WASHINGTON:
As the ink dries on the strategic partnership alliance signed by Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the focus has shifted to what role India can play in Afghanistan in the days to come.
The new alliance comes as Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States trade barbs over Islamabad’s alleged support of the Haqqani network, while doubts persist about what role the US and Pakistan will play in the reconciliation process in Afghanistan.
(Read: When Karzai comes to Delhi)
Moeed Yusuf, the South Asia Adviser at the United States Institute of Peace, says that President Karzai reaching out to India may lead to a paradigm shift. “Perhaps Karzai has given up on Pakistan.” In the face of such moves, says Yusuf, “Pakistan isn’t going to sit by quietly, because of the India-Pakistan relationship.”
Sadanand Dhume, a columnist for the Wall Street Journal and research fellow at conservative think-tank American Enterprise Institute, says, “It would be naïve to suggest that there’s nothing political. The method that’s been used [by India] has been development but politics matters. India has a stake in Afghanistan; it has a stake in Afghanistan’s stability and it not turning into a terrorist sanctuary.”
Although, given the current state of US-Pakistan relations, the question surfaces whether the US is using India as leverage, and whether it can ditch Pakistan and partner with India to play a role in Afghanistan’s future.
(Read: Repudiating realpolitik - A 21st century Great Game is a foolish idea says US scholar)
Shamila Chaudhary, a former director of the White House National Security Council on Pakistan and Afghanistan and now an analyst at the Eurasia Group, says, “Pakistan’s bad behaviour, in the eyes of the US and Afghanistan, is going to push these countries to India because of India’s role as an emerging power and its diplomatic and development presence in Afghanistan. It’s the most likely actor to kind of take over as the US withdraws troops. Obviously, this is of great concern to Pakistan.”
Chaudhary says that while India’s presence in the country is largely seen as positive, one needs to remember that Afghanistan’s security cannot be outsourced to India. “One has to be careful on how India’s future role is encouraged in the region. It probably has more of a destabilising effect than a stabilising one.”
And what does Karzai want? Analysts believe that allegations over the Haqqani network have made it impossible for the Afghan president to actively support Pakistan. However, Karzai may have gone too far, cautions Yusuf. “I think, looking ahead, Karzai will have to reconnect with Pakistan. He’ll shift back to the middle because he also realises that he can’t alienate Pakistan.”
(Read: Which road to take?)
Experts believe that Pakistan has genuine concerns about India’s growing influence in Afghanistan. Dhume adds, “The million-dollar question is what exactly Pakistan wants in Afghanistan? If Pakistan wants a veto in Afghanistan, if it wants to be able to tell the Afghan government, ‘this is who you can be friends with, this is who you can’t be friends with’, effectively treating Afghanistan as an extension of Pakistan, that’s going to be a problem and there’s going to be huge pushback.”
“At this juncture, the visit will cause great heartburn in Islamabad,” said Saeed Naqvi, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think-tank in New Delhi. “That is unfortunate from the Indian perspective because anything achieved in the visit will be seen by Pakistan as an insult.”
Published in The Express Tribune, October 5th, 2011.
COMMENTS (66)
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Interesting first Pakistan drives US into Indian arms and now Afghanistan. The recent strategic agreement was a proposal drawn up six years ago but was not signed due to Pakistan's sensitivities in this matter. With Pakistan's now-overt support of the Hakkanis, cross border shelling into Afghanistan and the alleged role in Rabbani's killing....Pakistan signed the Indo-Afghan strategic agreement with its own hand.
@Babloo: Pakistan has already given that right to export to India. but In the future we will revoke it because it leads to alot of smuggling Pakistan has given aid. But Pakistan will not be bullied Just because India is Richer. Nor will it allow Indian Hegemony in the region
We will also ban air flight to india going over pakistan
@geeko Which means today's India is indebted to today's Pakistan. And that one of the reasons why Pakistan is acting crazy is because we have never recognized their efforts.
How is that different from the Pakistani Navy sending it's ships out to sea because they were afraid of an attack in Karachi?
pakistani establishment with its single minded focus(and one must appreciate such a single minded focus) to achieve strategic depth in Afghanistan since 1971 debacle didnt even realised that for almost for four decades pakistan had become strategic depth for afghanistan rather than afghanistan becoming one for pakistan , right across east of indus knocking doors in the ranjeet singh's capital, towards 30 km west of wagha, whenever they wised with a big bang.
