Running with the hare

US has started seeing Pakistan as an enemy & is engaging with it while still keeping up the facade of being an ally.

The proverb is ‘running with the hare and hunting with the hounds’ and I use it to describe Pakistan’s policy of officially being an ally of the United States in the ‘War on Terror’, while in reality being partially in alliance and partially in opposition to the aims of the US. This lack of transparency is because Pakistan feels that the United States will withdraw from Afghanistan and the Taliban will eventually take over from the puppet regime of Hamid Karzai. If, therefore, Pakistan has no friends among the Taliban the Indians will come to dominate Afghanistan and Pakistan will have to defend two borders which, given the economic resources of the country, is difficult. Of course, the decision makers of Pakistan in matters strategic, who are military personnel, do realise that by not weakening the Taliban to the point of extinction, Pakistan will lose full control over Fata and consign the people of that area to the harshness of militant rule. Also, it will increase the influence of the militant version of Islam in the cities. But, out of the two evils — Indian aggression and Taliban influence — the decision makers choose the latter. This, in a nutshell, is the thinking which has led to the policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. But is the US also beginning to follow a similar policy? That is the theme of this article.

It does not otherwise make strategic sense for the American military high command to attack a small undefended checkpost of its ally in order to punish it for such a policy. After all, the Americans know that Pakistan is passing through a highly anti-American phase of its existence. It needs the route through Pakistan to supply necessities to the Nato/Isaf troops and the air bases to combat and eliminate militant commanders. They also have seen the fallout of the Raymond Davis affair when they had to climb down and listen to the ISI before their man was released.

So, if they attacked a Pakistani post why did they do it? Air Vice-Marshal Shahzad Chaudhary wrote in his article “Other side of Salala” on these pages (on December 5) that the Nato/Isaf ground patrol was fired upon from the Pakistani side and it asked for air support which targeted the post. But, the Pakistan Army tells us that the aircraft went back after being informed that there were Pakistani troops below and then returned to continue the attack with savage force, with the intention to cause death and injury. This is what defies the logic of war as well as the norms governing the alliance. Or is America also practicing, at least for now, the policy of hunting with the hounds while pretending to run with the hare? This means that the US has started to see Pakistan as an enemy and is beginning to engage with it while still keeping up the facade of being an ally?

This may not be the policy at the highest official level but, it is possible that the on-the-spot middle-level officers are so angry and frustrated at the possibility of losing this war and going back to the Vietnam Syndrome that they have started rogue operations of their own. After all, this is what happened in Vietnam where the French commandos in Algeria carried out heinous war crimes on their own without waiting for orders from the top. Indeed, at least some of the guerrilla operations from Pakistan in support of some militant groups owe their origin not to official support of serving officers but the rage and frustration of retired ones. So this is a possibility. But what defies logic is why the US government does not apologise in so many words and in as sincere a fashion as governments can? There is the admission of culpability and even sorrow for the tragedy. The US Ambassador Cameron Munter, being a decent man himself, has gone further in expressing his dismay and grieving for the human loss, but no official apology has yet been given. Of course, apologies cannot bring the dead young men to life but they can assuage hurt national pride and pave the way for further confidence-building measures. Yet, this has not happened and the excuse is that the results of the inquiry are still awaited.

This ‘hunting with the hounds’ is a middle-level practice (policy might not be the word for it) to punish Pakistan irrespective of the damage it will cause even to their own troops in Afghanistan. If this is not to morph into a policy, the United States should take action now against the offenders and abandon all plans of staying on in Afghanistan after 2014. Indeed, it would be wise to move that date backwards so that the Vietnam Syndrome should not settle in and cause further frustration in American local commanders causing further such incidents. The war in Afghanistan has been lost by the US and the earlier this is realised, the better it is for all parties. Indeed, it is uncanny to feel that when I, and some others, had warned against the attack on Afghanistan and then Iraq they were dismissed as pessimists and dreamers of peace. Yet, the dreamers proved to be right, after all, while the practical men of the world proved to be wrong.

While America withdraws, it is in Pakistan’s interest to make lasting peace with India by settling the Kashmir issue and other disputes peacefully. This will make the present policy of nourishing militants unnecessary. It is also in India’s interests to settle these disputes with Pakistan and leave Afghanistan (be it only development as is claimed), as its presence generates fears of encirclement in its neighbour. For India is likely to be harmed beyond calculation, as is Pakistan, by both overt and covert conflict with its neigbour. The energies and money this will release for both countries should be so much as to make their people live a better future than they have had so far thanks to perpetual arms races and wars. This is time to give up all covert game plans for America, India, Pakistan and their neighbours and concentrate on the business of living.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 8^th, 2011.