Change is one of the natural laws of politics but, like other laws of nature, there is nothing definite about it; its path, timing and scale are unpredictable. Political change, however, doesn’t come from the sky, or out of the blue, catching contestants in power plays, as in our society or even in the more stable, peaceful, democratic industrial societies.
In this respect, there have always been two camps; one with the status quo and the other that would like to change the ways of power, governance and groups that control power in society. Those associated with power in Pakistan, directly through public offices or, indirectly through bribes and patronage, argue that nothing will change in the land of the pure. In times of visible signs of change at the grassroots level, this pessimistic tone is deliberate, conscious and targeted towards defending the power of the major political parties. However, in regular times of stagnation and domination of traditional power cliques, this pessimism would not be out of place.
One thing that observers and analysts of Pakistani politics shouldn’t miss is that the country’s political scene is fast changing at a popular level. In my humble estimation, the popular base is fast slipping away from the two major political parties — the PPP and the PML-N. I am sure this view will be contested, and let it be, using the Marxian phrase: no one can hold back the wheel of history. In our case, it is turning faster than we expected — against the interests and desires of the two major parties.
What has caused the political wheel of Pakistan’s history to turn with such speed? Is it the absolute distrust of the leadership of the two major parties — one has declined to the lowest limit and the other is not where it expected itself to be, sliding down with every swing of the kaptaan — Imran Khan. Let us not talk about the Lahore rally and how it raised the hopes of the Pakistani nation and demystified the domination of the PML-N. For this party, in my view, that proved to be the beginning of its end, loss of self-confidence in its popular support and loss of hope in its future prospects among a good number of political families and figures with individual support in Punjab.
Let me confine myself to two signs of the beginning of great change in Pakistani politics. First is the Pakistani youth embracing the kaptaan as their leader to take Pakistan away from the dynastic party leaders. Pakistani youth today are very different from the youth of my generation that took to the streets against Ayub Khan. They are articulate and have better critical thinking skills. More importantly, they are becoming active in an age of dense social webs, mass communication and universal reach of electronic media. No other leader or party can claim such a popular appeal among Pakistani youth.
The second important sign of change is the urbanisation of the Pakistani village. This is a phenomenon that I have observed very closely in various parts of the country, more in Punjab than in other places. It is not just the spread of facilities but the popular aspirations for a better life, better education, better society and better governance that connect the rural population with the urban population.
These changes will make the next elections transformative, critical and catapult a new party, a new leader into the spotlight. Guess who that could be?
Published in The Express Tribune, November 27th, 2011.
COMMENTS (44)
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ
I agree with RBR. It's the time of change in a real sense. PTI is the only party which is open to all in its every aspect. We've been betrayed by all other political parties of Pakistan. We shouldn't give another chance to any of them because they'll do again, what they've already done. We should, now, give the chance to PTI because it's a democracy. May ALLAH bless our homeland.
Simply brilliant
@Amjad Cheema: Do you think that Aabpara industry have entered into the hearts and brains of Pakistani youth? Don't you think that worst performance of both PPP and PML-N has left the people with no choice but to look towards Imran with hope?
@abubakar: Faiz Tamman and Mian Azhar have been part of PML-N in the past.If,somehow, I agree to your point that PML-N brought change in Pakistan, then it is clear that these two politicians were not able to hinder the so-called change which Nawaz Sharif was able to bring.If it is true, then these two people would not be able to stop Imran Khan to bring change in the country.After all, Imran Khan is more educated and genius than Nawaz Sharif.
Your predictions could well come to pass. My concern is that the new person and his party do not have the intellectual grasp and understanding of the issues which is necessary to implement change.
Secondly, and just as important, the new person has no experince in and exposure to the workings of government at any level. They are in for a rude shock.
It is not the army or the politicians that are all-powerful in Pakistan. That is a myth. It is the bureaucracy. Without them and their support, you can do nothing.
Rest assure,we will always be there to support you only for Pakistan.The entire youth will be supporting all positive,progressive and secular mind people.
