Two wars and the World Order

In the early months of World War-I, HG Wells dubbed it "the war to end all wars" in the hope that such unprecedented devastation would force humanity to abolish conflict forever. Wells was proven wrong. World War-II quickly followed, then the Cold War, and now an endless list of global conflicts. It seems humanity and war simply go hand in hand.

War is, however, the most extreme reaction. It is waged when all other peaceful options have been exhausted, and when at least one side is confident that the war will end the conflict permanently in its favour. But as history shows, that is seldom the case. War only suppresses an enemy's hostility for a limited time; it can never destroy their will to restock, regroup, reassess and reengage. That is human nature. Because human will and agency cannot be chained, they will always find and forge novel paths.

The odd thing about war is that it pulls adversaries into a field fraught with depleting stocks, dwindling manpower, improvisation, urgent action, and the on-the-spot evolution of strategy, technology, and battlefield structure. While a nation may enter a conflict with confident calculations, the mathematics of war change rapidly. In an era where technological advancement constantly hits new peaks, conventional battlegrounds are now fundamentally altered by cyber, AI, space and psychological operations. Crucially, history proves that even the most impoverished populations quickly adapt to counter top-tier militaries, driven by the existential need to survive and protect their freedom.

This brings us to this critical question: can the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East truly pave the way for a lasting peace, whether among rival Middle Eastern factions or between the Global North and Global South? Those who initiated these wars likely believed they could subdue their adversaries for decades, forcibly integrating them into a manufactured world order. However, the current geopolitical reality projects a starkly different outcome.

It may seem that the US and Israel have successfully pitted Middle Eastern states against one another. For instance, Iran has launched ballistic missiles and attack drones against US facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq/Kurdistan, and the UAE. With the Strait of Hormuz already stranded, the Yemenis are threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab. This has practically ignited a second war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, as the Houthis launch drone and missile salvos targeting Red Sea infrastructure, including Yanbu, and seize coastal areas like Mokha, Dhubab, Mayyum and the Hanish Islands from Yemen's southern government. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia's critical East-West oil pipeline was struck by Iraqi militias, while the Houthis targeted the Saudi cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. All the while, Israel continues pounding targets in southern Lebanon and southern Syria.

On the other hand, repeated drone strikes by Ukraine have damaged Russian refineries, reduced fuel production and forced Moscow to restrict exports. By September, half of Russia's six largest diesel-producing refineries had reduced output substantially or were shut altogether. In August, Russian product exports plummeted to around half of the levels recorded a year earlier. In return Russia has started a major operation targeting Ukrainian cities and military infrastructures.

This is surely a daunting scenario. Oil shortages and prices can potentially bring the global economy to a standstill. Prolonged war can bring unprecedented devastation to the regions and can easily spill over into the Middle East neighborhood and Europe. But while the wars are on, a lot of restocking, regrouping, reassessing has gone on. In spite of the US pressure, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have entered the Makkah Defence Pact with Pakistan, and Egypt wants to be a part of it too. Pakistan has also made a defence partnership with Somalia for joint counterterrorism and security assistance. Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy will help build and train the Somali armies, which will perhaps help stop the ongoing balkanisation of Somalia, and my bring us into a direct confrontation with Israel, as Israel supports the separation of Somaliland.

Europe, which envisioned a weakened Russia and the entry of Ukraine into the EU at the conclusion of the conflict, now finds itself on the verge of war. For months, top European generals and leaders have been warning their citizens to prepare for conflict - a clear sign that events have unfolded contrary to their expectations. At the end of the war, the US will likely be irrelevant in the Middle East, its bases torn down and deserted, leaving Israel isolated and vulnerable. Instead, the Middle East will integrate into the Global South, establishing its own security architecture complemented by China and Russia.

This week, just as the Iranian president arrived to deliver his speech at the UN General Assembly in New York, the US Treasury threatened restrictions on 27 Iranian airlines. Washington warned that any entity providing services to these carriers would be frozen out of the dollar system. It is for precisely this type of reason that China, along with its BRICS partners, is moving toward a new gold-backed currency basket to eliminate the risk of unilateral US sanctions. China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System already processes an estimated $26 trillion in cross-border trade using yuan, spanning at least 192 countries and regions including Russia and Iran. Concurrently, large gold vaults have been established in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Dubai and Moscow, laying the groundwork for an alternative financial infrastructure where Global South nations can trade without fear of financial blockades.

By the end of these two wars, there may be more wars, but the world will certainly have a new order of things. Nations that successfully navigate these tectonic shifts in the strategic and economic landscape can lead their citizens into an era of strength, peace and progress. Conversely, the naive will be marginalised once more. Ultimately, no historical shift can change the inherent human nature of the dominant actors who crave power. The public must therefore advocate for themselves, driving the hard push toward the lasting peace and prosperity they deserve.