Thus spoke Mohsin Naqvi

The biggest mistake anyone in today's Pakistan can make is to assume that business as usual is ok.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi's shocker of a speech did not come out of nowhere. For months now, things had been slowly piling up in a manner which suggested that, well, business as usual was not cutting it any more. Not in the Centre and not in the provinces. The one-page-fits-all cosy arrangement that defines the power matrix in vogue today may be up for some amendments (no pun intended).

Mohsin Naqvi's most important points were:

a) The present system has collapsed in terms of delivering good governance

b) More administrative units and empowered local governments are essential

c) The Field Marshal will not cross the red line but the politicians have to get together and fix governance because gimmicks (my word, not his) like giving tablets to students won't solve their problems

The speech has generated fervent debate across the country about imminent changes that may be in the offing. Some are speculating that the federal government has become wobbly while others wonder if the provinces are about to see their powerful and cash-rich domains come under renewed pressure. So how exactly did we get here? And where is this situation heading? Here are ten points that may explain.

1. The big reforms favoured by the establishment are clear: (i) Change in the National Finance Commission (NFC) so the federal government has more fiscal space (ii) Administrative and financial empowerment of local governments (iii) Division of the provinces into larger number of administrative units (not based on ethnic or linguistic lines) (iv) Review of the 18th Amendment (less urgent agenda item). The Interior Minister's speech is a signal that the time for endless debates (not that they have been happening either) may be coming to an end.

2. So why now? Three primary reasons: (i) The US-Iran war and its geo-political ramifications have injected a realisation that Pakistan needs to adapt fast to leverage opportunities that may be emerging (ii) The deteriorating security situation has now been linked to governance (DG ISPR said as much in his presser on Friday) (iii) There is a growing sense that the Centre and the provinces do not have much to show in terms of structural reforms half way through the five-year term.

3. What is the lowest hanging fruit? All agree it's the local governments. On paper everything is ready. The Supreme Court has also reiterated in a judgement that it is the constitutional requirement for the provinces to ensure empowered local bodies. The key word is "empowered". None of the provinces have done so. Not because they have any valid arguments for this delay, or a principled opposition to the concept – no none of these – but the sole reason is that they do not want to delegate power and authority below. They have dragged their feet for years, and will most certainly continue to do so if they have their way.

4. The Constitution gives the provinces powers to legislate the shape of their local governments. The legislation they have done may not satisfy the requirements of Article 140-A which says clearly that provinces must transfer political, administrative and financial responsibility to local representatives. There may be renewed push to ensure provincial compliance on this issue.

5. The scope and scale of frustration with weak governance goes beyond the big-ticket items mentioned in point 1 above. The fact is that the performance card of the federal government on desperately needed structural reforms is hardly stellar. The business-as-usual approach is visible everywhere. Between the capacity issues of ministers and petty personal and institutional (and service) agendas of bureaucrats, governance is measured more in meetings held than in outcomes achieved, services delivered and reforms undertaken.

6. Privatisation is one of the most urgent reforms on the table. It is led by one of the most competent people in government today. Yet it is behind schedule. Why? The primary reason is that ministries don't want to lose control over State Owned Enterprises even though they are losing billions of rupees annually. Why do they resist? The answer should shock every Pakistani: people in control of ministries do not want to lose the perks and privileges that come with controlling these SOEs. It is as simple as that. And as petty as that. This is only one example of business-as-usual failure of good governance that is breeding deep frustration everywhere.

7. Provinces have more power, more money and more space for governance than the federal government could ever dream of (which is one reason the Centre is dreaming of it). With all this power, money and space, what good governance have the provinces delivered in real terms? They continue to fare poorly on necessary reforms like establishing empowered local governments, taxing the agriculture sector and making significant and measurable progress in education and health sectors (35 per cent of total school-going age children remain out-of-school, while HIV continues to spread alarmingly across the country). The business-as-usual approach is becoming unaffordable by the day.

8. All this frustration is driven by an unsaid compact: power in exchange for good governance. The logic was that experienced political parties would deliver performance if they were brought under the One Page tent and given space. That compact made much sense to many people back then. Not so much now. There's a growing realisation that those who are products of a stale, archaic and elite-captured system are not likely to change it.

9. Will the ruling coalition play along? There is some resistance, but it is unprincipled and feeble. There will be some give-and-take but the structural changes within the governance set-up of Pakistan are now going to happen.

10. Will these changes produce the desired results? The past does not inspire confidence. But no times are the same, and no framework of analysis can work well unless injected with the personalities of those driving these changes.

Business-as-usual ain't gonna work no more. If in doubt, ask Mohsin Naqvi.