Yes, RBR, should do join PTI for the betterment of the people. Wishing for success in all endeavors.
Professor Rasul, I know you for the last many years. I have seen your writings depicts the true sentiments of all Pakistani.I am sure Qureshi will be joining Imran Khan and then nobody can stop PTI to come in power.The next Pakistani leadership will be fresh,sincere,and committed with Pakistan. By the way,Dr sahib, you should aslo join this Party e.g.PTI.
Since 1970 we have listened many slogans. In fact they are making the innocent people fool. These are gimmicks of politicians to attract the voters. Shah Mahmood Qureshi as expected joined PTI. wHERE IS IK's mentor Haroon Rashid who made SMQ family " Pithoo" of English Sarkar. These politicians can make alliance with Satan for power. At least I do not see any change.
Agree, it is time for change.
It is time for decisive civilian supremacy over the Khaki.
Question is. 'Can Imran deliver it? Will Imran deliver it?'
In my opinion- NO,
@Mirza: His primary source of income is cricket commentaries. Secondly, as far as him being the sole person running the show...there are times when a leader should stay at the helm and there is a time towards the end of S-curve when he should step down...I am sure that time for that has not come yet...furthermore, going by that logic, NS has been the longest party chairman of PML-N...its about time he makes room for more able men like Sartaj Aziz.
@Nadeem: well said bro...
PTI is a face for forces of darkness in Pakistan. Pakistan is in problem because of establishment's dirty games. I donot know why so-called educated youth can not see and read the establishment's script ... controlling imran khan. There will be no change even if imran khan win 300 seats in next elections.
Immnesely important and excellent article. Weldone dear Rasul.
After reading this artical we can only pray and can have hopes for the future.
Good article by Rasul Bakhsh.
I totally agree with you sir. The nation has pinned hopes on the next general elections.
I totally agree with the arguments of the writer regarding the transformation of the village, espcially in Punjab, with regard to how it ties itself into the emerging dynamics of Pakistani politics. I come from a small village of Minchanabad in Bahawalnagar district. About 100 plus youngsters, including me, in my village of 1000 odd inhabitants are purusing higher education in colleges and universities in major cities, and they are progresively influenced by the change factor in our politics. These youngsters are not mere young folks fired by imagination but are actually agents of change with considerable influence within their immediate families and neighbourhoods within the village. Let me endorse the thesis put forward by the writer that this time around villages, in Punjab at least, are not going to lag far behind the cities in terms of the results they produce in welcoming the change the writer is talking about.
How can Iftikhar C or Imran Khan make a revolutionary change when all the power lies with the army and ISI? What an paradox talking about a civilian revolution with such a powerful army? In addition, how long has it been that Imran Khan is the chief of PTI? Like all other party leaders he is a lifelong chief and kaptan! In addition, I would honestly like to know (no hate please) what has been Imran Khan's source of income in the last 2 decades? Or is he always on the other people's money?
As Ayaz Amir says 'nothing will change until the army changes its mindset'. We have been in the army's clutches for 53 years and at least 80% of our miseries today are the direct consequence of this fact. Imran Khan is being too clever by half when he thinks he can skirt around the elephant in the room and bring substantive change in Pakistan. Cosmetic change, yes. Substantive change? No way, until civilian institutions become supreme and military becomes subservient to these institutions just like all armies of major world powers: USA, UK, France, China, Germany, Japan, India, Canada, Australia.........
I am not so sure about better critical skills. They seem pretty blinded by Imran. The question is if Imran is recycling turncoats how is this a move away from dynastic politics?
well written, I will translate it into urdu & brng its urdu version so that everyone can understand these golden words by Professor sb.
Dr Sahib, Please do not be so impressive by the Kaptan's slogans. Look at his preferences,the old people are being contacted.What the difference you are expecting from him? Your focus should be as a political scientists "voting behavior" electoral process,which is immensely important in Pakistan.The law of politics in Pakistan can only be replaced ( present statusquo),through transparent and fair ballot. How would Imran Khan control corrupt senior bureaucracy?Would he be able to accountable all of them?
