It's the oil, stupid

North Korea has a nuclear weapon, and it isn't really a friend of the United States; in fact, while the war was on between Iran and the US-Israel duo, Kim Jong Un decided to launch a battery of twelve missiles in the sea next to South Korea, announcing to the US and the world that he would better not be forgotten. A meme during the last few weeks shows Kim standing next to a long-range missile launcher and smiling away to the world with an inscribed message, "Good wishes from Pyongyang". Almost as if you want to be respected in today's world, or at least be safe from predation, this (nuclear weapon) can help. Yet the US is sanguine about North Korea being a nuclear-capable country. Power begets deference. Nuclear weapons-capable nations keep a respectable distance from each other and know how to coexist.

Should Iran going nuclear, or the threat of it, bother China, Russia, or the US? Probably not. These nations can overwhelm Iran even if it were nuclear. Perhaps, Pakistan, India and Israel would. Pakistan and India for being tied into a contiguous evolving ring of middling nuclear-capable nations. And then the spectre of Turkey following suit in due course, which will complete the chain. Add China, India and Pakistan's northern contiguous extension, and you can see how Armageddon shapes. Iran and Turkey going nuclear will mean Saudi Arabia going the same way. Egypt will catch up, too. And a real spectre emerges. But the US remains safely tucked away from confrontation. Israel would be the only one finding itself facing a triple threat – Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Rather than the US, Israel would not like Iran to go nuclear. Donald Trump is in it for the company in this war. Iran has been a thorn in the side of Israel, and that is the only tickle that the US may carry for various reasons.

This Trump presidency has been unique. His team is chosen for its ultra-right credentials. Intellectually, they may not belong there, but in spirit, they are mostly go-getters beyond the constraints of a rule-based order, or diplomatic niceties, or a concern for how it might affect the rest of the world. This became obvious in the ongoing fracas in West Asia with the possibility of blowing up the region, and the certainty of how the global economy is on the verge of a complete collapse. Kept long in the war, superpower hubris can push the US to any extent, and Trump is not the man to shy away from the ultimate spectre and being the Truman, of low yield though. If an off-ramp offers itself, not taking it will only mean that foolishness and hard-headedness have prevailed.

Trump wished to secure his neighbourhood from any external influences, and in that he wanted Venezuela cleansed of any Chinese presence or influence – China was/is one of Venezuela's major buyers of oil. Panama, which has exclusive rights over the canal and an oversized Chinese influence, was the next. She quickly caved in before American power. China must now buy Venezuelan oil with American concurrence and traverse the Panama Canal under conditions imposed by the US. Next, he wanted Iran and Cuba sanitised of the persistent threat. He did Iran in June of 2025, hoping he would reap the fruits of his labour, but the results continued to disappoint him. Netanyahu raised a furore and pushed Trump into a war with Iran that Trump would have waited for a bit longer.

Trump, however, went along for other reasons too. And chief among those was his wish to control the oil markets of the world. Venezuela and its vast oil reserves in his control, Russia sanctioned out of the market, the Middle East, veritably in Trump's corner, Iran was the only other storehouse of energy that Trump wanted either out of the market or under his control. He also wanted Europe to buy his gas – the US is the world's top producer of natural gas. Most European gas used to come from Russia till it was cut off as a source. Europe then sourced natural gas from Qatar. With the Straits of Hormuz closed, Qatar's gas also went offline. A heavily natural-gas-dependent European economy can only get its gas from the US. Or, Russia, were they to somehow close the war in Ukraine and settle nicely with the US.

So if Iran, because of the war, shut the Straits, and attacked energy infrastructure in the GCC, or got targeted by Israel and the US on its energy infrastructure, the only living source in the world that remained was the American storehouse of oil and gas with its willingness to provide to the rest of the world at prices which would only hike for availability and supply chain disruptions, and to the customers that Trump would like to sell to. Of these, China would only be the absolute last in preference. And then, under strict control, conditions and management. This is the war that Trump would like to fight last. Still, these are the preparatory manoeuvres, akin to preparing the battleground: slow China's economic growth, weaken it financially, make it appear vulnerable, and whittle away its confidence to stand up to the US with any assurance. So, while what happens in the Middle East may be Israel's strategic end, it is the USA's stepping stone to the ultimate showdown in the South China Sea. Hopefully, Trump's tenure would have ended before the moment reaches.

Happy tidings, though, are on offer. Only fools will miss the opportunity. A war that would be the doomsday has a window open. Pakistan seems to be at the centre of bringing together two diametrically opposing lists of demands from the two sides into a complementary whole, serving a win-win for both. Stalemates usually enable such conflation. This will need diplomatic trapeze, trust-building, and the heft to balance expectations. The US can win but hasn't won; Iran hasn't lost, but not won. This can infuse both, agitated hubris and misplaced fortitude. The world at large and humanity don't matter to either. Instead, each side's resident capacity and appetite for war will decide how much are they ready to concede. Concede they must, to make it proportionate, even if not entirely equitable. Iran can and should live without nuclear weapons; it will make the world and the region safe. She must, though, have all sanctions lifted and cease being the pariah it was made to be. Israel should be tied into the two-state construct if it needs the assurance of armed groups not haranguing its existence. The waterways and the trade through them should never be an instrument of coercion or strangulation.

If all sides agree, a priority international fund should be established to rebuild the infrastructure destroyed in the war through a sustained, multi-year effort – something like the Marshal Plan but with a broader contributory base. Only then can a ceasefire hold, and peace be abiding. We need to stop this war.