Drawn up to maintain America’s global superiority but within constraints imposed by its economic woes, the US, according to the documents, will aim to have “smaller and leaner, but agile, flexible, ready and technologically advanced” armed forces. This will ensure that the US remains focused on “defeating al Qaeda and its affiliates, deterring and defeating aggression by adversaries, countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and effectively operating in cyber space, space, and across all domains”.
As the document lists America’s goals with a broad brush, the reference to Pakistan is mercifully indirect, but its impact and effect on us will be deep and profound. In achieving many of its goals, the US will be expecting more than a helpful hand from Pakistan, especially on critical issues of fighting terrorists and ensuring compliance with non-proliferation demands. The administration remains neither convinced that Pakistan has been sincere in its war against the militants, nor trusting enough of our nuclear non-proliferation protestations.
What has, however, evoked great interest is the Strategy’s declaration that the US will “of necessity rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific region”. Leaving little to the imagination, it confirms that the primary reason is that “China’s emergence as a regional power will have the potential to affect the US economy and our security in a variety of ways”, which leads it to demand that “the growth of China’s military power must be accompanied by greater clarity of its strategic intentions”. In pursuit of its goal, the US will “emphasise existing alliances, while expanding the network of cooperation throughout the region to ensure collective capability and capacity for securing common interests”. And, as part of this effort, (in confirmation of what Secretary Clinton had stated during her last visit to India), the US “is investing in a long-term strategic partnership with India, to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region”.
Not surprisingly, Iran finds mention both in the context of Gulf security and WMD non-proliferation. US goals will be achieved “in collaboration with countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), when appropriate”, by bolstering Israel and ensuring US military presence in the region.
The Obama Administration’s strategic objectives are no different from those of its predecessors, though there are important shifts in nuances. In recognition of America’s economic woes, it will avoid a two-war situation as well as engagements that need huge forces for large-scale military operations abroad; and instead opt for ‘smaller and leaner forces’, which will depend on critical help from allies, whether it be India and Japan to counter China; or Israel and the GCC states to keep Iranian ambitions in check. This too, is an area of concern for us, as any worsening of US relations with either China or Iran will have their inevitable fall-out on Pakistan as well.
Though China figures prominently in the Strategy, its officials have refrained from public expressions of concern, preferring to let their scholars do the talking. Professor Yuan Peng of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations warns that such a strategy “could lead to a vicious circle and deepen misperceptions”, while Sun Zhe of Tsinghua University expresses fear “of an escalation of military competition and potential crisis”. On the other hand, Bonnie Glaser of the CSIS in Washington warns of “strategic rivalries”, overwhelming Sino-US cooperation.
This important document needs careful analysis for it confirms some of our fears, while providing guidance on avoiding some of the dangers. There is also a lesson for us in China’s behaviour. Instead of moaning about ‘unfriendly’ attitudes of ‘friends’, what we need is good governance at home and dispassionate analysis of what our national priorities should be.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 18th, 2012.
COMMENTS (19)
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Yuri kondratyuk, Its true and its starts from top of the world means from so called first power what u think and they forced the others to do these things and save there intrest and remembering Nomadic ancester is nothing wrong but proud for us jaye pak and jai hind.
@lubna: @Observer: "Why is that BD is unaffected but Pakistan is involved in these global games? " But you forget that ALL longitudes and ALL latitudes of our world do not crisscross Bangla Desh, they do so uniquely for Pakistan. It is right there in lubna's geography book. That is why world cannot exist without Pakistan. At least, that is what average Pakistani has been led to believe!
@Ali Tanoli:
That in fact holds true(to even greater extent) to some of the not so super and not so powerful countries too (let's call them hyper-powers). These hyper-powers which are barely capable of holding their own political/economic integrity together, worry more about their backyards, impure neighborhoods and imaginary nomadic ancestors.
Moral of the story : Don't be HYPER.
A very simple and clear article about how the geopolitics might emerge for Pakistan in the coming years.
However, The comments are quite surprising and absolutely irrelevant and so are mine because I am replying to the comments and not to the article itself. I regularly read times of India and Hindustan times as well. There are, proportionally very few comments from the non Indians on those pages. Is it fear, popularity or concern for Pakistan that there are apparently so many non Pakistanis commenting here. The objection is not to being non Pakistanis but absolute irrelevance of the comments to the subject under discussion here.
We have to be cognisant of this strategy also where our so called well wishers provide comments that generate only negativity for a netural observer.
Joint Missile Defense with India is an indication that, US is not counting on Pakistan.
@Ashvin If every one so called super powers mind there own busniss then i think gonna be peace every where.
If you think the new developments has geo- plitical implications for Pakistan.Please advice how should Pakistan respond to it ? .What options we have and what are the merits and demerits for each option. ?.
its a new world where non kinetic means have gained more significance and the effects are immense. The overt statement of policy alone can have such far reaching debates and consequences could not be imagined in the past. While soft power, cyber world and social media are essentially determinants of power potential, the importance of hard power may well remain in vogue and equally essential for power projection for political aims.
@observer Pls buy yourself a geography textbook. You will then find out why Tariq Fatemi wrote this brilliant article. Well done!
Let put things right at home first. We are not harmed by US or India or even Israel but by own people , their bad governance , corruption and their inability to deliver once required. we the pakistanis , the patriotic armed forces , the people loving politicians , the justice lving Judiciary and viewership or rating conscious media are equally responsible.
So mr Fatimi you are in fact saying that Pakistan will need to chose between friends China and Iran on one side and GCC on the other?
@Shahid:
"What Is the bottom line??? What is new in your article? How is it relevant to a common reader in Pakistan ? what can pakistan do in Big powers rivalry ?. Nothing, so instead of worrying about matters we can’t do anything about, enlighten your reader on matters which directly concerns us. "
Very good questions. The answer lies in Pakistan's bad foreign policies and its desire to punch above its weight. You must direct these good questions to the Pakistani establishment that gets Pakistan involved in global power games.
Is Bangladesh worried about all this? If not why not? Why does Pakistan have to get involved in all this and worry about it? Why is that BD is unaffected but Pakistan is involved in these global games? A sincere and honest contemplation will point fingers at Pakistan's desire to punch above its weight and its bad foreign policy choices.
AshvinnAshvinn : I disagree, Pakistan is a super power of the world.
Pakistan is a super power of Asia everyone in the world should consult Pakistan before having any policy or taking action in light of their policies
what a great article. Nice job
How about we focus on uninterrupted electricity and gas supplies to households and businesses. And if can keep trains running, even if they are behind schedule by a few hours, I'd say we'll have achieved all our goals for the next decade. Agreed?
What Is the bottom line??? What is new in your article? How is it relevant to a common reader in Pakistan ? what can pakistan do in Big powers rivalry ?. Nothing, so instead of worrying about matters we can't do anything about, enlighten your reader on matters which directly concerns us.
"Instead of moaning about ‘unfriendly’ attitudes of ‘friends’, what we need is good governance at home and dispassionate analysis of what our national priorities should be."
When will this happen?