Population surge

Pakistan's demographic trajectory is rapidly approaching a breaking point. With an estimated population growth rate of 2.5%, Pakistan stands on the brink of a socio-economic crisis that risks overwhelming its institutions and its prospects for inclusive growth. If this pace continues unchecked, our population — currently around 250 million — could surge to 400 million in the coming decades. For a country already struggling with unemployment and limited fiscal space, it is an existential threat.

The government alone cannot create enough jobs for Pakistan's expanding workforce. Public sector employment cannot absorb the millions of new entrants each year. Instead, the onus must shift to the private sector. Islamabad has regularly acknowledged this need on paper, but translating rhetoric into reality demands a strategic policy realignment. The private sector must be positioned as the engine of job creation. Without this shift, Pakistan risks a future where joblessness and economic stagnation become entrenched. Lower fertility rates over time have proved to reduce dependency ratios, giving policymakers greater fiscal space to invest in health and education. A slower population growth rate also eases the strain on job markets, making private sector expansion more viable and sustainable.

Pakistan's 2.5% annual growth rate is unsustainable. In contrast, neighbouring countries like India and Bangladesh have witnessed declines in fertility rates as they progress through demographic transitions. Even Sri Lanka, with its smaller population, has managed to keep growth rates in check through investments in health services and family planning. These nations, despite their own economic challenges, have effectively leveraged population control as a pillar of economic strategy.

By resisting this reality, Pakistan is jeopardising its future. So what must Pakistan do? First, the government must prioritise and mainstream population-control policies with the same urgency it accords to economic reforms. Second, policymakers must cultivate an enabling environment for the private sector to flourish. Third, economic planning must be anchored in demographic realities. This must be the way to go.