Back to war?

The resumption of hostilities between Iran and the US are quite unfortunate. President Donald Trump's off-the-cuff remarks have apparently strained the newly found trust with the Islamic Republic. Likewise, Iran positioning itself as the 'sole manager' of the Strait of Hormuz has torpedoed the confidence it had built with regional member states. The launch of dozens of sorties by IRGC over Bahrain and Kuwait in response to US military strikes, coupled with Washington's revocation of a licence allowing Tehran to sell oil, has literally brought the fragile ceasefire to its knees.

Compounding the misery were the remarks by the US president in Ankara, where he declared ahead of a NATO summit that the "deal signed with Iran is over". This is an outcome of brinkmanship and necessitates resorting back to diplomacy, as policy somersaults are once again impacting global supply chains, sending oil prices surging by $3 per barrel. The Iranians, nonetheless, are out with a long list of grievances, blaming the US for breaching the MoU that promised a comprehensive settlement in 60 days. The theatre of conflict is Hormuz wherein the new regulations introduced by Iran are being taken with a pinch of salt. For many, it is a deviation of International Law and protocol on territorial waters. Demining the waters at the mouth of the Arabian Sea and enabling all vessels to pass through without ado require confidence-building measures, which can only be attained if peace talks progress in all sincerity. The lifting of sanctions on Iran and its leverage over the strait are also interrelated.

The way forward for both Iran and the US is to stick to the ceasefire decorum and continue trusting the good offices of Pakistan and Qatar to broker a perpetual end to the war. This see-saw of uncertainty is unbecoming of mediation ethics and is ultimately self-defeating. NATO member states have an opportunity to prevail upon Trump and make him realise that torpedoing the hard-earned diplomatic concessions would be suicidal. They are tantamount to mutually assured destruction.