Violence in Kashmir, again

The parts of Jammu and Kashmir that do not vote are in revolt again. These include the Maisuma neighbourhood of Srinagar, where Mirwaiz Umar Farooq lives, and Sopore, home to Jamaat-i-Islami’s Syed Geelani. The two men, once together but no more, are the most influential of the separatists, with Mirwaiz having the larger following because of his traditional seat. The neighbourhoods the men control register less than five per cent turnout in the elections and so the simmer has always been there. The violence this time was over a young man killed after a tear gas shell cracked his skull open, bringing out protesters. They were fired upon and the ensuing deaths kept the violence going for days. It has now stopped because the army has enforced peace, and the boil has returned to the simmer. This simmer is unlikely to cool, because the protests were not really about the current violence but about something else. India has not been able to bring the Hurriyat Conference and its supporters to electoral politics in the way it has other sceptical Kashmiris, like Abdul Lone’s son Sajjad.

Syed Geelani contested elections decades ago and Mirwaiz Umar’s father ran the Muslim Conference so both men are politicians, but since the separatist movement began in 1989 they have neither voted nor contested.

Jammu and Kashmir’s people can be seen in this way: Jammu and Ladakh are unionist (because of their mainly Hindu and Buddhist populations), while Kashmir is divided. There are separatists, unionists and those who are discontent but want to participate in electoral politics.

That the Hurriyat represents the sentiment of many is shown by the reaction of the opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohammed Saeed. As home minister of India in VP Singh's government 20 years ago, Mufti Saeed released militants from jail in exchange for his kidnapped daughter, Rubaiyya. Now another daughter, Mehbooba, Mufti Saeed’s heir, is fighting for those militants. The PDP has refused to attend a meeting of political parties to resolve the current crisis. Mehbooba says the matter cannot be solved by merely calming things down. But in saying this she is actually making a political move, not being obstinate.

Elections for Kashmir’s Assembly are now no longer as unviable as they were a decade or so ago. However, the separatists are showing that while they cannot hold up elections, they can sabotage governance. And that worries Kashmir’s parties. The two primary parties of Kashmir are PDP and the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s National Conference, which has the vote of Srinagar’s non-Hurriyat population and rural orchard owners.

Mehbooba’s party is essentially rural, and this means it needs the urban vote of the Hurriyat Conference’s leaders who are based in Jammu and Kashmir’s (mainly Kashmir’s) towns. Mehbooba has been in government with the Congress party before, serving as deputy chief minister. So she does not have much of an ideological problem with the unionists. But she believes it makes sense for her to continue within electoral politics while also fish in the separatist waters for support. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh personally asked her to help in calming things down, but for now she has refused. She is relevant on this count only to the extent that she stands in for the Hurriyat and their supporters, who at some point must be compromised with to cool the simmer.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 14^th, 2010.