Pakistan's water crisis also lies underground

Since India announced that it would hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, debate in Pakistan has focused overwhelmingly on river flows, dams, and the future of one of the world's most successful water-sharing agreements. Yet beneath this debate lies an ignored crisis. Pakistan's greatest water challenge increasingly lies not in the rivers crossing its borders but in the groundwater beneath its fields.

The IWT governs the surface waters of the Indus basin and contains no framework for groundwater. Yet groundwater has become the backbone of Pakistan's agriculture. As canal supplies have become less reliable, millions of farmers have turned to tube-wells for irrigation. Across much of Punjab and Balochistan, however, aquifers are being depleted because water is being extracted far faster than it is naturally replenished.

The current debate risks creating the impression that Pakistan's long-term water security depends primarily on securing river flows. It does not. Water security depends equally on how countries manage resources within their own borders. Bangladesh offers a useful warning. Although it receives far more rainfall than Pakistan, decades of intensive irrigation have severely depleted groundwater in the drought-prone Barind region, raising pumping costs, threatening agricultural livelihoods, and forcing restrictions on groundwater extraction. If this can happen in a relatively water-rich country, Pakistan's challenge is even more urgent.

As groundwater levels fall, farmers must drill deeper wells and pump from greater depths, increasing production costs and squeezing already narrow profit margins. The consequences extend well beyond agriculture. Groundwater depletion threatens food security, rural livelihoods and economic resilience while accelerating rural migration.

Pakistan's National Water Policy rightly recognises the need for stronger groundwater governance. Ironically, the country already possesses one of the world's largest artificial groundwater recharge systems. Seepage from the Indus Basin Irrigation System continuously replenishes underlying aquifers. The problem is not the absence of recharge, but that groundwater is being withdrawn much faster than natural and artificial recharge can replace it.

The priority, therefore, is to both increase recharge and reduce extraction. Restoring village ponds, constructing small check dams, and developing recharge basins for capturing monsoon rainfall and floodwaters would help replenish depleted aquifers while reducing flood risks. The challenge is no longer recognising the importance of groundwater recharge. International donors and even multinational corporations are now investing in such recharge projects. However, the real gap is scale. Pakistan's recharge efforts remain fragmented while groundwater depletion is occurring across entire aquifers.

Agricultural policy requires fundamental reform. Continuing to promote water-intensive crops in severely water-stressed regions is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. Large-scale corporate farming should be accompanied by strict groundwater regulation to prevent commercial agriculture from accelerating aquifer depletion. Farmers should instead be supported through research, extension services and market incentives to diversify towards less water-intensive crops.

Technology is not a cure-all. While drip and sprinkler irrigation can significantly improve water productivity, subsidising solar-powered tube-wells without regulating groundwater extraction risks making overpumping even worse by reducing the cost of irrigation. Climate-smart technologies must therefore be accompanied by effective groundwater governance.

The future of the IWT will remain important for regional stability. But regardless of what happens to the treaty, the country's long-term water security also hinges on decisions made within its own borders. Pakistan's greatest freshwater reserves lie underground. Protecting these reserves requires shifting the national conversation beyond transboundary rivers and paying greater attention to sustainable groundwater management.