Russia's Pakistan signal?

Three Russian security visits to three regional capitals last week deserve attention, particularly from Pakistan. On October 14, Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev held crucial talks with Pakistan's civilian and military leadership in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The same day, Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, was in Kabul for talks with Taliban intelligence chief Abdul Haq Wasiq. In New Delhi, Aleksandr Venediktov, deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council, co-chaired security talks with Indian Deputy National Security Adviser Pavan Kapoor.

The timing is difficult to ignore. Russia is a major power with deep historical connections across the region. India remains its longstanding strategic partner. Pakistan was on the opposite side during the Cold War, while Afghanistan carries its own complicated history for Moscow. What makes the latest diplomatic activity significant is that it comes as Indo-Pak tensions remain high and relations between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated sharply.

The starting point for understanding Moscow's moves is Afghanistan. Russia remains the only country to have formally recognised the Taliban government. That decision itself departed from the regional approach Pakistan had hoped countries would follow towards Kabul. The shift became even more visible at the Moscow Format meeting on October 5. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov offered a markedly different assessment of Afghanistan from Pakistan. While Islamabad accuses the Taliban authorities of harbouring the banned TTP, Lavrov praised Kabul's efforts against terrorist groups and described the Taliban-led administration as a "national government" that was governing the country successfully.

The differences surfaced dramatically when participants failed to issue a joint statement. Russian officials said Afghan objections to language relating to terrorism and Pak-Afghan tensions prevented consensus. Moscow still acknowledges that terrorist groups operating from Afghanistan threaten Russia and its allies. The crucial difference is that it increasingly separates that threat from the Taliban government itself.

It is against this background that last week's visits become significant. Kolokoltsev, the first Russian interior minister to visit Pakistan, received an unusually warm welcome. He met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Field Marshal Asim Munir. Pakistan and Russia also signed an agreement to strengthen cooperation against organised crime. Yet the public warmth should not obscure potential differences over Afghanistan. Pakistani officials privately play down Moscow's growing proximity to the Taliban, arguing that Russia believes engagement can prevent Kabul from again opening the door to Western influence.

That explanation may only tell part of the story. Some diplomats also link Moscow's calculations to changing strategic alignments following the Makkah pact. Russia may be assessing what the new arrangement means for its interests in the Gulf and the wider region. One diplomat went further, alleging Russian assistance to the Houthis and arguing that a prolonged Gulf conflict benefits Moscow through higher energy prices. Such assertions remain difficult to independently verify, but they illustrate the suspicions surrounding Russia's regional moves. Perhaps most intriguing was Venediktov's visit to New Delhi. He and Kapoor chaired the seventh round of the India-Russia Special Mechanism on Pakistan and Afghanistan, a dedicated bilateral forum whose very title is noteworthy at a moment of acute Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions.

None of this proves that Moscow's simultaneous engagement with Islamabad, Kabul and New Delhi represents a coordinated strategy aimed at Pakistan or the Makkah agreement. But neither should the timing be dismissed as coincidence. Russia is clearly becoming more active across a region where old fault lines are widening and new alliances are emerging. Watch Moscow's next moves carefully; they may be the message for Islamabad and its allies.