Trump will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize, but he may influence who does, say experts

This year, the five-strong body will be mindful of ​picking someone who can withstand pressure from Trump.

US President Donald Trump looks on, at Shannon Airport in Ireland, September 13, 2026. REUTERS

US President Donald Trump will not win ​this year's Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran, but his influence will still be felt by the awarding body ‌that picks the laureate, according to experts.

Last year's award, to Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado, was unique in the prize's 125-year history, coming amid repeated lobbying by Trump to get the award. Weeks later, Machado gave her gold Nobel medal to Trump, in a bid to win support for her efforts for a democratic Venezuela.

This year, the five-strong body will be mindful of ​picking someone who can withstand pressure from Trump, according to Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

"I think last ​year's events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of ⁠the considerations that they make," he told Reuters.

"One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from ​Donald Trump ... I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good."

That could mean an award to Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International ​Court of Justice or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, experts say. The announcement is on October 9.

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