No doubt the change has come......i mean the change in thinking.........we the youth who never even likr to talk about the politics are all the day searching for any political development.......and for sure no one can snatch this credit from one and only Kaptaan.......just forget who is joining him or how he will rule....the thing is he give u a sense of our value...sense of our importance in national politics........he make the other leaders to follow him in politics......and i like this trend...which will realy make the country having a great pool of political youth.......he make the PML-N to follow his trends in Social media..in Jalsa......its a sign of acceptance.......and i like this PML-N is using this...they would be able to educate their supporters as well.
Dear Rasul: Please do write on that to whom people should vote.?Only, leadership does not matter.
How to achieve the change, with the current system of election? I refer to an article that is published in another english newspaper that talks that change is not possible if the system is not changed to proportional representation. How to make the status quo camp to accept proportional representation? Should Imran Khan and small parties go for an intensive campaign for it?
Very good piece: This is true youth seems enthusiastic.Pakistan needs to promote constituency politics if we need good governace in future.Unfortunatly, the person who is elected just for the : Party LEADR" has never been able to ha ve contact with the people in his life,he he never done his impressive serivices.Then, how can you say that the new leadership Imran can bring change? Law of nature and law of politics are two diferent things. Professor, law of nature cannot be chnaged,its invisible,we call it God's,all religion have different NATURAL LAWAS .Deviator of this law,we believe will be punished after world.God will not forgive that person unless he is forbidden by the person who has been hurted by the culprit in the world. Law in politics are being changed overnight just for the political or personal interets.Violator/s are punished by the courts.
Simply Great!!!!
this baloon inflated by aabpara industry will burst to the astonishment of these pseudo intelectuals.
I don't know, its change or something else, but situation is worsening. Also I don't agree that large number of villagers are moving into cities. Its very expensive to afford a proper city life. Infact cities are growing rapidly from inside out and eating away all the villages around them. The villagers who had agriculture land closer to cities have suddenly emerged as rich Paindo class. They bought big houses, new cars and admitted their kids into English medium schools. In my humble opinion, many of them have already ruined their lives and have no place to hide. Rest of the rural classes are still the same. There is no positive change in their lives. There is so much poverty and violance in rural Pakistan, that at decisive time, they voting pattern won't change.
Imran Khan has given a new hope to the nation. Mostely educated people run away from the country but don't try to change the politics in the country. Imran Khan has been fighting against these politicians for years. Thanks God we have started realising that only changing the system and saying good buy to old parties can save Pakistan.
Welcome to generation I-Imran Yes to I-Imran
well said............bye bye conventional orthodox idiotic politicians, ur no more required, IMRAN KHAN ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!!
Yes, it is time to change America. We are not responsible for the world for each nation has its own leader and we should respect it. We certainly would not tolerate another nation to come to tell us what to do right here in our soil, right?
If a nation needs help, then, yes we can be in solidarity and extend our help, but not get our noses where nobody has called us. Intrusion is not of the civilized world. If America proclaims to be a defender of the human rights of the world, it needs to stop intruding in somebody else businesses The world will start noticing and will respect and trust us.
We all are humans, make mistakes, but if we want to be our brother's keeper, help the way the brother needs to be helped.
In order to show leadership to the world we must vote with our reason, not with emotions, for emotions go up and down like a yo-yo. Vote intelligently, vote for an educated foreign policy that will help the world and America.
We will be committing a worst mistake if IK's is taken as a literal symbol of change. Change from Mian Azhar, Faiz tummun are quite evident.
We need to go back to history and find out who really have delivered for this nation and It will be absolutely right if I say its PMLN. Getting 2 tenures of 2 years each, their achievements in the form of motorway, nuclear test, economic reforms, agricultural reforms, normalizing relations with india etc. are quite evident.
Lets work for real change in policies and struggle for true democracy ...