@rizwan: Right, that is typical paki mentality, instead of fixing your own problems, lets make problems for others. What else can be expected from a madrassa trained nation!! now even afghan is openly challenging pakis and signing partnership with India. Afterall, who would side with an isolated beggar nation ??? better to be friendly with a growing preogressive well respected country, right???
@Bangladeshi:
"It will take us decades to undo the damage India has done to us over the last 5 years"
and centuries for what India did to you in 1971. My sympathies are with you!!
@ Bangladeshi - if the Awami League is Indian and doesn't serve Bangladeshi interests, why did the Bangladeshi people elect them in an overwhelming majority? Why is Sheikh Hussina's approval rating so high? For a Bangladeshi you seem to have less factual knowledge about your own country than this Pakistani has about it.
@Bangladeshi Why would India seek to be allies with its immediate neighbors each of which is a failed state? In case you haven't noticed, India has become global player. As such we have no time to waste with failed states who do not wish to engage with India on her own terms.
@Doctor If it were up to Bangladeshi, the world should rollback to the glorious days of trade on camel backs. That is indeed the time warp Muslims live in anyway.
@Bangladeshi
From your comments it is obvious that you're a BNP supporter.
Stop showing your party's propaganda as "facts".
@ Bangladeshi - you are somewhat dense. How can the US and Pakistan trade if they don't share a border? It's called shipping. It's called air cargo. Grow a brain please. Your comments on every article border on racist and hateful.
@Bangladesh:Rajendra Kalkhandehas answered your question. Please update your knowledge objectively.
pakistan - you have no idea what india has in store for you :-) but guess what it will be beneficial for the common pakistani in the long run !!
In a round about way karzai has said what the main issue is ....... he said pakistan is a twin brother and india a friend !!! ....... the same language is used by other countries in the neighbourhood all refer to pakistan and pakistan with them as brothers be that afghanistan, iran, turkey, UAE, saudi, tajikistan, etc ......... thats because we have alot in common - language, alphabet, racially, ethinically, physically, religously, historically, etc .......... no one i know from these countries refer to the indians as brothers ......... so please stop the rubbish about pak and indians have something in common - there is just dislike from pak to the indians - going back in time and saying all that blah blah about afghan all hindu sanskrit etc is just baloney - go back far enough then we were all cave men !!! ....... anyway yes indians do have brothers they are the sri lankans, bungladeshis, nepalese, burmese, anywhere eastwards cos they all have the same features, colour, race, language sanskrity, writing, religion, origins etc .......... so stay out of our backyard and we will stay out of your backyard indians - banglades was never part of pakistan from the day of independence - good riddence and a headache off pak - so dont compare the give away of that swamp as a loss for pak - we want kashmir and like mullen says all the problems will disappear ............ eventually !
@Javed: I presume you're saying that Pakistan has been "brotherly" towards Afghanistan? Yeah, right. If it wasn't for your "agencies", Afghans would have been on their feet a long time back. Who are the hypocrites?
We Indians need to protect our puppet 'Karzai' in Afghanistan; a friend in need is a friend indeed; we need to send indian army to protect afghan civilians and fight against the taliban menace; we should open our borders for millions of afghans and provide them sanctuary in India; we talk too much, now its time to put our words into action; Only India has the army, the money and guts to secure afghanistan its a strategic backyard and it will help us economically
Pakistan should seal its border with Afghanistan. No more transit trade through us. They shud fight their own war. For how long Pakistan should act like "baigaanoun ki shaadi mein abdullah dewana"?
People are talking about AF-India trade relations but how can afghanistan do trade with a country with which it doesn't have any borders. Just look at the map & you would see why afgahnistan just can't devolop without PAK. They are totally dependent on PAK unless US staunch enemy Iran cozy's up to karzai which we know will never happen. Karzai's reign is just within Kabul & that too with US help. He is a puppet who does't represent the afgan people. This is a bad decision by India. To have everlasting strategic relations with any country you must have relations with those that represent the people of that country not some puppet who's days are numbered.
I just want to ask one thing .What are the stakes of India in Afghanistan ? Is India only want to interfere to give pressure Pakistan? why india every time active when the matter is of Pakistan .
Karzai's visit to India shows one thing. Not a single comment of the Afghans being our Muslim brothers which we have been harping for more than 10 years now. There are so many comments about throwing out 3 million ungrateful Afghan refugees out of Pakistan. 3 million deleted from the utopian Ummah in one stroke. How fickle.........
