The cost of escalation

The quasi-peace, quasi-conflict scenario in the Middle East is getting nasty. In the absence of some shrewd handling of eventualities from the warring sides, escalation is on the rise. It possesses all the potential to break out into a major conflagration. Noticeable developments over the last few days suggest that there is a serious trust deficit, and unverified reports are driving the theatre of warfare. A case in point is the renewed tensions between the UAE and Iran, as well as an emerging standoff between Iran and NATO.

Allegations that Tehran had fired missiles over Abu Dhabi's territorial waters swiftly met with a rejoinder from the Emirates in the form of the complete suspension of trade and financial contacts. Though the Islamic Republic has denied any such misadventure on its part, the clarification was too little and too late. Likewise, NATO's warning that it is prepared to take on Iran and invoke Article 5 of the treaty, if the US or any of the alliance member states is attacked, is a prelude to disaster.

That squarely means there is no medium at work to undertake any damage-control measures. This is where the mediators must come back to work, and the onus is on both Iran and the United States to explicitly make it public that parleys are the way to go, and hold fire forthwith. The minimum that President Trump and Iranian spokespersons, especially the IRGC, could do in the service of peace is to avoid the media platform for airing their reservations and grievances. This is proving to be a trouble-multiplier.

With the 60-day ceasefire framework having lapsed without any breakthrough, there is an urgent need for stock-taking. The good point is that Iran has reiterated its faith in the Islamabad MoU as it called upon the US to abide by it in letter and spirit, if it wants to further any kind of rapprochement. That has, in a way, laid down a blueprint for interaction. Tehran and Washington must rest assured that Islamabad is sincere in getting them off the hook. Let's give diplomacy a fresh start.