AI, Gulf policy shifts threaten migrant jobs

Conflicts reshape labour market of region; experts flag risks to Pakistan's outlook

LAHORE:

Artificial intelligence and changing labour policies in Gulf states could affect up to seven out of 10 jobs traditionally taken by migrant workers, economists warn at an international conference on migration, saying the possible decline in inflows along the Gulf corridor needs urgent attention.

Dr Nasir Iqbal of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) said 2026 had fundamentally reshaped the migration landscape as the ongoing conflict and the rapid rise of AI changed how Gulf states would approach migrant labour, with greater emphasis on selecting workers by skills, occupations and migration pathways. Sending countries, he added, were becoming active partners in screening and preparing workers, which would benefit both sides. He cautioned that while remittances continued to dominate the debate, current inflows may hide a future decline in overseas employment opportunities.

He was speaking at the two-day Fourth International Conference, "Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia," organised by the Centre on International Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD) at the Lahore School of Economics and attended by scholars, researchers and policy specialists from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

Other speakers also pointed to tighter rules and a changing job market. Francoise De Bel-Air, Senior Fellow at the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population (GLMM) programme, said opportunities were growing for skilled professionals across North America, Europe and the Gulf. However, she said, traditional routes for low- and semi-skilled workers faced increasing restrictions.

Froilan Malit, an Asia-Middle East labour migration specialist, argued that the Asia-Gulf corridor remained the most resilient labour migration system in the Global South. He said skill recognition systems between regions needed a further study and should be built into foreign policy frameworks for South-South labour migration. Marco Mogiani of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development said evolving European Union policies, including stricter border controls, biometric surveillance and return measures, had influenced migration patterns from Pakistan and Bangladesh. The discussion also covered the two countries' anti-smuggling and migration policies and their effect on routes, departures and migrant casualties.

Dr Fareeha Zafar of the Lahore School of Economics identified political instability, economic insecurity, unemployment and limited access to quality education as the main drivers of irregular migration from Asia. She also highlighted its gender aspects, noting that women faced greater vulnerabilities, including the risk of human trafficking, along irregular transit routes.

Country studies showed how deeply some economies relied on migration. Dr Richa Shivakoti said Nepal remained heavily dependent on labour migration, with remittances contributing about 33% of its GDP. She cited unemployment, political and economic uncertainty, climate-related disasters and a growing culture of migration among young people. Dr Maruja MB Asis said limited decent jobs at home and steady overseas demand drove migration from the Philippines. She noted the feminisation and diversification of labour migration and named ageing population, declining fertility and digitalisation as emerging factors.

The speakers were of the view that Pakistan's migration showed both continuity and change, with traditional labour migration to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states continuing alongside growing skilled migration to Western countries. They mentioned economic instability, pro-migration government policy and remittances as key drivers, and said skill mismatches and geopolitical conflicts were the challenges.

They added that migration pressures in countries such as Pakistan and Nepal were likely to stay high because of demographic shifts and limited domestic opportunities. Speakers urged researchers to take a forward-looking view of the evolving global skills needs and the development priorities of sending and receiving countries.