Makkah pact: beginning of a new order?

The security landscape of the Muslim world may be entering a new phase. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye have signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, committing to treat an armed attack against any one of the three countries as an attack against all. Signed in Makkah last Friday, the pact comes at a particularly sensitive moment for the region. The Middle East is already facing heightened tensions involving Iran, the US, missile and drone threats, maritime insecurity and growing questions over the future of the American security role in the region.

Against this backdrop, three major Muslim powers have decided to institutionalise their defence cooperation. The significance of the agreement lies less in the ceremony and more in the message of collective deterrence. The three countries bring different strengths to the table. Together, they offer a combination that neither country could provide alone.

But perhaps the most revealing way to understand the pact is to look back at 2019. At the time, Pakistan found itself caught between two of its important partners: Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. The Kuala Lumpur Summit, involving Türkiye, Malaysia, Iran and Qatar, had raised concerns in Riyadh about possible divisions within the Muslim world and the relevance of the OIC. Pakistan ultimately stayed away from the summit. Erdogan later said Saudi Arabia had pressured Islamabad, while Riyadh denied making threats. Pakistan maintained that it did not want to become part of a new division among Muslim countries.

Seven years later, the picture could hardly be more different. The same three countries were now sitting together in Makkah and signing a collective defence agreement. That transformation tells us a great deal about the changing strategic environment. For Saudi Arabia, this is not necessarily about abandoning the US, but looking for additional layers of security. Türkiye, meanwhile, is gaining a deeper role in Gulf security while expanding its defence partnerships and markets. Ankara is unlikely to abandon its NATO commitments, but it has increasingly pursued a more flexible foreign policy that allows it to work simultaneously with Western allies and other regional powers.

For Pakistan, the implications could be even more significant. Islamabad has maintained longstanding defence ties with Saudi Arabia. Its relationship with Türkiye, meanwhile, has grown substantially in recent years. The new arrangement brings those two relationships together in a formal strategic framework. It could provide Pakistan greater access to Saudi investment, deeper defence-industrial cooperation with Türkiye and a stronger role in discussions over Gulf security. Most importantly, it gives Islamabad renewed strategic relevance.

Is this an anti-Iran alliance? Officially, no.

The three countries have not identified any adversary. Iran, however, will inevitably be watching closely. The same applies to the US. This is not yet the creation of an alternative to the American security umbrella. It is more accurately the emergence of a more multipolar security system in which regional powers want additional options.

India, too, will be watching carefully. The emergence of a formal defence framework bringing Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia together is clearly significant from India's perspective.

The biggest question now is whether the Makkah pact remains trilateral. If other Muslim-majority countries eventually join, or establish associated arrangements, the agreement could evolve into something much larger - not an 'Islamic NATO', but a practical network focused on deterrence, defence technology, intelligence, exercises and interoperability. The signing is only the beginning. Turning political commitments into integrated planning and credible military responses will be the real test. But one thing is already clear. In 2019, Pakistan was struggling to navigate the Saudi-Türkiye divide. In 2026, those three countries are standing together and declaring that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. That is indeed a sign of a changing regional order.