PML-N eyes big win in by-polls today

LAHORE:

The PML-N is heading into Sunday's by-elections with confidence, expecting no surprises as it remains largely a one-horse race across Punjab.

The polling on 13 constituencies—six National Assembly seats and seven Punjab Assembly seats—will start from 8am to 5pm without interruption. The district administration, in coordination with the electoral watchdog, has made comprehensive arrangements for logistics and transport to ensure a smooth and orderly polling process.

The constituencies where the by-elections are taking place include NA-18 Haripur, NA-96 Faisal­ab­ad-II, NA-104 Faisalabad-X, NA-143 Sahiwal-III, NA-185 D.G Khan-II, NA-129 Lahore-XIII, PP-73 Sar­go­dha-III, PP-98 Faisalabad-I, PP-115 Faisalabad-XVIII, PP-116 Faisal­abad-XIX, PP-203 Sahi­wal-VI, PP-269 Muzaffar­garh-II, and PP-87 Mianwali-III.

With most contests shaped by low turnout or predictable margins, the province's political temperature remains relatively steady, except in a handful of constituencies where competition is expected to tighten.

Among the seats up for grabs, the most closely watched remains NA-129 Lahore, the only constituency where the PTI is formally contesting.

PTI had boycotted the rest on principle, citing its rejection of the disqualification of its lawmakers in May 9-related cases, which caused the vacancies.

However, NA-129 fell vacant after the death of sitting MNA Mian Azhar, placing it outside that boycott category.

PTI's Hammad Azhar claimed that Form 45s were "missing" from the election material handed to presiding officers by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) ahead of today's by-election in Lahore's NA-129 constituency.

"We are receiving reports that multiple presiding officers are missing Form 45s in the election materials they have received from ECP (Election Commission of Pakistan) for the by-elections of tomorrow. This is a serious violation of the electoral process," he claimed in a post on X.

The alarm came after he had earlier issued "important instructions" for his party's polling agents about the forms.

"When the bags containing election materials are opened in the morning, make sure that the Forms 45 and Forms 46 in them are blank and shown to you. This is most important."

The PTI leader stressed the importance of the polling agents' presence during the polling and the counting processes. "The polling boxes must not be out of sight at any moment."

Hammad further told the agents that it was their "right to obtain the Form-45 [filled] as per the count", and that any staff who obstructed this would be liable to strict legal punishment.

He directed all PTI workers at the party camps outside the polling stations to remain there after the polling had ended and "peacefully follow the presiding officer to the returning officer's (RO) office".

From PML-N, Hafiz Mian Nouman is in the field, while PTI has put forward Chaudhary Arslan. Initially, Hammad Azhar was expected to run, but owing to his legal battles, he stepped aside and brought Arslan into the race.

According to a PTI office-bearer, Arslan "at best can give tough competition. His winning would be a surprise".

He added that if Arslan even manages to push the contest close, "it would be akin to winning the seat," stressing that had Hammad contested, "it would have been a different story altogether".

The race also features Bajash Khan Niazi, owner of a Niazi Buses subsidiary, who has been attempting to draw PTI voters by presenting himself as a PTI-backed candidate and using PTI colours and Imran Khan branding.

Another constituency drawing attention is NA-185 D.G. Khan, where PPP's Dost Muhammad Khosa and PML-N's Mahmood Qadir Khan Leghari are locked in a competitive fight.

Despite running on a PPP ticket, Khosa has managed to tap into the PTI vote bank. Local analysts believe that if he succeeds in securing meaningful PTI support, "he might even spring a surprise".

Conversely, Leghari, benefiting from the advantage of the incumbent government and what analysts describe as "unwavering support of establishment behind this setup", is widely seen as a strong contender for the top spot.

A similarly tight contest is expected in PP-87 Mianwali, where independent candidate Nawabzada Ayaz Ali Khan, presenting himself as PTI-backed, faces PML-N's Ali Haider Noor Khan.

Despite PTI's deep roots in the region, Nawabzada carries a disadvantage: he contested the last elections from a different district as an IPP candidate. Locals see him as an "imposter", yet PTI's heavy support base and PML-N's weak local network keep the seat highly competitive.

PP-203 Sahiwal-IV is another constituency worth tracking, with PML-N's Muhammad Hanif Jutt competing against independent candidate Falak Sher Dogar, widely viewed as a de facto PTI candidate.

Falak is considered a strong local heavyweight with the potential to upset Jutt, though analysts note that Jutt's entrenched family base, combined with the PML-N–establishment advantage, makes him the likely victor.

It is pertinent to mention that PML-N has withdrawn its candidate from Muzaffargarh in favour of PPP.

However, Iqbal Khan Pitafi, whom the party initially awarded the ticket, remains in the race against the PPP contender, making the seat another one to watch.

Elsewhere, Raja Daniyal Riaz, son of Raja Riaz, is reported to be in a comfortable position from NA-104. Muhammad Tufail Jutt from NA-143 Sahiwal-III is also believed to hold a strong lead going into polling day.

In Punjab Assembly contests, Azad Ali Tabassum from PP-98 Faisalabad-I, Mian Sultan Ali Ranjha from PP-73 Sargodha, Muhammad Tahir Pervaiz from PP-115 and Rana Ahmed Shehryar from PP-116 Faisalabad are all expected to secure victories today.

Troops deployed

Meanwhile, the interior ministry has already approved the deployment of the Pakistan Army and civil armed forces for security in 13 national and provincial assembly constituencies, where by-elections are being held.

A notification issued by the interior ministry said the approval followed requests from the ECP.

The civil armed forces will be deployed as "second-tier responders (standby/quick reaction)," whereas the troops of the Pakistan Army will serve as "third-tier responders (quick reaction force)" from Friday through Nov 24 (Monday).

The exact numbers will be determined by home departments and the ECP based on ground assessments.

Meanwhile, the ECP on Saturday barred media outlets from broadcasting unofficial results of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab by-elections until one hour after the close of polls.

The commission directed that only Returning Officers are authorised to announce official results, warning that premature reporting could mislead the public.

It further stated that media organisations must not air or publish unofficial results until at least one hour after the close of polling, and any results released thereafter must be clearly marked as unofficial and incomplete.

The ECP cautioned that violations of these instructions would be referred to the relevant authorities for disciplinary action. It reiterated that the final and official result of any constituency will only be issued by the concerned ROs.