Spot on Sir
I belong to small village in South Punjab near Muzaffargarh and even there people have started talking about Imran Khan. This is the ultimate proof for me that some of our arm chair analysts will be as shocked and surprised after the next general elections as they were after the Lahore Rally.
Respected Sir you say about the Pakistani youth of today that: "They are articulate and have better critical thinking skills. More importantly, they are becoming active in an age of dense social webs, mass communication and universal reach of electronic media. No other leader or party can claim such a popular appeal among Pakistani youth." Both those points are contentious. Firstly as a part of this youth I gave seen first hand how short sighted and myopic they can be. Our world view is static and fixed, with little knowledge of international politics and even lesser knowledge of the follies that uncontrolled nationalism can bring. Furthermore, the youth of today is informed by a myriad of conspiracy theories which shape their world view hence their political understanding leaves much to be desired. Secondly, the youth of Pakistan constitutes more than just the urban middle class. Imran Khan's politics seem to offer little to the rural masses. Without offering any real positive fiscal measures or policies, Imran Khan's politics is much less appealing to the rural masses than the corrupt yet influence laden politics of the feudals as it exists today.
Your comment They are articulate and have better critical thinking skills. made me change my sitting position uncomfortably. Either the generation before this one was more uncritical than I have thought, or you have confused a non-existent generation and called it "this generation". They may be articulate, or anything but not even close to critical thinkers. They are logically challenged. Just look at their reasoning more neutrally, they depress me with their fallacy ridden opinions.
Time for another revolution has arrived, time for PTI has come, time for Guinness Book to update its World Revolutions Chapter. Youth of Pakistan will write a new chapter in the history of the world.
With 50% of Pakistan's population under 20 years of age, it is not all that surprising that a youth revolution is on the cards. With increased mass communication and heightened media coverage the coming generations have different aspirations to their preceding ones and it is clear that they will not be as accepting of status quo as readily as their elders did.
Do they have the registered votes? The answer to that only NADRA knows, but it is certain that now or very soon they will have the electoral clout, especially in the urban areas, to make their impact known.
The existing power elite appear to be unaware of this shift in demographic momentum cocooned as they are in their make belief worlds.
Will it be a change for the better? Most probably but some limitations will continue. Most of the youth pine for greater prosperity but the power of conservative religiosity and lack of open mindedness (e.g. witness the vitriolic abuse hurled at Imran Khan's naysayers) may lead us to an unexpected direction.
Thank you Rais Sahab for voicing the opinion of the majority of the Pakistanis. Clearly, the tide of public opinion is turning in favour of CHANGE and the only party that represents that is PTI at this time. According to Imran Khan himself, the youth of Pakistan is not deciding, but has already DECIDED to vote for PTI. And this single fact is enough to catapult PTI into power.
the only positive point in IK is that he is bringing apolitical educated youth around him and that will help Pakistan in a unique way. Post-modern political scientists had warned against the youth bulge in post-colonial states. The real threat for the status quo is from politically-consicous youth and status quo can go on for eons with the help of apolitical youth. If this youth becomes politically-conscious and in tune with true history of Sub-continent, the first victim must be the military rule and miltant mindset. The equation will be leaning towards civil in civil-military equation. Since our youth is indoctrinated with false history and this fact makes them foot soldiers of military and fundamentalism. If it were no IK then this youth, wrongly, would be unleashed on established political parties. I for myself see a silver lining in IK being the Pied Piper for this youth and this apolitical youth cannot win him elections. One day, rather soon, this youth will see through the charade and by then the true political parties should have established credentials to woo back the mature ones. babyboomers have experienced it some decades ago.
@author: I was telling somebody yesterday that I would place any day more money on a professor's insight than a political analyst's prediction....simply because they are more rational , neutral, and research oriented. Thanks for putting this together. We are confident that Pakistan's youth will be able to re-build this nation.
We can called this generation a I-GEN closer to ipad and supporters of Imran an I-Imran.