Rising seas threat

Sea levels are rising, and their consequences will be anything but gradual. A unanimous UN General Assembly declaration calling for stronger global action has brought renewed urgency to a threat that has long been treated as a distant consequence of climate change. For small island states, it raises the extraordinary prospect of territories disappearing beneath the ocean. For countries such as Pakistan, the danger may be less dramatic in appearance, but it is already creeping onto the coastline.

There is little room for complacency. Global sea level rose by almost six millimetres in 2024, the largest annual increase on record, while the pace of the rise has accelerated considerably over recent decades. What is measured globally in millimetres eventually translates into flooded settlements and eroding coastlines. Pakistan has particular reason to pay attention. Its coastline stretches more than 1,000 kilometres along Sindh and Balochistan and includes the densely populated metropolis of Karachi as well as the ecologically fragile Indus Delta. Low-lying areas along the Sindh coast are especially vulnerable to the combined effects of sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surges and saltwater intrusion. What is often discussed as a future climate threat is, for communities in the delta, already an unfolding reality.

Sea-level projections must become part of decisions being made today. Authorities must identify areas most vulnerable to inundation and erosion, and prevent further development from creating populations and assets that will become increasingly expensive, or impossible, to protect. Natural defences also deserve far greater attention. Mangrove forests along the Sindh coast and Indus Delta provide an important buffer against waves. Pakistan has made considerable efforts to expand mangrove cover, but plantation drives in isolation aren't enough.