What happens next with the US-Saudi nuclear deal?

A US-Saudi deal to establish a civilian nuclear programme in the Gulf country looked like a triumph for the kingdom, but just hours after its announcement, President Donald Trump revealed a major caveat.

With Trump saying the deal is "totally subject" to Saudi Arabia normalising relations with Israel, here is a rundown of where things stand.

Has Trump already killed the deal?

After signing the agreement, Saudi Arabia appeared to score a diplomatic victory and be on the brink of securing its years-long dream of launching a civilian nuclear energy programme.

But just hours after Saudi Arabia signed the landmark agreement, Trump announced a new caveat to the deal via Truth Social.

The nuclear agreement "will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords", Trump wrote.

That could be a nonstarter for Saudi Arabia, which insists that there can be no ties with Israel unless a pathway to establish a Palestinian state is hammered out first.

"If DC tries to force normalisation on Riyadh, it's not likely to work out very well," H.A. Hellyer, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told AFP.

"Israel has the most toxic brand it has ever had. Would Saudi decide to do a complete 180 on what it has declared for the past three years, or thirty years? Quite dubious."

Trump's latest curveball is potentially a stunning reversal for the kingdom's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was on the verge of cementing a major diplomatic and economic triumph for the kingdom.

Embracing nuclear technology is in line with Saudi policy to address the rapid increase in energy demand in the kingdom while reducing "the reliance on hydrocarbons in order to use petroleum for higher value purposes and export", according to the energy ministry.

If approved by Congress, the deal would also likely provide an economic windfall for US energy companies and further undergird Riyadh's ironclad ties with the US.

"The alternative was not a Saudi Arabia without nuclear ambitions, it was a Saudi nuclear programme anchored in Russian or Chinese supply chains, with no American visibility, no commercial foothold for Westinghouse and no structural leverage," Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi security analyst and researcher, told AFP.

Where do things stand now?

While the actual text of the deal has yet to be released, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Thursday that appropriate safeguards against nuclear proliferation would be cemented in the agreement.

"We will ensure that in order to get congressional approval, we're going to need to have those safeguards in place," Rubio said on the sidelines of a summit in Manila.

Read More: Trump says US-Saudi nuclear deal conditional on country joining Abraham Accords

But there is likely to be harsh criticism of the agreement, along with worries that the move could further destabilise a region already upended by years of war.

Israel, however, is likely celebrating Trump's latest announcement.

For years, the US had sought to condition a nuclear deal and a US-Saudi defence pact on normalisation with Israel, and Trump has all but ensured that this policy will remain in place.

And then there's Iran.

The announcement comes as the US is fighting a war with Iran that began in large part over concerns about Tehran's nuclear programme and enrichment levels of its uranium stockpiles, still a key point of contention in now-stalled peace talks.

The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported that one provision in the US-Saudi deal would potentially see US companies build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia.

However, Trump appeared to pour cold water on the idea, saying in his Truth Social post: "There will be no enrichment of material!"

The US Energy Department made no mention of such a provision and did not offer comment when asked about it by AFP.

What does it mean for the region?

For decades, US policymakers have worried about the potential consequences of the spread of nuclear technology and weaponisation of energy programmes, fearing it could spur arms races in places like the Middle East.

For some analysts, the deal is part of a new emerging security context that has begun forming in the wake of the ongoing war with Iran.

"The broader signal is that the post-war Middle East is generating a new set of rules on nuclear cooperation, security guarantees and great-power competition simultaneously," Alghannam said.