What's Russia up to?

Messaging out of Moscow points to the unfolding of a new great game, presumably disturbing for Pakistan. Let us see why recent signals, particularly from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, merit scrutiny and raise critical questions.

Is Russia settling scores by recognising and openly praising its erstwhile rival, the Afghan Taliban? Is Afghanistan turning into a proxy battlefield yet again? Is Foreign Minister Lavrov's telling the world: you may shun the Taliban, but we will not? And is Russia targeting the United States and Pakistan – partners in the anti-Soviet jihad – because the two are now so close that Moscow sees Islamabad as more of a facilitator of Washington's regional agenda than a neutral partner?

In Moscow's view, the American CIA and Pakistan's ISI engineered the Soviet Union's defeat through the mujahideen, forcing its withdrawal in February 1989. The two agencies later joined hands again in the war on terror, against both Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, before the United States chaotically withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021.

The Russian foreign minister first urged all participants of the Moscow Format Consultations on October 5 to acknowledge that the Taliban regime "has been successfully governing the country". Lavrov then showered praise on Taliban security forces for their "uncompromising fight against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups on the Afghan soil".

Why would Moscow go out of the way on the ISIS issue? Most probably because it suspects the American CIA of raising Daesh/ISIS, whose cells operate in Russia and Central Asia. Moscow considers these cells as sources of destabilisation of the region.

"Afghan security forces are waging an uncompromising fight against ISIS and other terrorist groups. Hundreds of militants have been eliminated, and a number of high-profile terrorist attacks, including those targeting foreign nationals and diplomatic missions, have been foiled," Lavrov said.

"Let me emphasise that it is in our shared interest to help strengthen Kabul's counterterrorism capabilities by providing material, technical, and expert assistance, as well as by maintaining contacts between security services and military agencies."

In the same breath, the Russian foreign minister warned against any foreign involvement in Afghanistan and its neighbourhood: "The deployment of NATO military infrastructure in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries under any pretext whatsoever is categorically unacceptable… presence of this kind carries the risk of destabilisation and heightened tensions and conflict. We have seen no other outcome from this kind of presence over the past several decades," Lavrov said.

Also in his meeting with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on the sidelines of the Moscow Format Consultations, Lavrov had extended his country's appreciation for Taliban's counterterrorism efforts.

This repositioning, it seems, has been underway for a few months.

In a July 15 address to a regional meeting on preventing terrorists from securing weapons in Central Asia, the Russian foreign minister had named ISIS in his customary way, as "Wilayat Khorasan", describing it as an Afghanistan-based threat.

"Terrorism remains one of the most daunting challenges to international peace and stability. For the Central Asian region, the main threat is undoubtedly posed by the Islamic State offshoot Wilayat Khorasan (or Khorasan Province), which seeks to use Afghanistan as a launching pad for expansion and subsequent establishment of a caliphate," said Lavrov.

Curiously at a press conference on October 6, Lavrov did not use the term and instead described the Islamic State's Pakistani branch as a "troublemaker that carries out terrorist incursions in Afghanistan and Pakistan".

The change matters because the July framing contradicted Kabul, and Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid had rejected it, saying the group had been contained and no longer had a physical presence in Afghanistan.

But the October 6 framing fits the Taliban's position better, who insist Daesh/ISKP camps are situated in Pakistan and are being used against neighbours including Afghanistan. In Lavrov's words: "Afghanistan and Pakistan are currently engaged in fairly serious confrontation because Islamic State operates an offshoot which it calls its Pakistani branch. It's a troublemaker that carries out terrorist incursions in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

The new framing moves the focus to an alleged Pakistan-linked entity, and it came as Lavrov was praising the Taliban's counterterrorism record and offering to help in the fight.

Is it a coincidence then that Russia has dropped the "Wilayat Khorasan" framing in favour of the Afghan Taliban's characterisation of Daesh/ISIS ?

In just three months, Moscow has shifted its public position on where the Islamic State's regional threat originates, bringing it closer to the account of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

India, too, is lapping up yesterday's alleged terrorists as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.

At the UN Security Council committee meeting on September 16, India was the only country to praise the Taliban, boasting of its diplomatic, political and humanitarian support to Kabul. Its ambassador did not mention terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, nor was women's rights or the humanitarian situation raised.

Why would Russia align with Kabul when Pakistan, China, Uzbekistan and the UN consistently accuse the Taliban of sheltering groups ?

Are Moscow and Kabul signaling to the United States and Pakistan that if they back the alleged anti-Kabul groups, Russia can also step in to help fend off that threat?

Is the Russian claim that Pakistan supplied ammunition to Ukraine also be a driver behind Moscow's recalibration? It perhaps now brackets Pakistan with the pro Ukraine alliance led by US-Europe. Why would it otherwise embrace the Taliban for cooperation?

Is this why the Moscow Format meeting ended without any significant outcome?