@Parvez+Mahmud: Your comment makes an interesting viewpoint and food for thought. The Americans' Blackwill Plan is a sinister move at strategic division to gain a permanent foothold in Central Asia and the Kabul-New Delhi Agreement is a reflection of that.
Nobody rules forever is something the Americans must realize. Salams
1947 resolution by UN is the main concern. If India can ignore the whole for self determination rights for Kashmiris then Pakistan should not have any respect for its foe who is purely entering Afghanistan to destabilizing Pakistan to aid anti-Pakistan movements. Then why people are so much concerned about India which is abusing human rights more than in the world history. 16000 christians, 62000 Sikhs, 110,000 muslim and 54000 shoodars. Creating unrest in Nepal, Sri Lanka, PakistanN China and now Afghanistan. But one thing we appreciate India always goes for and by Evil force. Good luck india
India may be asked to take control of security of Afghanistan by Karzai when ISAF and NATO vacate in 2014.People are waiting to welcome Indian Army in Afghanistan specially Pashtuns to garland them". Please send your troops under the strategic agreement to ensure Hamid Karzai and Northern Alliance government does not fall
Sounds Fishy . . . .possible plan to destabalise Pakistan. Karzai was never loyal to even his own people. He let so many Afghans continue to. die like flies. He is a bought puppet. Pakistan feels compassionate towards its Afghan brothers and their sufferings no matter what Karzai does!! May God Bless Pak-Afghan!!
Well Afghanistan does not have a choice being a land locked country and all economic activities happening through Karachi port. US cannot pressurize PK as both are dependent on each other. These are just pressure tactics for PK to give in some stakes that they have viz a viz 'friendly Af' and last but not the least, i can tell you this now that those Talibans with the same US funded equipment and money flowing from KSA and other ME countries and with the zeal of Jihad will be much more effective than the Af. army and police trained in India and this will be proved on ground.
Another Achievement of Indian conspiracy
Indians will learn very soon how treacherous and backstabbing the Afghans are! lol - good luck! And please take the ungrateful remaining 1.7 million afghan refugees still sitting in Pak off our hands too PLEASE!
@Lee P Trust me even if we are at the brink we have alot less to lose than India, why because we are already a mess and it cant get any worse. In any case, just like Hamid karzai was not of any use for US, it wont be any better than India, infact worse. Afghanistan is like a blackhole - friend or enemy - once you get sucked in, there is noway you can get out in good shape. Pak and US are case in point.
@Fareedi: Pakistan is on suicidal path. India not by even firing a bullet, bleeding Pakistan by giving thousand cuts.
We are royally screwed.
With this pact america trying to teach Pakistan that without america Pakistan get nothing in Afghanistan.
@Roflcopter: There are two contenders for whom "the days may be numbered". Lets see whose number comes up first. Personally, I think there's only one party who is on the brink.
Assalam-o-Allaikum Warahmatullah.This deal between India and Afghanistan don't have to afraid Pakistan because Afghanistan is depending upon USA now-a-days completely and after withdrawal of US' and NATO troops Afghanistan shall be under the complete regime and supremacy of Taliban/Alqaeda and they are against the India and USA and Indian and US troops are definitely afraid of handful Taliban/Alqaeda personnels this is why USA is facing the most worst defeat in Afghanistan.And if Afghan president thinks that after withdrawal the US' and NATO troops India shall prove Afghanistan's true friend than Afghan president is living in fool's paradise.So this deal is nothing in reality but only shows the shallow love between India and Afghanistan.Just wait and see that how long India shows friendship with Afghanistan?
One can understand the problems of trained and sponsored "Parrot" of Afghanistan but why India is falling in this trap??? A recent visit by our FM and Mr. Makhdoom Ameen Fahim was seen and observed as sensible but now one can easily say that "Daal mein kuch Kala Hy".
Wow, India investing in the same golden goose that US has been investing in for 10 years, . Excellence choice India, who needs enemies like Pakistan, when you have a friend like Hamid Karzai - a man who so utterly inept and corrupt, that he and not Taliban are the reason that US has lost out so badly not just militarily but also their image in the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. I guess the Indians are next now, haha.
