Makkah Agreement

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye, states that "an armed attack on any one of the three states will be regarded as an attack on all three." This appears to be an extension of a similar agreement (SMDA) signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in 2025. Turkish Defence Minister Hakan Fidan has hinted that Egypt is a potential candidate to join, alongside other nations.

The agreement brings long-awaited unity among Muslim states to the fore. Combining Saudi Arabia's energy wealth, financial prowess and leadership in the Arab world; Türkiye's conventional military power, defence industry and NATO membership; and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities and military superiority in South Asia creates a regional strategic umbrella that can gradually bring other regional allies under its protection. Adding Egypt - the Arab world's largest conventional military establishment, which controls the Suez Corridor - extends this bloc extra-continentally, paving the way for the North African Muslim belt to join a coalition that truly operates as a 'collective security provider' from MENA to South Asia.

This dream is not new though. In 2015, Saudi Arabia formed an Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition with 41 states, under Gen (retd) Raheel Sharif, but it didn't work out. This time, the move appears more systematic and pragmatic, made possible by the China-backed Saudi-Iran rapprochement in 2023 and solidified by the recent Iran War.

The flawed pretext that this agreement is specifically meant to counter the threat of an Iranian attack on Saudi soil has been dismantled by Esmaeil Baghaei's remarks that "Tehran sees no reason to believe the pact is directed against Iran." Consequently, if Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are not threatened by Iran and its regional allies, from whom do they face a threat?

The Gaza War proved the United States' inability to stop Israel from committing a brutal genocide in Gaza and demonstrated the impossibility of achieving a two-state solution under American leadership. The Doha Attack (2015) then put the first major dent in the decades-long US defence pacts with the Gulf nations. Later, during the Iran War, it became clearer than ever that between Israel and any Arab state, Washington would always choose to defend Israel, regardless of the circumstances. All peninsular states suffered bombings from Iran, yet the US failed to provide the strategic protection it had promised them.

Consequently, these states began hinting that they would not host US bases on their soil once the war concluded. These bases failed to protect them; rather, they served as the primary justification for the attacks. As a result, US security guarantees are no longer sought after. Instead, Pakistan - which recently defeated India, an adversary with an army six times larger and double its air power - became the optimal choice.

Türkiye's inclusion in the alliance is particularly significant, not only because this move may displease its NATO partners, but also because Ankara and Riyadh have long engaged in a cold war centred around the former's support for the Muslim Brotherhood. However, those ideological divisions appear to have been set aside as the two states unite to form a common front. Türkiye deemed its participation essential, especially as Israel has openly threatened that Türkiye would be its next target.

The agreement is extraordinary, particularly for Pakistan and more broadly for the Global South. Pakistan's victory against India in the May 2025 military conflict was not achieved in isolation. China collaborated seamlessly with Pakistan, providing access to its advanced Beidou Satellite System for split-second navigation and intelligence. This system was integrated into Chinese-origin Chengdu J-10C and JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, which were equipped with PL-15E missiles featuring both beyond-visual-range and mid-course target relocation capabilities. Consequently, Pakistan's victory demonstrated the effectiveness of its integration into a wider Chinese security architecture. The events of May 2025 served as a powerful demonstration of this shared architecture's strength and accuracy, proving the viability of the concept.

This is extraordinary because Pakistan's entry into Saudi Arabia signifies the expansion of the Chinese security architecture into the Middle East. Such a shift would accelerate the displacement of the US and CENTCOM from the country and the wider region. The Global North and the Global South cannot simultaneously pivot on the same territory without practically turning that nation into a proxy battleground for both. Consequently, the narrative that Saudi Arabia can maintain two opposing options by hosting both security architectures on its soil is fundamentally a logical oxymoron.

In short, following the Iranian strikes on US bases in the region, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye swiftly introduced a new security architecture. While Pakistan serves as the central pivot, the ultimate objective extends beyond a mere trilateral defence treaty; it aims to establish a broader regional collective security network integrated into a global architecture championed by the Global South.

That's how the world is changing – and pretty fast at that!

Furthermore, once the war concludes, Iran will likely move quickly to join the alliance, given its status as a close Chinese ally and the fact that Pakistan's mediation successfully managed tensions between Tehran and the Gulf powers during the conflict. Israel resists an end to the war because once peace is established, the regional Shia-Sunni divide will effectively cease to exist, CENTCOM's presence will dissolve, and the unified strength of these regional partners will inevitably check Israel's expansionist ambitions.

Recent reports indicate that a substantial new American base will be built in Israel, where CENTCOM activities will face greater influence from Israel. Significantly, the day the Makkah Agreement was signed, the CENTCOM commander was in Israel meeting with the IDF Chief of Staff to discuss the shifting security landscape.

Concurrently, India appears highly anxious. Although Delhi has denied requesting a mutual defence treaty with Tel Aviv in response to the Makkah Pact, it is evident that India feels isolated within the Global South and seeks assurances that the Global North stands with it against China and Pakistan.

This raises a crucial question: is it possible that Pakistan, along with its friends, could expand this collective security framework across all 57 OIC states, including the 20 African member nations? While such a grand alliance was previously unthinkable, the strategic shocks of India's Operation Sindoor have made it entirely plausible.