Staples, fuel keep SPI near 12% YoY

Weekly inflation rises 0.57%; flour jumps 5.69%; onions up 100%

KARACHI:

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) stayed elevated at almost 12% year-on-year in the week ended October 8, 2026, as wheat flour, chicken and petrol kept short-term inflation under pressure, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed.

The weekly SPI rose 0.57% from the previous week and 11.97% from the corresponding week of last year. The combined index stood at 372.58, against 370.46 a week earlier and 332.75 on October 9, 2025.

Wheat flour led the weekly rise, up 5.69% to Rs2,851 for a 20-kilogramme bag, from Rs2,697 a week earlier and Rs2,150 a year ago. Chicken followed with a rise of 4.93% to Rs383 a kg, gram pulse with 3.99%, and petrol and tomatoes with 2.40% each. Petrol averaged Rs398.87 a litre.

Masoor pulse rose 1.29%, prepared tea 1.08%, cooked daal 0.98%, mash pulse 0.91% and LPG 0.57%. An 11.67kg LPG cylinder averaged Rs5,132. Prices of bananas fell 2.81%, diesel 1.37% to Rs397.02 a litre, potatoes 0.89%, sugar 0.37%, gur 0.19% and moong pulse 0.03%. Of the 51 items tracked in 50 markets across 17 cities, prices of 20 items increased, six declined and 25 remained unchanged.

The year-on-year reading was driven by energy and a few staples. Onion prices more than doubled, up 100.24% to Rs190 a kg from Rs95 a year earlier. LPG rose 68.55%, electricity charges for Q1 58.59%, petrol 47.52% and diesel 42.52%. Wheat flour was 32.60% higher.

Chilli powder rose 15.55%, mutton 15.02%, beef 12.60%, chicken 9.44%, plain bread 8.99% and curd 8.08%. Potatoes fell 39.51%, tomatoes 37.07%, sugar 22.44% and eggs 18.88%. Salt, masoor pulse, gur and moong pulse were also cheaper than a year ago.

The burden was uneven. The SPI for the highest consumption quintile rose 12.48% year-on-year, against 9.41% for the lowest. Week-on-week, the top group rose 0.60% and the bottom 0.52%.

The weekly print sits above the broader August trend. The CPI inflation rose 11.1% year-on-year in August 2026, against 9.2% in July and 3.1% in August 2025. On a monthly basis, it was unchanged at 1.2%. Urban CPI rose 10.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, while rural CPI rose 12.2% and 1.6%.