It seems Pakistanis have forgotten the 14 Hour Power cuts, no water supply, life in tents. Irrespective of their ability to remember they should not overlook that when they threaten afghanistan, they put the survival and the entire concept of Pakistan at stake. I can understand not many Pakistanis alive today must have seen 1971, and given the lack of education, not many would even have read about it, but it is in their own interests to read up history and understand the consequences of threatening a people.
If Bangladesh sitting 1000's of miles away was able to deliver a knockout blow, just imagine what afghanistan; which has the experience of dealing with the only 2 super powers that have existed on planet earth - Russia and America, will do.
Good luck Pakistan, You will need lots of it to keep Pakistan together.
Of course the relationship between India and Afghanistan go back a 5000 years. Long before there was entity called Pakistan. The name afgahnistan is itself from ancient Sanskrit "upganastan" and the ancient place names are all sanskrit origin (like Kandahar from gandhara, the ancient birthplace of the Mahabharata heroine gandhari). And afghani culture was predominantly Indian and their religion was Hinduism and Buddhism in preislamic times.
So, it is just old blood brothers making renewing their relationship. So, need for pakistanis to worry about it.
Behrooz
Where is Digvijay Singh with his gems of wisdom? We need to hear him speak on this urgent matter.
India is always ready to become friend of every country who has malicious designed against Pakistan!!!! we should not let india be successful.
Alliance was already there it is just highlighted in media right now. This is just to cerate pressure on Pakistan. Pakistanis are instead laughing back at the Mayor of Kabul who cant even police his employers at US embassy, US the superpower beaten by AK47s and RPGs and India which lost the proxy war with Sri Lanka.
It means nothing. Karzai is a puppet. He is just a voice for the Americans. He cannot stay in Afghanistan for a single day without American support. This is just a way of pressurizing Pakistan. It will yield nothing.
Pakistan should teach karzai a lesson via the strategic assets.how dare this man talk to the indians without consulting pakistan.As General Kayani aptly put "A stable afghanistan is not worth abandoning strategic interests".Afghans should know their place.
I don't think that this should come as any great surprise to the Pakistani people. Afghanistan has always demonstrated itself to be a lackey of the Indians and has actively used itself as a base to cause trouble in Pakistan. If anything, Pakistan's position is now justified in sealing the border and deporting the Afghani refugees we have back to Kabul. Enough is enough. Pakistanis have tolerated this thankless Afghan regime long enough.
This is all side show.
The biggest threat facing the South Asian region is complete collapse and disintegration of Pakistan and the anarchy that is going to fall upon the region.
Whatever they signed pact or paper. Afghanis has to walk or drive through the Pakistan - they never gave up on Pakistan. They knows that too what India looking in Afghanistan - CHEAP LABOR, which I think plenty in India already. Afghanis also knows it is easy to fools Pakistanis then Indians. Last, Indians won't come to help when they will cry to bread, mukhan or milk. So good luck for Af-in pac!
Pakistan and India are moving in a positive direction and have agreed to a few friendly terms. If we are sincere then we should be happy that India and Afghanistan are also coming closer. This can create a new alliance if all the parties show openness, tolerance and mutual respect for each other. No friendly relationship should be against anybody. Honestly speaking, we cannot be a regional power in the area with the US troops, China and India. Even if we spend 100% of our budget on defense still we would not be equal to these large powers. We don’t have to surrender (like the past) to any power but give up the dream of being a super power.
i dont think anyone cares any more about what pak thinks. Because of our flawed policies, our begging attitude, our failed economy, our historical double game, our shattered reputation, our black mailing attitude, our insecurity, our lack of self respect, our lack of identity, our hateful society.... No country expects anything more from us..
Reading between the lines, one can discern that America has decided to let go of Southern Afghanistan and continue their nation building exercise only in north. This can be seen in position taken by old Northern Alliance against any talks with Taliban and also lukewarm attitude of NATO and India towards reconciliation. American efforts at private talks with Taliban also point in same direction. The American effort to sign a status of force agreement is sure fire poison for reconciliation. Also notice the effort to establish a route through Uzbekistan to north of Afghanistan This is essentially Robert Blackwill plan. The idea is to dump Afghan south and let it become a problem for Pakistan. When Hillary Clinton talks about Silk Road, she is talking about a road from India to Kabul, then north to Uzbekistan and Georgia. There are two problems with this plan. Internally, Taliban do not buy this division and Karzai is of no use in such a setup. I see more focused attacks on Kabul to derail this plan from Taliban and pro division forces work on elimination of those personalities who want to see a unified Afghanistan. There is also Haqqani tribe sitting on top of Peshawar – Kabul axis, hence the focus on Haqqani network. Then there is the question of buy in from neighboring countries. If you put the event in this frame work then you will see lot of coherence and save yourself grief of blame games. Now you see the weakness of Karzai in his new deal. It definitely is a poke but Pakistan should play it cool and let India go deeper into Afghan quagmire.
