Deepening cotton crisis

The underwhelming cotton crop for the 2025-26 season reflects the uncertainty that will face the textile sector in the coming weeks and months, as supplies of raw materials will be significantly lower than expected, and imports may now be significantly delayed due to the Iran war's impact on international shipping. The shortage also exposes serious flaws in the government's planning and drafting of economic projections — even if we set aside the impact of the Iran war, which was a low-likelihood event.

Against a government-set target of 10.2 million bales, the country managed to produce a meagre 5.6 million bales — a staggering 45% shortfall. This is not a statistical anomaly, but a systemic collapse. Data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association paints a grim picture of policy failure. Punjab, the country's agricultural heartland, missed its target by over 51%, producing only 2.69 million bales. Sindh and Balochistan were also well off their targets, though they did significantly better than Punjab overall. While the government may blame climate change-related weather events, we cannot ignore the impact of administrative and policy failures. After all, cotton yields have been erratic, at best, over the past decade, even in years when there were no major climate events.

The most immediate economic impact is now the need to import about 5 million bales of cotton, which will cost upwards of $3 billion in precious foreign exchange reserves. These imports will also push up production costs, which could impact demand for Pakistani textile products. While there are no other real short-term solutions, the long-term goal must be sustained investment, innovation and farmer support. Research into high-yield seed varieties, better pest control, irrigation efficiency and farmer incentives must also increase if we are to ensure a consistent supply of the country's most strategic crop.