Dengue dichotomy: Recent showers leave experts divided

Meteorologists say temperature drop will hamper threat.

ISLAMABAD: The debate over the dengue threat, after the recent showers in the twin cities, has the experts divided. Officials of Metrology department claim a reduction in temperatures would limit dengue’s activities while epidemiologists fear a massive outbreak and urge for timely interventions to help control the situation.

Director General (DG) Met office Arif Mehmood said that the rain has temperatures from above 30 Celsius to 25-28 Celsius. “This fall in the temperature will hamper the mosquitoes,” he said.

However epidemiologists, vector experts and entomologists disagree. For them, the rainfall brings with it better opportunities for mosquitoes to breed.

The ideal temperature for mosquitoes to breed is between 25 and 27 Celsius.

Dr Anwar Rafay, a senior epidemiologist, said, “The dengue season started earlier this year, as it normally starts from October and continues till December; November will be its peak season.”

Dr Muhammad Saleem Rana, vector control expert and Associate Professor at Health Services Academy, said that mosquitoes can breed comfortably till the temperature drops to 16 Celsius; therefore it is a misconception that the fall in the temperature after the Thursday rain will affect their activities.

“The actual breeding season of the mosquito starts from October and the rain will only worsen the situation. Lack of timely intervention will be disastrous,” he said.

Deputy Medical Superintendent Holy Family Hospital Dr Javed Hayat said that it was difficult to ascertain the frequency of the affected people, but 30-55 patients are admitted to the hospital daily.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 10^th, 2011.