India's water war

Pakistan's water storage projects could go beyond what had been agreed under the IWT

Under normal circumstances, India's plans to increase water storage capacity on rivers in Kashmir and Punjab would not raise significant concerns outside of alarmist circles. After all, New Delhi does have the right to take several measures under the Indus Waters Treaty. Unfortunately, India unilaterally suspended the treaty in April 2025 as part of its response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack – one of the many examples of the lawless, authoritarian regime in New Delhi ignoring India's own laws and treaty obligations.

In light of India's claim that IWT stands suspended, Pakistan has legitimate concerns that the water storage projects will go beyond what had been agreed under the treaty and could infringe upon Pakistan's water rights. The concerns are also not misplaced. Prime Minister Modi's 12 years in charge are littered with examples of India violating or otherwise pushing the boundary of what is acceptable.

The raw contempt of his regime for bilateral agreements and international law is best illustrated by the fact that at the height of the Indo-Pak war of 1965, India was still making payments to Pakistan under the IWT, not out of any love for Pakistan, but because the government of the day wanted to be seen as a responsible actor. Modi, on the contrary, prefers to operate like a supervillain.

It is clear that the Indian government is itching for a water war. The planned expansion could quadruple India's holding capacity on the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Not only would this potentially affect Pakistani farmers, but it could also allow New Delhi to engineer floods during the monsoon season.

Field Marshal Asim Munir recently warned New Delhi that if India builds a dam on our rivers, "we will destroy it", adding that "the Indus River is not the Indians' family property." But while such a response would obviously destroy any dam, it is not a solution. Pakistan's geographic location means that any solution to the water dispute must be diplomatic, perhaps by leveraging the influence of our allies, because a water war, like a shooting war, will have no real winners.