Experts warn of growing South Asia instability

Strategic experts have cautioned that the changing global and regional strategic environment is posing growing challenges to strategic stability in South Asia, citing the erosion of traditional arms-control frameworks, modernisation of nuclear capabilities and shrinking space for diplomacy.

Former and current officials of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) made the observations during the seventh edition of the "Training of the Trainers" (ToT) workshop on strategic matters organised by the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.

The workshop brought together senior professors and academics from universities across Pakistan, along with think-tank professionals, foreign policy experts and diplomats. It aimed to strengthen understanding of contemporary strategic issues and build the capacity of academics and trainers to contribute to informed discourse on strategic stability, nuclear deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation.

Speaking on the occasion, the officials also pointed to the selective application of non-proliferation norms, disruptive technologies and increasing reliance on hard power as factors complicating efforts to reduce risks and prevent conflict in the region.

Lt-Gen (retd) Mazhar Jamil, adviser to the National Command Authority (NCA) and former director general of the SPD, said the global and regional strategic environment was becoming increasingly complex, with the erosion of traditional arms-control frameworks, diminishing diplomatic space and the growing role of hard power and emerging technologies creating new challenges for strategic stability.

Persistent threat perceptions, unresolved disputes such as Kashmir and India's aggressive military posturing had contributed to continuing security tensions in the region, Jamil said in his concluding keynote address, according to a statement issued here.

"Strategic stability cannot be separated from the underlying political realities," he added, cautioning that Indian military adventurism and hegemonic approaches in a nuclearised South Asia carried unacceptable risks. Referring to the experience of May 2025, Jamil stressed that there was no space for war between two nuclear-armed states.

He also highlighted Pakistan's credible nuclear deterrence, conventional capabilities, national resilience and cohesive response framework, including the principle of "quid pro quo-plus", saying these were aimed at ensuring that no aggressor could achieve its political or military objectives through force.

Earlier, Maj-Gen (retd) Syed Shahab Shahid, director general of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs at the SPD, said the global arms-control, disarmament and non-proliferation architecture was facing growing challenges. He called for a balanced, equitable and non-discriminatory approach that took into account the legitimate security concerns of all states.

Shahid said the continued modernisation and diversification of nuclear and strategic capabilities, alongside emerging developments in South Asia, were reshaping the strategic environment and creating new challenges for strategic stability.

He warned that the selective application of non-proliferation norms and security arrangements could undermine confidence in the existing international security architecture, stressing the need for a consistent and inclusive approach to strengthening strategic stability, reducing risks and advancing meaningful arms-control and non-proliferation objectives.

In his opening remarks, CISS Executive Director Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi reflected on Pakistan's strategic environment, tracing its regional relevance and the opportunities and challenges shaping its security landscape.

He highlighted Pakistan's role as a diplomatic actor and its stated commitment to regional stability, while underscoring the importance of effective strategic responses to an increasingly complex security environment.

Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, in his keynote address, said Pakistan was emerging as a credible middle power in the evolving international order. He said Pakistan's ability to mediate, engage and build partnerships in an increasingly fragmented world reflected what he described as the country's growing strategic weight.