Oil gains over 5% as US reinstates naval blockade

Goldman Sachs says expanding pipeline capacity in ME could shield over 60% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from future Hor

HOUSTON:

il prices jumped over 5% on Monday after US President Donald Trump said the United States was reinstating a naval blockade on Iran, reigniting concerns over energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were up $4.06, or 5.34%, to $80.07 at 1644 GMT, while US WTI crude was up $3.74, or 5.24%, to $75.15 a barrel. Oil gained after Trump said the US was reinstating the blockade and that the United States would be reimbursed 20% on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed military exchanges with Iran.

Iran's top joint military command had earlier said it would not allow Washington to intervene in the management of the strait and any attempt by the US to transit without its authorisation would be confronted.

The UN's shipping agency is against Trump's proposal, saying it opposes any fees for straits used in international navigation and stressing that there is no legal basis for introducing mandatory tolls on strait transits.

As the prospect of long-term disruption looms, analysts expect countries to work on ways to permanently bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Goldman Sachs estimated that expanding pipeline capacity in the Middle East could shield more than 60% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from any future Hormuz disruptions by end-2028.

The bank's base-case forecast assumes pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz will rise by 3.8 million bpd by end-2027 and 7.3 million bpd cumulatively by end-2028, taking total effective bypass capacity to more than 14 million bpd by end-2028.