No democracy without a sound economy

The nation needs to single-mindedly focus on driving economic development.

In my recent travels to Turkey, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand -l developing countries like Pakistan, I was amazed to see the advancement in their infrastructure, standard of living and civil discipline.

Rule of law is respected, education is on the rise and there are no issues of transportation, energy and other basic needs like health care.

However, in Pakistan’s case, things have gone from bad to worse. Inflation has remained in double digits for over an unprecedented 13 straight quarters, load-shedding is rampant, water and gas supply is erratic and on education and health we have gone totally astray.

Economic development and governance have a close relationship, which one must understand to answer the question: Does democracy create economic development or do positive economic indicators help a democracy prosper?

To answer this one needs to go back into the history and see how the majority of the current strong democracies evolved. A majority of the so-called ‘true democracies’ today are, on an average, over a century old.

Two factors play a vital role to achieve democracy, time and presence of liberal thinking and practice in the fabric of the society. Unfortunately, time is not in our favour and the latter is virtually absent.

This change towards liberal thinking can only be achieved if a nation experiences sustained long-term economic growth and expansion, which in turn helps reduce poverty, improve literacy and strengthen institutions. Hence both illiberal democracies and autocracies must single-mindedly focus on driving economic growth and not attempting to implement a ‘one man one vote’ among illiterate, disgruntled and misguided masses.

In the last three decades (1980 through 2010), Singapore and South Korea grew their gross domestic product’s (GDP) by more than 19 and 16 times respectively, while we roughly increased our GDP by a factor of only seven.

The key is economic or GDP growth, irrespective of who drives it. It could be brought on by a democratic government or an autocratic rule or even a dictatorship – whichever as long as Pakistan economy grows double digit for the next two to three decades.

Always remember that the masses are not impacted as much by the type of regime governing them but by how well the economy has fared. With sustained economic growth, chances of having a true democracy taking shape in Pakistan, sometime in the future, can become a distinct possibility and a realistic goal.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 26^th, 2011.