Politics in the time of populism

The recent exchange of barbs between the Italian Prime Minister and the American President has been in the news in Italy and in many other countries.

The spat started with a photograph of Trump and Meloni together taken at the recent G7 Summit. President Trump says that he agreed to the photograph as Meloni begged him to do so, and because he had pity on her. The Italian PM was quick to respond saying neither she, nor the Italian people, would ever beg anyone for anything.

The exchanges between the two has since continued and been getting harsher. Meloni told Trump not to worry about helping her to boost her popularity, and instead worry about his own falling poll numbers. Others in MAGA, such as Steve Bannon, have also weighed in on the side of Trump. In Italy, there was a chorus of support for Meloni's stance from all sections of Italian society.

The two had initially been great friends. Meloni had been very vocal about her ideological and strategic alignment with Trump, and had been posturing as a bridge between the US and its allies in Europe. However, the relationship began to fall apart when Trump started attacking the Pope. As head of a predominantly Catholic country, Meloni was, in some sense, forced to defend Leo XIV. Things got worse when Italy, along with several other European countries, did not support the US-Israeli war with Iran. In particular, Italy did not allow the US to use it base in Sicily as a staging post for the war.

As is the case with many high-profile political developments, it is worth trying to look beyond what lies at the surface and to speculate about what might underlie this rather public exchange of insults.

So, let's start.

Conjecture 1: After the disagreements between Italy and the US over the Pope and the use of the airbase in Sicily, it is certainly plausible that Meloni had asked Trump to be photographed together to show that they were still allies. Although I have not attended any summit, I can well imagine that this would be a perfectly normal request – a photo shoot to convey a political message.

Conjecture 2: Trump, struggling with the flailing negotiations with Iran, wanted a distraction. The public demeaning of a close ally seemed to be a good way to start a high-profile tit-for-tat.

Conjecture 3: Meloni also needed a distraction. The economy had not been doing well; she had recently lost an important flagship referendum; and her coalition government was losing support to a new extreme right wing party. Given these recent political setbacks, she was more than happy to play the game, posturing as a figurehead of Italian national pride in the face of a bully.

Conjecture 4: Both Trump and Meloni represent a new generation of populists who make intense use of social media. For both, the direct communication with "the base" is second nature. The millions of views and likes generated by their exchange is exactly what counts as success for both of them.

Conjecture 5: This kind of public exchanges will continue in one form or another as it is now part of the DNA of present-day politics. It certainly distracts from the real problems of the economy, the growing social and financial inequalities in society and the structural shifts towards rearmament. What a pity!

This is politics for you in the time of populism!