'G-B elections mirror 2024 contest'

Observers cite PTI exclusion, PPP win, and continuation of 2024 poll pattern

LAHORE:

The Gilgit-Baltistan elections were a rerun of the 2024 general elections, in which one major political party was effectively kept out of the electoral process, leading political analysts have said, while noting that PPP victory remains a win for a ruling coalition party.

With the PTI, JUI-F and the victorious PPP all raising concerns over alleged election management, most political observers described the contest as a repeat of the 2024 elections. However, they added that despite the circumstances surrounding the polls, the results should serve as a wake-up call for the PML-N, reflecting a level of public discontent in G-B similar to that seen elsewhere in the country.

Analysts argued that PTI was excluded from the electoral process and that every possible step was taken to achieve that objective. Nevertheless, they maintained that, beyond PTI's exclusion, the results broadly reflected the actual popularity trends in G-B.

Pildat President Ahmad Bilal Mehboob said a pre-election survey conducted in G-B showed PTI as the most popular party, followed by the PPP and then the PML-N. "If PTI is removed from the equation, the election results are broadly consistent with the survey findings. However, excluding the most popular party and then calling the elections fair would be nonsensical," he said.

He added that the results were consistent with G-B's electoral history, where the party ruling at the Centre typically secures a majority. "Even in this case, the PPP, which is part of the ruling coalition at the Centre and holds key portfolios, emerged victorious. To claim that these results have broken the tradition of the ruling party winning in G-B is a laughable proposition," he remarked.

Political analyst Rasul Bakhsh Rais said the outcome appeared to be part of a broader political understanding. "There are unresolved issues between the PPP and PML-N, including the NFC Award. It is possible that allowing the PPP to dominate in G-B was part of a political arrangement. Both parties are in power, and an election victory for either effectively means a government aligned with the federal setup," he said.

Rais added that the PPP currently appears closer to the power centre than the PML-N and that the elections did not establish any new political trend in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Former caretaker Punjab chief minister and political commentator Hasan Askari Rizvi said the results should be a cause for concern for the PML-N, which leads the federal government.

"If the PML-N believes these were entirely fair elections, it has some serious introspection to do," he said. "The sentiment witnessed in Gilgit-Baltistan is reflective of broader public sentiment across the country. The PPP, despite being part of the government, has managed to distance itself from governance failures and shift much of the blame onto the PML-N."