Türkiye - the next target

Despite the ongoing and volatile nature of the war in Iran, it is striking that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has initiated an 'economic D-Day', unveiling the nation's toughest financial sanctions yet to enforce complete economic isolation.

Perhaps Bessent forgot that sanctions come before war, and war is waged only after all diplomatic, political and economic pressures have failed. But the real fear hidden behind the glee on the treasury secretary's face is the terrifying fact that the world is ditching US treasury bonds to the point that just to control the bond's yields he has had to announce $1 trillion for buying them back. The trust on the dollar and on America's ability to keep its promises has broken. And the irony is that if the Treasury keeps those bonds, it will be paying interest to itself on bonds issued by itself. So, can it be said that before the Iran War is over, the US is defeated both militarily and economically, not on the bilateral front but on the global front.

Israel, however, is a different ballgame. Already facing steep economic and social isolation in the East, and increasingly in the West now, due to the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement, the country has very little remaining trust or reputation to lose. This isolation has deepened significantly following the ICC's arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza. Furthermore, far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are now barred from entering several European states, while a reported 60% of Americans hold an unfavourable view of Israel, up from 42% in 2022.

Rather, Israel's domestic and foreign policy concerns are both existential and urgent. Its long-standing doctrine of keeping the Middle East divided and fractious ultimately collapsed with the Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The recent war with Iran appeared to be a last-ditch effort to pit regional powers against one another and drive a permanent wedge through the region - theoretically dividing it into pro- and anti-Abraham Accords camps. However, the opposite occurred: the Gulf states acted with strategic restraint to avoid a direct confrontation, the US realised it could not defeat Iran single-handedly, and a vulnerable Israel was forced to step back in the face of Iranian retaliation.

But a peaceful Middle East is an existential threat to Israel. So peace is not an option. And not being able to fight doesn't mean you can't create trouble! So, before the Iran War comes anyway near an end, more war has to be arranged. And Türkiye seems to be the next target!

Türkiye has consistently condemned Israeli actions in the region, particularly against the Palestinians, accusing Tel Aviv of instigating a regional war and operating as the primary destabilising force in the Middle East. Following the outbreak of the Iran war, Ankara deepened its military, political and reconstruction support for Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's government. This shift tracks back to November 27, 2024 - the same day a peace deal was struck between Lebanon and Israel - when a coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (including Turkish-backed groups) launched a lightning offensive that toppled Bashar al-Assad. In the ensuing chaos, Israel heavily bombarded Syrian state facilities and occupied vast territory in southeastern Syria. Türkiye countered by striking a defence pact with Damascus to train the new Syrian army and secure a permanent military presence at the Palmyra and T4 airfields. Consequently, Syria has evolved into a dangerous geopolitical fault line, with Israeli officials increasingly viewing Türkiye as the primary challenge to their regional dominance.

Israel deems Syria to be part of Greater Israel, a low-hanging fruit it will pluck as soon as Assad is ousted. But Türkiye's pragmatism in Syria, and then its joining the Pak-Saudi Defence Pact on August 7 - a pact that treats an armed attack on one signatory as an attack on all - rattled Israel. Hence, the attack on the 18th, when Israel bombed Abu al-Duhur Airbase near Aleppo, far up in the north. Erdogan responded by saying that this attack was a threat to Turkish sovereignty. Earlier, at the start of the Gaza War, Erdogan warned Israel, "Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them."

One should remember that Türkiye, being a NATO member, has been the only regional state that has had defence cooperation agreements with Israel. Azerbaijanian oil reaches Israel via Türkiye. But all this had to change because of Israel's perpetual carnage and massacre of the Palestinians. Because of its stubborn, vicious, extremist, genocidal policies, Israel lost the only state it could rely on in the region, turning it into an enemy.

After the Pak-Saudi-Turk pact, a direct war between Israel and Türkiye becomes more implausible, except for the fact that Israel needs another war. It needs an expansion of the Iran War throughout the region; it needs the Middle East in fire and blood. Otherwise, it will become the prime target itself because everyone will suddenly realize that Israel is the originator and perpetuator of chaos in the region.

If such a war does break out, it will have dangerous consequences. The obvious inclination of the US and NATO toward Israel will mean NATO acting against Türkiye, prompting Türkiye to leave the alliance for good. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would be pulled in, and the conflict would soon escalate into a civilisational war between the Muslim belt and the West. Because neither side would want that, they would try to contain the war within Syria, leaving the country to face even greater destruction and devastation. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-al-Mandab controlled by regional partners, and Türkiye halting Azerbaijani oil to Israel, the energy crisis will deepen for Tel Aviv to the point that the US would have to spend billions just to transport oil to Israel's doorstep. Eastern powers would see the strategic benefit of reigniting the Gaza and Lebanon fronts. Pakistan's entry would introduce the entire Chinese 6GW architecture to the region, and the Global South would find itself in a direct confrontation with the Global North.

Given the impossibility of the situation, Israel and the US could be pulled toward the nuclear option, which would result in Mutually Assured Destruction. Practically speaking, Israel would prefer to limit hostilities to Syria for now. However, the critical question remains: will Türkiye be willing to play ping-pong in Syria and allow an existential threat to hover over it indefinitely?