Russia's Taliban outreach 'driven by US fears'

Russia's increasingly accommodating posture towards Afghanistan's Taliban regime has fueled speculation that Moscow may be recalibrating its regional policy, particularly after it publicly recognised the Taliban administration as Afghanistan's national government and apparently ignored Kabul's ties with terrorist groups.

But Pakistani and diplomatic sources have dismissed the perception of any major policy shift, arguing that Moscow's softer approach towards the Taliban is primarily driven by its strategic objective of preventing the United States from regaining a foothold in Afghanistan.

The issue came into sharper focus at a Moscow Format meeting held earlier this week, where the Russian foreign minister publicly praised the Taliban administration. What raised eyebrows in diplomatic circles was Moscow's apparent effort to play down the regime's links with terrorist activities, prompting speculation that changing regional dynamics may be pushing Russia closer to Kabul.

Pakistani officials, however, are not overly concerned about the development. A source familiar with the discussions said Russia, as the host of the Moscow Format meeting, had deliberately adopted a conciliatory tone towards the Taliban, but that should not be interpreted as Moscow having abandoned its concerns about the Afghan regime.

The source said Russia was deliberately pursuing a "soft approach" towards the Taliban, driven largely by its assessment that putting excessive pressure on Kabul could push the regime towards Washington. "Russia's main concern is to deny the US a foothold in Afghanistan again and hence they are working with the Taliban regime," the source said.

"The best course is to keep nudging and prodding them," the source said, describing Moscow's strategy as one of engagement rather than confrontation. The source, however, made it clear that there had been no corresponding change in Russia's approach towards Pakistan.

Pakistan and Russia recently concluded their joint military exercises, while Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's visit to Moscow is also being planned, according to the source.

The absence of a joint statement at the latest Moscow Format meeting was also attributed to differences with the Afghan Taliban rather than any Russia-Pakistan divergence. The source said the Russian side was itself unhappy with the failure to issue a joint statement, pointing out that the Taliban had not objected to a similar statement at last year's meeting.

According to the source, Russia sought Pakistan's input on the proposed joint statement, and Islamabad made it clear that it was prepared to stick to the language and position reflected in the previous statement. However, the Taliban did not agree to the proposed text, resulting in the meeting ending without a joint statement.

The development underscored the growing differences between the Taliban regime and its regional interlocutors over how the security situation in Afghanistan should be addressed.

For Moscow, however, maintaining engagement with Kabul appears to remain a strategic calculation rather than an endorsement of all Taliban policies. Pakistan, meanwhile, continues to press the Afghan authorities to take concrete action against terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil, particularly the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).