, Pak will lose the advantages mentioned by the author,.China and India , hopefully, with their economic growth will be much stronger militarily as well and Pak has to curb its tendencies to play games and concentrate on itself to achieve what the author would like Pak to achieve. Pak has to realise that it is not in the league of India anymore and should focus on its economy instead of trying to achieve military parity.
@Ali Tanoli: " ... After 1990 world is changing rapidelly and my assesment is this south asia (pakistan,india,china) will be world top economies and balance of power will come to asia once ... "
Couple of corrections - China is not in South Asia and balance of power will return to Asia because of the combination of China, India and Japan - basically a troika of Manufacturing-Services and Innovation. ( You are advised to not fantasize about the decline of the "West" - no such thing is to happen and we all need each other )
FYI - a new theory is gaining ground which says that Bangladesh is going to become the next Tiger in the region. The other South East Asian countries are pricing themselves out of the low-end manufacturing spectrum and Bangladesh with its comparatively good Human Resource policies and a seemingly non-radicalized population is well positioned to make use of this opportunity. Bangladesh's recent policy changes towards India did not go unnoticed in the world's capitals.
@Ali Tanoli: China is not in South Asia, Pakistan will not be a top economy and as for the rest of your 'story' it is completely incoherent.
Pakistan CANNOT become a major economic power while it leads the world in "Loadshedding" and "gas shedding" because of inadequate energy infastructure, and lack of government revenue because of a bogus tax system that rewards the very very rich with total exemption (agriculture sector), while the middle/lower class bear the total tax burden! This results in Pakistan having almost the lowest Tax to GDP ratio in the world, and NO MONEY to fix things ( except for the ARMY)!
The only thing holding Pakistan back are greedy, corrupt, inefficient, illiterate politicians and none else.
All these projections will be proved wrong as they are potential of our youth. 100,000s are graduating every year in multiple disciples many in engineering/medical and next 10-20 years can be total game changer.
Provided good governance and policies, we can be one of top ten economies and this is no fantasy.
One unanswered question is whether the kids learning today to ride the motorcycle are equipped, mentally tuned and are acquiring the skills in PAK schools to drive the country in 2050.
It took India and China 50 years of investment in human resources to come where they are today.
What is the depth of investment in human resources today in PAK?
no sir pakistan not will be 13 pakistan will be 21 according to Goldman Sachs and many more projection.
In a system where our ruling class educates their offsprings that is the future ruling class overseas, army officers send their kids to well run public schools and the rest 95% Pakistanis have to rot learn irrelevant material, how will we make any money in the future is beyond my understanding.
Of course Pakistan can become a major Economic Power if there is a will. Relying on the Government alone to carry it there is inadequate. The people have to yearn for change and work to turn things around. Currently the narrative being sung is that he World is out to destroy and defang the country. A large section of the population is armed and rather than wanting to change their own behaviour want to take Jihad to the World to change it. With this mindset very few International Investors are willing to commit Capital and help the country get out of the quagmire. The writer is absolutely right in saying the country is geographically blessed. If people were as bothered about issues that brought economic progress as they are by Religious rituals, the country would have been in the stratosphere by now. The country must start by breeding Love and rejecting Hate.
@Majid Urrehman..... are u for real??
What's a two wheeler bicycle? 'Bi'cycle always has two wheels.
PMLN and Nawaz Sharif can do that. They have come up with the right ingredients earlier like motorway to leverage the neighbout hood of Central Asia, China and India, Gawadar Port, and economic reforms to name a few. Their vision2010 in 1998 was another masterpiece which could have already placed us in Asian Tigers category let alone 2050. May Allah help PMLN and Nawaz Sharif's team. It is not easy for everyone to understand his politics, may Allah open the hearts and minds of people of Pakistan. Pakistan Zindabad.
talk of 2012 not 2050. Right now what common people awam are going through, the fact that 38 years on wards things might be different hardly brings any consolation.
Great insight. I hope Politicians are reading this.
After 1990 world is changing rapidelly and my assesment is this south asia (pakistan,india,china) will be world top economies and balance of power will come to asia once again after few hundred years of absents every thing else WALLAH AALAM) god know better who knew sixty years ago occupations and loots of europ will end after hitler invassion of england and france... we can predict but not for sure...