Inside the Makkah defence pact and its regional implications

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye signed a joint defence agreement in Makkah on Friday, wedding allies alarmed at a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters.

Iran and its allies have been firing on Saudi Arabia ‌and other Gulf states, and blockading their energy shipments, since the US and Israel attacked it on February 28 in a major escalation after years of regional tumult.

The "Makkah Joint Defence Agreement" is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and stipulates that an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all, they said in a joint statement.

However, the statement did not give specifics on the commitments each ​had accepted, and it was not clear how far their agreement would bind them to any particular military action in each other's defence.

Here is how it has been received by politicians and analysts so far:

Saudi FM hails pact

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said that the pact signed reflected the depth of their strategic relations.

“The signing by His Royal Highness the Crown Prince, the president of the Republic of Türkiye, and the prime minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan of the Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement confirms the depth of the brotherly and strategic relations among the three countries,” he said in a post on X.

He described the agreement as an “important milestone in the path of defence cooperation.”

The minister said it marked the culmination of a shared desire to unify efforts to address challenges and threats to the region's security and stability.

“The pact would serve our countries and peoples, reflect positively on the entire region, and pave the way for a secure future in which opportunities for development and prosperity are strengthened,” he added.

Separately, Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said the agreement established a framework for a long-term defence partnership among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan.

In a post on X, he said the pact would enhance deterrence, coordination and integration among the three countries while contributing to regional and global security and stability.

Powerful political symbolism

"Three of the Muslim world's most influential states are convening at a moment of heightened uncertainty, demonstrating a growing willingness among regional and middle powers to coordinate ​more closely on security matters," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, a Saudi-based think tank.

"The trilateral framework could strengthen the three countries' collective diplomatic and defence weight while contributing to the emergence of a more regionally driven security architecture," Sager added.

Turkiye has NATO's second-largest military. Saudi Arabia is home to Islam's holiest sites and one of the world's top oil exporters, while Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country.

However, Rayed Krimly, Saudi deputy minister for ​public diplomacy, said in a social media post that the accord dif not represent an effort to establish a military axis or a sectarian bloc.

"Nor is it linked to any nuclear ambitions ​or arms race," he said.

Pact builds on longstanding military ties

The Middle East has been in flames for nearly three years since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.

Israel has waged war in Gaza, invaded ​southern Lebanon and seized territory in Syria as well ​as launching two air campaigns against Iran. ⁠Tehran has fired on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Jordan and Israel.

While Turkiye and Pakistan, on the fringes of the Middle East, have avoided significant direct attacks, both are anxious to calm conflicts that threaten their own security and economies.

For Saudi Arabia, three years of Middle ​East conflicts have imperilled its oil exports and ambitious development plans and drawn big questions over the reliability of its longstanding US security ​umbrella.

Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow ⁠for Middle East Security at the RUSI think tank, said the agreement was focused on counterbalancing Iranian hegemony in the region and building deterrence against Israel rather than moving towards a confrontation with Tehran.

"I think the objective is very much the opposite," Ozcelik said.

Pakistan has provided training and technical assistance to Saudi forces for decades, while Turkiye and Pakistan have exchanged warships and training aircraft. Saudi Arabia is a major purchaser ⁠of drones from ​Turkiye.

Pakistan has deployed about 8,000 troops, fighter jets, drones and an air-defence system to the kingdom and opened negotiations with Kuwait ​to provide security in exchange for energy cooperation and investment.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declined to comment. A spokesperson for India's Foreign Ministry said the pact was a development that the country was closely following. Iran did not immediately comment.