Sure...A corrupt govt in india..an american puppet in kabul...70% of the Afghanistan under taliban control....India should talk to taliban but the taliban wont talk to the indians...haha...please sign more deals because Karzai will be back to his real home in USA...
With such kind of pacts with India on security issues, mining and exploration of hydrocarbon, the Afghan President has risked his life. Indian presence in Afghanistan, even for the developmental works, is not viewed kindly in Pakistan. And, therefore, Pakistan will certainly consider these pacts as an insult and would never like the culmination of endgame in Afghanistan in India's favour. Its a pity that cooperation between India and Pakistan on Afghanistan seems impossible. The only thing Pakistan would like in Afghanistan is to sabotage these pacts and try to dislodge Karzai with the help of all its might under its command. Initiating deliberations with Taliban is one step towards this goal. If Pakistan fails to control Afghani regime in its favour, the region is going to become hotbed for all neighbouring countries with dangers of loss of more lives and chaotic upheavals.
Hamid Karzai is a real dual faced puppet entity with nill support in Afghanistan , Hamid Karzai is coded to bash Pakistan in any way possible , i dont think India can help Afghan army to train them fight against talibans as surveys show that 80% of Afghan army consists of heavy drug addicts . they should better negotiate with talibans and settle their stupid disputes .
This should be seen as a fresh start in the region. Afghanistan has tried getting closer to Pakistan but only got chaos in the process. It is time to try a different tack. But the ISI will not stand by and watch. Look out for their vengeance.
Karzai virtually controls less than 10% of Afghanistan, is always scared to come out of his compound in Kabul that is highly protected by US forces and runs the most corrupt government in Afghanistan history. Do his so-called strategic alliances bear any value or legitimacy. More than 3 million of his people still live in Pakistan. In the post US withdrawl Afghanistan, Karzai
s fate seems no different than Dr Najibullah who was protected by Soviets and their Indian friends. Indians should think before signing agreements with a useless man who doesnt represent Afghan people.why doesn't Pakistan compete with India in helping the government in Kabul, whichever it may be ? Pakistan has not even given poor , land-locked Aafganistan transit rights to freely export its goods to India. How small is that ?
Pakistan is sandwiched between the two countries. Pakistan try and work towards maintaining excellent relations with both countries based on trust.
PAK had a chance with Afgahnistan to assert her foreign policy but she gave Taliban to Afghanistan instead. It is time for Pakistan to let the Afghanistan determine their destiny.
PAK at present does not have the luxury of playing in foreign policy. She herself is in shaky grounds both domestically and internationally.
PAK's boasting of all weather friendship with China does not affect India or Afghanistan. Why should PAK be concerned about the Afghanistan - India relationship.
The India centric domestic and foreign policy objectives were / will be the impediments to PAK growth.
The Pakistani Army (because of its obsessive security paranoia and delusions of grandeur) is addicted to using jihadis as proxies and it is addicted to meddling in places where it shouldn't. They are going to have to give up on both these addictions. And they are going to have to kiss and make up with India.
If the don't do this, and soon, I fear for the future of Pakistan, and other countries in the region.
The irony is, from a theological point of view: today's Afghanistan has always been trying to conquer today's India, while Pakistan/majority Kshatriya caste always tried to stop them.
But Pakistanis were Hindus. Great times.
Well Karzai is doing what US has asked him to do but what is unfortunate that Pakistanis dont realize you can get much more playing diplomatic than by having a hostile posture
This simply means Karzai's days are numbered ;)
If the Taliban didn’t surrender to USA why do u think they shall be shivering at the prospect of Indians training Afghan army. This alignment shall only serve to expose how far the Indians are prepared to sacrifice. Now that the attention of the fighters shall shift from Pakistan to India. Good Luck to who ever is involved. The Afghans kicked the Russians out, they are close to repeating the same against the Americans, lets see what happens to their new best friends.