Bill Gates warns of 20 years of turmoil from artificial intelligence

Microsoft co-founder says AI could disrupt jobs, reshape society even under best-case scenario

Bill Gates warned that artificial intelligence could trigger two decades of economic and social upheaval, disrupting jobs and life even if the technology is managed successfully.

In an interview with the Decoder podcast posted Thursday, the Microsoft co-founder said the transition to an AI-driven economy would create winners and losers, potentially reshaping employment and raising questions about people's roles in society.

"My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where they'll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption," said Gates, 70, adding that society would have to navigate the upheaval before potentially entering an era of abundance.

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He described the timeframe as an estimate rather than a firm prediction, acknowledging that the transition could be shorter or longer depending on technological advances and decisions about slowing development.

Gates said advances in AI and humanoid robotics could eventually allow machines to perform much of the physical labour carried out by humans, including building homes, growing food, and even performing surgery.

While the advances could reduce shortages of goods and services, he suggested societies might deliberately reserve certain activities for humans, including childcare, food preparation, arts, and sports.

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The billionaire philanthropist also highlighted AI's potential benefits in healthcare and agriculture but warned that governments and society are not adequately prepared for its rapid development.

He urged stronger government oversight and technical safeguards against cyberattacks and biological threats, arguing that AI companies alone cannot be responsible for managing the risks.

Gates also warned that even under the most favourable circumstances, AI's development could bring one of the most tumultuous periods in human history. "I hate being the bearer of concerning news on this, but it's even worse not to tell people that this is coming. We have choices as humans to make about how we shape it," he said.