The impact of Iran's military operations on the US

Over the last few weeks, we discussed the US carrier-based military assets in three fleets, comprising 11 aircraft carriers and their inordinate deployment to the Middle East, leaving other theatres of likely conflict, unprotected and uncovered. We discussed American military bases (more than 750 in around 80 countries) under three commands, to protect shipping, project power and support alliances like NATO, etc. We also discussed the losses caused by Iran to America's Middle Eastern infrastructure in some eight countries, causing some 13 billion dollars in damages. We continue the debate by discussing the implications of Iran's military operations against the US.

Iran's systematic targeting of high-value technical assets in the US 5th Fleet in Bahrain has caused extensive damage. Iran battered Fleet's command headquarters building, two vital satellite communications terminals and around a dozen support facilities. In Kuwait and Jordan, Iran targeted US Air Defense & Radar Systems, including Patriot missile systems, and advanced THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems. It also methodically battered high-end C-RAM radars and communication radomes. Logistic hubs in Kuwait, such as Camp Buehring and Ali Al Salem Air Base, were hit hard. Tehran, reportedly, destroyed warehouses, support facilities and hangars, causing parts of these bases to temporarily halt operations.

US losses, as reported to the Congress, comprise at least 42 American aircraft (damaged or destroyed), including Advanced F-15 and F-35C Lightning II fighter jets in hangars, A-10 Thunderbolt attack planes and aerial refuelling aircraft. The US also lost around 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones including one entire drone depot in Kuwait. Helicopter losses comprise heavy-lift CH-47 Chinook and CH-53 Sea Stallion helicopters.

Iran's inexpensive drone and cruise/ballistic missile swarms forced disproportionate AD responses from the US bases, from the host countries and from the carrier groups. The ensuing interceptions of Iran's swarms, over several months, has severely depleted America's precision weapons stocks, particularly AD missiles carried by USN destroyers. Iranian attacks injured over 600 American soldiers and killed some servicemen in Jordan and Iraq. Losses inflicted curtailed supplies to aircraft carrier groups from forward naval base in Bahrain, forcing carrier groups to depend upon US base in Djibouti, some 2,000 km away, or upon British base in Diego Garcia, over 4,000 km away. "The tyranny of distance" and a weakened auxiliary fleet badly affect US Navy's operational capacity and the mental well-being of its sailors. The USS Lincoln is a case in point.

US forces also find it hard to switch over logistics in support of sustained combat operations (strikes and blockades), from a logistic system, designed for peacetime. In 1990s, America replaced Navy-crewed auxiliary ships with civilian-crewed Military Sealift Command (MSC) vessels, reducing Navy's overall logistics capacity.

In the absence of credible military posturing in the Middle East, on land, in the air (as discussed previously), and over and under the sea, due to stressed naval logistics, Washington cannot credibly project force and bend Iran to its will. The cited situation is exacerbated by a mercurial Secretary of War, Peter Hegseth, whose own military experience is restricted to the rank of Major in National Guards. His firing of Generals, Admirals and Flag Officers, besides denying promotions to certain groups like Blacks and women, is already creating ripples in the US Army. The recent resignation of the Army Secretary, after he repeatedly clashed with Mr Hegseth, leaves Army really leaderless and rudderless.

The Iran war and the Pentagon's rush to redirect ships, aircraft and AD units from across Europe and Asia to the ME have cascading effects for troop morale and equipment maintenance. It has negatively impacted American firepower in those regions, indirectly affecting the war in Ukraine. This 'generational annihilation' of America's conventional deterrence would impact decision-making in China and Russia to the chagrin of military and intelligence communities in the US/Europe. Taking a cue, Russia is reportedly accelerating the production of its missile arsenal.

The Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Dan Caine recently asked Trump Administration, in private, to de-escalate with Iran, fearing military options were triggering wider Iranian retaliation against regional energy infrastructure. Reportedly, Gen Caine and others did not believe airpower alone could force Tehran to accept US demands. President Trump also prefers to avoid a ground invasion. The depleted US weapons stocks, including AD interceptors and other precision munitions, could constrain Washington's ability to sustain a prolonged conflict.

Although Trump Administration is asking military contractors to ramp up production, stock replacement would take over two years to just replenish the over 1,500 Patriot AD interceptor missiles fired in this war. The current US inventory has less than 1,700 missiles left, as reported by The New York Times. Similarly, though the US has a vast arsenal of less advanced munitions, like the over 100,000 guided bombs dropped from aircraft, these munitions are to be released closer to their intended targets, risking warplanes getting shot down by Irani drones and missiles.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards/IRGC, on the other hand, seemed buoyed by victory, and are more recalcitrant than ever to end the war on the US terms. They sense the US inability – military as well as political – to prosecute this war of choice, which could be risky for President Trump and PM Netanyahu Combine, and the wider world Jewry. Therefore, according to CNN, the US Administration was looking for an outcome that Trump could politically portray as victory, allowing diplomacy to work to produce a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

However, for Iran, the harsher economic sanctions would continue to create difficulties for the regime and the public. Another often-overlooked aspect is the ecological consequence of modern warfare and the damage suffered by Iran from US bombing. Any conflict today produces long-lasting environmental damage including societal destabilisation from contaminated farmland, polluted water systems, devastated ecosystems and the people forced to migrate. This war undermines Iran's human security which may, in the mid to long-term, lead to regime change, either from within, from above or from below.

So far, the situation of military stalemate between the US and Iran is likely to persist in the foreseeable future, with neither side opting for full-scale military confrontation.