May we live in interesting times

If Pakistan is on the brink of a new mood, both in its civilian and military relationships, here in India, the mother of all battles is underway with elections in the all-important state of Uttar Pradesh as well as Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur being announced for the end of January, and through to February 2012.

So much is at stake in the coming state elections, especially in the UP with a population of 175 million and 403 seats. The state is about the same size as Pakistan and traditionally a breeding ground for the country’s prime ministers.

Both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, apparently heirs to the Congress and Samajwadi parties respectively, have thrown their hats in this ring. Young Rahul has come a long, long way since his last UP campaign five years ago, when in his anglicised Hindi, he metaphorically beat his chest and spoke of how his ‘daadi’, Indira Gandhi, had been responsible for the break-up of Pakistan. (His audience was scandalised at the young man’s immaturity and Rahul was widely panned in the press.)

Of course, the Congress party was then soundly thrashed at the hustings for a variety of reasons (it won 22 seats). The first was that Dalit leader Mayawati had brilliantly stitched together this umbrella coalition of castes, ranging from upper-caste Brahmins to those beyond the pale. Also, the Dalits in the state, much like the rest of India, still vote along primeval caste lines.

Much has changed today, to the extent that the Samajwadi Party could even unseat Mayawati with a little bit of help from Rahul’s Congress. If that happens, the complexion of politics at the centre will change beyond belief. And this is when the story really becomes interesting.

Unfortunately, the alphabet soup of UP politics seems beyond the understanding and interest of most of Pakistan. When journalists from newspapers with unpronounceable names and languages the world over, can take crash courses in the mind-boggling permutations and combinations of Indian politics, it’s shocking that no Pakistani journalist covers India properly.

The reasons are not far to see, as a Track Two conversation between the Delhi-based Centre for Dialogue and Reconciliation and Pakistan’s Jinnah Institute, discussed recently. Both countries allows only two journalists each to live in one another’s territories and in Pakistan’s case, even those vacancies have not been filled up. Moreover, visas for journalists are more difficult than unravelling Midas’ gold.

The problem with the India-Pakistan relationship is that it is totally monochromatic. Terrorism in general and, the Mumbai attacks in particular, has scarred the Indian psyche so badly that the terror and extremism within Pakistan makes most Indians react with the equivalent of ‘serves you right’.

The fact is, we hardly know each other, nor do we look beyond the stereotype. President Asif Zardari’s tense relations with the Pakistan Army as well as Yousaf Raza Gilani being critical of the military are, therefore, extremely fascinating comments on the fast-moving situation inside Pakistan.

May you live in interesting times, goes an old Chinese proverb. The subcontinent seems chained to that statement.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 30^th, 2011.